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Korean housing bubble soon to burst?
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chaz47



Joined: 11 Sep 2003

PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 6:50 pm    Post subject: Korean housing bubble soon to burst? Reply with quote

I've been hearing that the Korean housing bubble is soon to burst. This makes me leery of keeping my savings here in the ROK. Now, mind you I definitely do not see the US as a safe haven for my acorns either.

What do you guys think? Where is a good place to stash cash internationally?

I have been considering Thailand as I'll probably end up there eventually anyway in years to come. And also, being a primarily tourism-based economy, aren't they likely to weather most economic downturns fairly well? I mean, not all the world's economies are likely to bottom at the same time and tourists from all over the world flock there. So, while not a 'powerhouse' economy, my guess is that it's pretty stable.

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RangerMcGreggor



Joined: 12 Jan 2011
Location: Somewhere in Korea

PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Considering how many abandoned apartment complexes I see... I thought it already bursted
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T-J



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae

PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


That thing back in '97.... how did that start again?





Oh yea... now I remember....


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis
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creeper1



Joined: 30 Jan 2007

PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If highly trained economists can't predict the timing of a bubble bursting what makes you think a bunch of TEFLers can?

Spread your risk - shares, real estate, gold, commodities. They won't all go down.
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There will be no bust in the town I'm living in. You can pick up a pretty nice 3/4 bedroom apartment for under 200-million won. Can't get much cheaper than that.
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doomsday prophecies are so fashionable now. The darker the better.
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Lucas



Joined: 11 Sep 2012

PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Doomsday prophecies are so fashionable now. The darker the better.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25108439

Not in the UK!
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meangradin



Joined: 10 Mar 2006

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reports of the bubble have been around for years and yet things are pretty stable. Also, I think a Korean bubble would be far less severe than in the west as the Korean govt. would pour beaucoup won in to the market to keep it as stable as possible. Will there be a correction? Most assuredly, but utter collapse, I doubt it. In Ulsan, prices continue to rise to the point that he most desirable place now goes for over 25 m/pyg. This despite massive new developments everywhere within the city. Finally, as one poster mentioned, real estate in Korea is a pretty good deal, especially in busan.
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Unposter



Joined: 04 Jun 2006

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have actually read that housing prices are starting to go up; some people think Korean real estate prices have already hit bottom and are in the process of rebounding. The main reason is that key money or cheonsae has sky rocketed making purchasing a home much more financially reasonably.

What TJ was alluding to is that the 97 economic crisis started in Thailand when they had problems paying back their loans so maybe Thailand is not the best basket to put your eggs.

Korea has done a pretty good job of weathering international financial storms so far so it may be a safer place than you think.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I' not sure Korean (Seoul) real estate prices have moved at all in the past 5 years. Seem really stagnant to me (but chunsae is growing like its on... steroids) Wink
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The bubble has already partially bursted. The prices for apts are going down in many areas and apt sales are also down in new buildings.

The apt we own in Busan has not gained in value that much in the past few years and it is in a good area. The flip side is that we got it for cheaper when we bought it because prices were already down by a fair margin back then.
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cabeza



Joined: 29 Sep 2012

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not usually a grammar nazi, but you are the second person now to say the bubble "bursted".
It's burst/burst/burst isn't it? I've never seen the past simple or particple as "bursted". Is this some weird Americanism?
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 8:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The bubble has burst, or it popped.

All is well.
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unposter wrote:
What TJ was alluding to is that the 97 economic crisis started in Thailand when they had problems paying back their loans so maybe Thailand is not the best basket to put your eggs.

Korea has done a pretty good job of weathering international financial storms so far so it may be a safer place than you think.

And I believe Korea also has amasses a huge amount in foreign reserves. After their experiences from 1997, they've stocked up, and continue to, ready to defend their economy.
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KimchiNinja



Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

creeper1 wrote:
If highly trained economists can't predict the timing of a bubble bursting what makes you think a bunch of TEFLers can?

Spread your risk - shares, real estate, gold, commodities. They won't all go down.


Yeah that's good advice.

You can't time the market; there are imbalances, but we don't know when they will correct.

That said, there are signs to be seen before the masses catch on (like little tremors before a big earthquake, most people don't notice). I watched subprime from 2002 to 2007 like a hawk, mid to late '07 there were clear signs something was wrong, but most people just weren't paying attention. Takes a lot of time to stay on it though...
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