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chaz47

Joined: 11 Sep 2003
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Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 6:50 pm Post subject: Korean housing bubble soon to burst? |
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I've been hearing that the Korean housing bubble is soon to burst. This makes me leery of keeping my savings here in the ROK. Now, mind you I definitely do not see the US as a safe haven for my acorns either.
What do you guys think? Where is a good place to stash cash internationally?
I have been considering Thailand as I'll probably end up there eventually anyway in years to come. And also, being a primarily tourism-based economy, aren't they likely to weather most economic downturns fairly well? I mean, not all the world's economies are likely to bottom at the same time and tourists from all over the world flock there. So, while not a 'powerhouse' economy, my guess is that it's pretty stable.
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RangerMcGreggor
Joined: 12 Jan 2011 Location: Somewhere in Korea
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Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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Considering how many abandoned apartment complexes I see... I thought it already bursted |
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T-J

Joined: 10 Oct 2008 Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae
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creeper1
Joined: 30 Jan 2007
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Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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If highly trained economists can't predict the timing of a bubble bursting what makes you think a bunch of TEFLers can?
Spread your risk - shares, real estate, gold, commodities. They won't all go down. |
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jvalmer

Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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There will be no bust in the town I'm living in. You can pick up a pretty nice 3/4 bedroom apartment for under 200-million won. Can't get much cheaper than that. |
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Stan Rogers
Joined: 20 Aug 2010
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Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:22 pm Post subject: |
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Doomsday prophecies are so fashionable now. The darker the better. |
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Lucas
Joined: 11 Sep 2012
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meangradin

Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:18 am Post subject: |
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Reports of the bubble have been around for years and yet things are pretty stable. Also, I think a Korean bubble would be far less severe than in the west as the Korean govt. would pour beaucoup won in to the market to keep it as stable as possible. Will there be a correction? Most assuredly, but utter collapse, I doubt it. In Ulsan, prices continue to rise to the point that he most desirable place now goes for over 25 m/pyg. This despite massive new developments everywhere within the city. Finally, as one poster mentioned, real estate in Korea is a pretty good deal, especially in busan. |
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Unposter
Joined: 04 Jun 2006
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Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:47 am Post subject: |
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I have actually read that housing prices are starting to go up; some people think Korean real estate prices have already hit bottom and are in the process of rebounding. The main reason is that key money or cheonsae has sky rocketed making purchasing a home much more financially reasonably.
What TJ was alluding to is that the 97 economic crisis started in Thailand when they had problems paying back their loans so maybe Thailand is not the best basket to put your eggs.
Korea has done a pretty good job of weathering international financial storms so far so it may be a safer place than you think. |
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Captain Corea

Joined: 28 Feb 2005 Location: Seoul
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Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:00 am Post subject: |
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I' not sure Korean (Seoul) real estate prices have moved at all in the past 5 years. Seem really stagnant to me (but chunsae is growing like its on... steroids)  |
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PatrickGHBusan
Joined: 24 Jun 2008 Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -
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Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:21 am Post subject: |
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The bubble has already partially bursted. The prices for apts are going down in many areas and apt sales are also down in new buildings.
The apt we own in Busan has not gained in value that much in the past few years and it is in a good area. The flip side is that we got it for cheaper when we bought it because prices were already down by a fair margin back then. |
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cabeza
Joined: 29 Sep 2012
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Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:31 am Post subject: |
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I'm not usually a grammar nazi, but you are the second person now to say the bubble "bursted".
It's burst/burst/burst isn't it? I've never seen the past simple or particple as "bursted". Is this some weird Americanism? |
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PatrickGHBusan
Joined: 24 Jun 2008 Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -
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Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 8:44 am Post subject: |
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The bubble has burst, or it popped.
All is well. |
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jvalmer

Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 3:56 pm Post subject: |
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Unposter wrote: |
What TJ was alluding to is that the 97 economic crisis started in Thailand when they had problems paying back their loans so maybe Thailand is not the best basket to put your eggs.
Korea has done a pretty good job of weathering international financial storms so far so it may be a safer place than you think. |
And I believe Korea also has amasses a huge amount in foreign reserves. After their experiences from 1997, they've stocked up, and continue to, ready to defend their economy. |
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KimchiNinja

Joined: 01 May 2012 Location: Gangnam
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Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 5:10 pm Post subject: |
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creeper1 wrote: |
If highly trained economists can't predict the timing of a bubble bursting what makes you think a bunch of TEFLers can?
Spread your risk - shares, real estate, gold, commodities. They won't all go down. |
Yeah that's good advice.
You can't time the market; there are imbalances, but we don't know when they will correct.
That said, there are signs to be seen before the masses catch on (like little tremors before a big earthquake, most people don't notice). I watched subprime from 2002 to 2007 like a hawk, mid to late '07 there were clear signs something was wrong, but most people just weren't paying attention. Takes a lot of time to stay on it though... |
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