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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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 Posted: Sat May 24, 2014 6:21 pm Post subject: Thailand coup |
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/thai-coup-leaders-summon-academics-journalists-1.2653098
There is much talk about Ukraine, but what's happening in Thailand seems to be no less interesting and disturbing.
This latest coup being of major concern. Media shut down, prime minister and other party members detained and now members of media and academics asked to surrender themselves. One has to wonder where this will lead.
On one hand, you don't have another major power meddling in Thai affairs, and this does appear to be elites (and monarchy) vs. the poor type of conflict (not ethnicity battle, as is the case in Ukraine), but on the other hand, you do have a potential for another civil war. |
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Sat May 24, 2014 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Thailand coup |
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| maximmm wrote: |
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/thai-coup-leaders-summon-academics-journalists-1.2653098
There is much talk about Ukraine, but what's happening in Thailand seems to be no less interesting and disturbing.
This latest coup being of major concern. Media shut down, prime minister and other party members detained and now members of media and academics asked to surrender themselves. One has to wonder where this will lead. |
I don't think there's anything especially disturbing about a country taking action to avoid domination by the family of a man who is living in exile to avoid facing up to that country's justice system. Opposition to the elected government has been presented as "anti-democratic" in our media, but if an ultra-rich, well-connected family maintaining control of the government by dispersing political favors to certain demographics is "democracy," then "democracy" is nothing worth supporting. I suppose you could say the lack of stability in general is an issue for the people of Thailand, but they'll work it out for themselves sooner or later.
| maximmm wrote: |
| On one hand, you don't have another major power meddling in Thai affairs, and this does appear to be elites (and monarchy) vs. the poor type of conflict ... |
It's elite vs elite from what I can see. The rural poor happen to be supporters of Thaksin Sinawatra's proxies, but that doesn't make them key players here. It simply means they were the cheapest path to purchasing an electoral majority. |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Sat May 24, 2014 9:13 pm Post subject: Re: Thailand coup |
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| maximmm wrote: |
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/thai-coup-leaders-summon-academics-journalists-1.2653098
This latest coup being of major concern. Media shut down, prime minister and other party members detained and now members of media and academics asked to surrender themselves. One has to wonder where this will lead.
On one hand, you don't have another major power meddling in Thai affairs, and this does appear to be elites (and monarchy) vs. the poor type of conflict (not ethnicity battle, as is the case in Ukraine), but on the other hand, you do have a potential for another civil war. |
No big deal. Thai politics as usual and the military were actually welcomed on the streets - the biggest complaint from most was having schools closed and also having the cartoon network turned off for a day on Friday.
- TV is back on the air (regular programming) with the exception of the US news channels or the BBC.
- Ministers (including my personal friend - Somsak Pureesrisak - sports and tourism minister) who were NOT involved in the dirt and deception were treated well while on the army base and were released about 20 hours after reporting in with the only restrictions on their "liberties" being not allowed to leave the country or export money while things get sorted out.
- There ARE exceptions to the curfew.
If you have a legitimate reason to be out (night shift factory workers, transportation, medical staff, foreigners going to/from airports, etc) then you can be out and/or travel after 10.
- The former Prime Minister should have been arrested weeks ago along with the rest of her family and inner cabinet including her husband (another impeached prime minister).
- The leaders of the insurrection (red and yellow) have to face the original charges (laid by the civilian legal system 6 months ago) of sedition and armed conflict.
This whole thing goes further than red vs yellow (as the CBC would have you believe).
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Sun May 25, 2014 2:07 am Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
It's elite vs elite from what I can see. The rural poor happen to be supporters of Thaksin Sinawatra's proxies, but that doesn't make them key players here. It simply means they were the cheapest path to purchasing an electoral majority. |
Fair enough -
| ttompatz wrote: |
- The former Prime Minister should have been arrested weeks ago along with the rest of her family and inner cabinet including her husband (another impeached prime minister).
- The leaders of the insurrection (red and yellow) have to face the original charges (laid by the civilian legal system 6 months ago) of sedition and armed conflict.
This whole thing goes further than red vs yellow (as the CBC would have you believe).
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I suppose if they arrest both the red and yellow leaders, it would only be fair as I see corruption on both fronts.
The problem is, civil war is still on the table and now people protest this coup.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/411686/anti-coup-protests-grow-in-bangkok-despite-ban
I think a coup can be good for a country when it is supported by the vast majority of the country (90% or so). I do not think this is the case here. When a coup is not supported by the majority, it can actually lead to a lot more chaos than stability (as highlighted in Ukraine AND the original coup that got Thaksin running).
The problem with democracy is that it requires 49% of the people to be ruled by 51% (in most cases, the ratio somewhat different). When the minority is unwilling to accept that, the odds of a civil war always grow by a great margin.
Alas, considering that there have been nearly 20 coups (20 attempted, 12 successful) in the last 80 years in Thailand, I could well be over-analyzing things.
Here is more on Thai coups - http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/12/03/thailand-has-had-more-coups-than-any-other-country-this-is-why/
I have to wonder just how many of those coups were ordered by the 'figurehead' monarchy. I suspect quite a few, which would turn monarchy into a much bigger player in all of this chaos than either of the two political parties. |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Sun May 25, 2014 3:27 am Post subject: |
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| maximmm wrote: |
I suppose if they arrest both the red and yellow leaders, it would only be fair as I see corruption on both fronts.
The problem is, civil war is still on the table and now people protest this coup.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/411686/anti-coup-protests-grow-in-bangkok-despite-ban
I think a coup can be good for a country when it is supported by the vast majority of the country (90% or so). I do not think this is the case here. When a coup is not supported by the majority, it can actually lead to a lot more chaos than stability (as highlighted in Ukraine AND the original coup that got Thaksin running).
The problem with democracy is that it requires 49% of the people to be ruled by 51% (in most cases, the ratio somewhat different). When the minority is unwilling to accept that, the odds of a civil war always grow by a great margin.
Alas, considering that there have been nearly 20 coups (20 attempted, 12 successful) in the last 80 years in Thailand, I could well be over-analyzing things.
Here is more on Thai coups - http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/12/03/thailand-has-had-more-coups-than-any-other-country-this-is-why/
I have to wonder just how many of those coups were ordered by the 'figurehead' monarchy. I suspect quite a few, which would turn monarchy into a much bigger player in all of this chaos than either of the two political parties. |
Civil war... not likely.... the lead players for that game are either out of the country and on the run (Thaksin) or incommunicado (the rest of his family who are still here) on the Army base at Ayutthaya.
Mass protests... hardly. Inconvenience at best.
A couple hundred (maybe up to 1000 in a city of 8+ million) hot heads sent packing after a brief confrontation with PRO-coup supporters and the military.
But.. I must admit... the foreign news services, sitting in their offices in Singapore and Hong Kong would certainly have a different view than I would sitting here at Starbucks in Central World and watching it all unfold below.
I do know that the vast majority of families at my schools and in the towns we are located in were more than a little relieved that the army finally stepped in, sent the Thaksin crew packing and began the process of restoring some kind of sanity to the country (compared to the anarchy that has existed here for the last 6 months or so).
http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/2014/05/25/55CF9FC6C7EF45408B86D7F6D820BB63.jpg
http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/2014/05/25/53841C870AC14DB0BD1935B723957C78.jpg
It is of note that your Washington post article was dated some 6 months ago.
I might change my mind (about the likelihood of civil war) if Thaksin manages to bring his private army to bear but he would be a shitty dictator anyway. Better for everyone if he stays away.
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Sun May 25, 2014 7:30 am Post subject: Re: Thailand coup |
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| Fox wrote: |
| I don't think there's anything especially disturbing about a country taking action to avoid domination by the family of a man |
Poppycock conspiracy theory paranoia.
The real problem is the red shirt vs yellow shirt rivalry that has held the country to ransom for many years now. maybe its just the way Thais are.
| Quote: |
| Opposition to the elected government has been presented as "anti-democratic" in our media, but if an ultra-rich, well-connected family maintaining control of the government by dispersing political favors to certain demographics is "democracy," |
You could make similarly meaningless blandishments about every country.
'oh the conservatives are only in power because they maintain the elite ' etc etc. Even western countries are often governed by family dynasties. Bushes? Clintons?
Yingluck was freely elected by a majority of the people and she was not a bad leader.
Fact is at the end of the day democracy is the best system we have and when you take it for granted and throw it out the window you will be in trouble. |
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Sun May 25, 2014 8:24 am Post subject: |
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We should try not to forget that Thailand is not really a democratic nation.
It has what is called a 'figurehead' monarch, but that title is a gimmick.
Once again, I suspect that many of the recent coups in Thailand were ordered by the monarchy. So what was the difference between the last coup and this one? Thaksin was corrupt, but most importantly, he's made some comments that were widely seen as being critical of the monarchy. The thing about monarchy though is that it is supported by all Thai - poor and rich alike. One of the main reasons for that is the fact that the idolization and worship of monarchy is taught in Thailand from an early age (much like the anti-Japanese sentiment is taught from an early age in SK). When I worked in Thai high school, I had to help students prepare for speech/essay contests where the main topic was 'the reasons why our king is great'.
There was no great uprising when Thaksin was exiled mainly because even his supporters saw that he had 'deserved' his punishment via his criticism of the monarchy.
The current PM has done no such thing, so this coup could have a much greater opposition than last time around.
A funny thing about Thai laws -
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Red shirt case -
April 2009. Daranee "Da Torpedo" Chanchoengsilpakul was sentenced to 18 years in prison without suspension for "intending to insult" Bhumibol and Sirikit at a political protest.[61] She did not actually mention the monarchs in her speech (she criticized, among other things, the "ruling class"), however, the court ruled that the prosecution "brought evidence that makes it possible to interpret that the defendant meant the King and Queen Sirikit."
Yellow shirt case -
Sondhi Limthongkul (the leader of the yellow shirts) quoted Daranee "Da Torpedo" Chanchoengsilpakul and for that he was sentenced to two years imprisonment for defaming the monarchy, then released after posting 500,000 baht ($15,935) in bail.
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So yeah - everything that I know tells me that Thailand has been run by a dictatorship for many decades now, where democracy is just an illusion created for the masses and an international appeal. Thai military - they are simply doing the job assigned by the true rulers/meddlers. |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Sun May 25, 2014 2:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
You could make similarly meaningless blandishments about every country.
'oh the conservatives are only in power because they maintain the elite ' etc etc. Even western countries are often governed by family dynasties. Bushes? Clintons? |
I agree one could say similar things about a number of other countries. I disagree that such concerns are meaningless, and suggesting they are meaningless does not leave me disposed towards taking you seriously.
| Chaparrastique wrote: |
Yingluck was freely elected by a majority of the people and she was not a bad leader.
Fact is at the end of the day democracy is the best system we have and when you take it for granted and throw it out the window you will be in trouble. |
I'm confused: what on Earth makes you think I care about your opinion on matters such as the quality of any given political leader or the desirability of any given political system? |
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Titus
Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Posted: Sun May 25, 2014 5:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Fact is at the end of the day democracy is the best system we have |
Then how come everything goes to shit under democracy? Would you pluck a random "voter" from the pool and have them balance your checkbook? Neither would I. Most people are idiots. Democracy is rule by idiots.
I have nothing to say about Thailand. ^ My contribution. |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Sun May 25, 2014 10:44 pm Post subject: |
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And if they had free general elections again, a Thaksin backed party would probably win yet again.
I once read an interesting article about Thai politics. And the following excerpts really made me understand why the military keeps on stepping in on a popularly elected government.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-130114.html
Control of the modern Thai state has been through a gentlemanly alternation of elites, the composition of which has gradually changed since the end of absolute royal rule in the early 1930s. In keeping with the Middle Way, political figures have been moderately corrupt but with sensitivity to the transience of life (again a Buddhist notion) and thus the need eventually to move on with what one has accumulated (or even to give it up - which has happened historically).
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No one until recently attempted to dominate either the state or the economy. Sometimes the politically powerful required a nudge (public demonstrations, tanks in the streets, a whisper from the king), but Thai politics continued its circulation of elites so everyone had a chance for a piece of the pie.
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Some see Thaksin's unwillingness to compromise, unwillingness to move on and "winner takes all" obsessions in both politics and the economy as growing out of his unhappy treatment as a youth in a family of Chinese origin in Northern Thailand. Whatever the source, Thaksin's motivations and resulting actions led to his rejection by powerful elements of Thai society, uneasy with unprecedented corruption and with his tense relationship with the present monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej.
Thaksin could have had a pretty nice arrangement to exit politics in a dignified matter, and his businesses would have still benefited massively from an 'arrangement'. Maybe, if he wanted, he probably could have had a pretty powerful cabinet position too. Compromising would have been much better choice, for the country, rather than this cycle of elections and coups. But I guess power made him a bit too greedy, and the Thai elites don't like that. |
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Chaparrastique
Joined: 01 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2014 8:33 am Post subject: |
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| Titus wrote: |
| Then how come everything goes to shit under democracy? |
Democracies have long been the most advanced countries with the highest standards of living. People may be mostly idiots but they still know how to choose a leader that best protects their interests. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2014 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| Chaparrastique wrote: |
| Titus wrote: |
| Then how come everything goes to shit under democracy? |
Democracies have long been the most advanced countries with the highest standards of living. People may be mostly idiots but they still know how to choose a leader that best protects their interests. |
Titus told me to tell everyone that he is a fascist. Furthermore, he doesn't care about countries becoming "advanced" or achieving the "highest [material] standards of living." I would have to agree with him that these are not the first aims of a society, and that any lasting argument for democracy should go further. As for your second point, I think that's extremely debatable.
Aristotle has yet to be definitively proven wrong; namely, that democracy is the most middling and mediocre of all the forms of government, least likely to achieve much and least likely to disappoint the most. Monarchy/tyranny has the highest risk and the highest reward. Oligarchy/plutocracy can achieve a great deal but carries more risk than democracy.
So why argue for democracy? Because democracy is inevitable. So too is oligarchy, so too is monarchy. There are only really three forms of government and every system has to incorporate each of the three forms to last longer than a few generations. Indeed, it is actually very mistaken to call the United States simply a democracy when the President has god-like power over (inter)national security and an unelected but appointed cadre of nine lawyers with life tenure decide whether the legislature's law will be permitted or not.
Arguing for monarchy or democracy or oligarchy kind of misses the point. Its like debating whether God is one or many. Most Hindus would tell you he is both, and that's not the most interesting thing about God. |
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The Cosmic Hum
Joined: 09 May 2003
Location: Sonic Space
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2014 6:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Arguing for monarchy or democracy or oligarchy kind of misses the point. Its like debating whether God is one or many. Most Hindus would tell you he is both, and that's not the most interesting thing about God. |
Ok...I'll ask.
What is the most interesting thing about God? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon May 26, 2014 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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| The Cosmic Hum wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| Arguing for monarchy or democracy or oligarchy kind of misses the point. Its like debating whether God is one or many. Most Hindus would tell you he is both, and that's not the most interesting thing about God. |
Ok...I'll ask.
What is the most interesting thing about God? |
No. I won't let you derail this thread. The point is that whether God is one or many does not approach what is significant about what God is or what he would mean to mankind. Likewise, the democracy v oligarchy v monarchy debate is a false one.
You're an avid atheist. Does it matter to you whether someone believes in the Greek pantheon or a Christian God? No, you demand whatever it is you demand. Likewise, the democracy v oligarchy v monarchy debate is a false one. |
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