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cmxc
Joined: 19 May 2008
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 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:49 pm Post subject: All 476 Sewol passengers could have escaped in 5 minutes |
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| All 476 passengers onboard the Sewol ferry could have escaped in a matter of five minutes had its crew members told them to leave the ship in time, according to the results of a rescue simulation disclosed during trial yesterday. |
The Sewol will go down in history as one of the most shameful chapters in the history of modern Korea. There is more than ample blame to be distributed throughout Korea's institutions.
The bottom line is that until Korea places the same value on life as they do on making a fast buck, it's only a matter of time before the next Sewol type tragedy occurs.
Simulations show far different fate for the Sewol
http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2995313&cloc=joongangdaily|home|newslist1 |
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guavashake
Joined: 09 Nov 2013
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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Good article.
This is what I have said all along.
Besides being told to not move, the actions and inactions of the Coast Guard added to the disaster.
If you do the math, and see the results, it isn't possible to do a rescue the way the Coast Guard and Navy tried to do.
Everyone has to abandon ship, and then get pulled out of the water, not picked off the ship one by one. It would take days to do it that way.
And, the people that they took from outside the ship were already home safe. The people that needed rescuing were inside the ship.
There are photos of people trying to break windows so they can get out, while nearby the Coast Guard ignores them and helped people who are outside and already safe.
The Coast Guard also ordered fishermen who were breaking windows and getting people out, to stop doing it, and go home.
In the time it could take to go to a theater, buy a ticket and some popcorn, and watch a movie, hundreds of people needlessly died that could have surely all been saved. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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To me, this was a systemic failure at all levels.
The government for deregulation
The administrators for lax inspections.
The crew for criminally negligent behavior.
The coast guard for focusing more on hierarchy and CYA than rescue.
The police for failure to quickly apprehend the ferry owners.
The politicians for trying to score points off of it.
The media for reporting rumors instead of fact checking.
Hell, I'm running out of people to blame. Am I missing someone?  |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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Those evacuation times seem awfully optimistic to me. The five minutes right at the start is plausible, but given that the priority at that time would have been stabilization vs. evacuation, that's a bit of a strawman.
The other times given have this qualifier:
| Quote: |
| the professor said all three outcomes were made assuming there was no delay in evacuation procedures due to injuries sustained by passengers or disturbances in line from pushing or panic. |
This seems to imply that 450 people walking along narrow halls at a 60 degree tilt, on a bobbing ship would be able to move at a steady pace and not suffer any mishaps. I know my thoughts here are not going to be popular and come off as "you're just making excuses" but I think people who think soberly about such things realize that those timetables are rather optimistic.
Also, I question this:
| Quote: |
the Sewol ferry was tilting to its left side...
The second scenario found that, had the passengers been told to evacuate at 9:24 a.m., when the captain of another civilian ferry nearby the sinking ship advised the Sewol crew to order an evacuation, all the passengers could have once again jumped off the ferry’s third-floor deck on the ship’s left side in nine minutes and 28 seconds. |
Uhm, Sending 450 people on 60 degree decline on a listing ship and adding that weight to the listing side of a top heavy vessel and asking rescue vessels to position themselves UNDERNEATH the listing side is uhm, potentially risky, I think.
And again, we have to remember that you can't always instantly abandon ship everytime something goes wrong and that the next time the safest course of action might be to stay on the ship and the course of action that kills hundreds of people is everyone immediately flinging themselves overboard into frigid or stormy waters. In the real world you often have two poor choices with unclear results based and only limited information to arrive at a decision. The decision about what place is safest is up to the people on the scene and is not always clear. It's not what decision you make, it's that once you make that decision, do you properly follow procedures when you do so.
The big damning evidence is what we've known, and I've said, all along- The failure of the captain and crew to assist in any way with the evacuation and to abandon ship first. For that, they should be hauled in front of a tribunal. Death penalty for gross negligence is wrong, but it would be nice in this case.
Anyways, I know a bunch of people are about to be like "You love the captain!!!! Do you send each other valentines?!?!" Can you at least try some reading comprehension and get what I'm saying. Can you please debate whether the evacuation times seem feasible and whether asking evacuating passengers to go to the listing side of a ship and asking rescue vessels to place themselves under the list is the best course of action rather than "So Steelrails thinks he's Admiral Nelson!!!!" |
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le-paul
Joined: 07 Apr 2009
Location: dans la chambre
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
Those evacuation times seem awfully optimistic to me. The five minutes right at the start is plausible, but given that the priority at that time would have been stabilization vs. evacuation, that's a bit of a strawman.
The other times given have this qualifier:
| Quote: |
| the professor said all three outcomes were made assuming there was no delay in evacuation procedures due to injuries sustained by passengers or disturbances in line from pushing or panic. |
This seems to imply that 450 people walking along narrow halls at a 60 degree tilt, on a bobbing ship would be able to move at a steady pace and not suffer any mishaps. I know my thoughts here are not going to be popular and come off as "you're just making excuses" but I think people who think soberly about such things realize that those timetables are rather optimistic.
Also, I question this:
| Quote: |
the Sewol ferry was tilting to its left side...
The second scenario found that, had the passengers been told to evacuate at 9:24 a.m., when the captain of another civilian ferry nearby the sinking ship advised the Sewol crew to order an evacuation, all the passengers could have once again jumped off the ferry’s third-floor deck on the ship’s left side in nine minutes and 28 seconds. |
Uhm, Sending 450 people on 60 degree decline on a listing ship and adding that weight to the listing side of a top heavy vessel and asking rescue vessels to position themselves UNDERNEATH the listing side is uhm, potentially risky, I think.
And again, we have to remember that you can't always instantly abandon ship everytime something goes wrong and that the next time the safest course of action might be to stay on the ship and the course of action that kills hundreds of people is everyone immediately flinging themselves overboard into frigid or stormy waters. In the real world you often have two poor choices with unclear results based and only limited information to arrive at a decision. The decision about what place is safest is up to the people on the scene and is not always clear. It's not what decision you make, it's that once you make that decision, do you properly follow procedures when you do so.
The big damning evidence is what we've known, and I've said, all along- The failure of the captain and crew to assist in any way with the evacuation and to abandon ship first. For that, they should be hauled in front of a tribunal. Death penalty for gross negligence is wrong, but it would be nice in this case.
Anyways, I know a bunch of people are about to be like "You love the captain!!!! Do you send each other valentines?!?!" Can you at least try some reading comprehension and get what I'm saying. Can you please debate whether the evacuation times seem feasible and whether asking evacuating passengers to go to the listing side of a ship and asking rescue vessels to place themselves under the list is the best course of action rather than "So Steelrails thinks he's Admiral Nelson!!!!" |
Im on my way out the door, Ill let someone else do it... |
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Savant
Joined: 25 May 2007
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| le-paul wrote: |
| Im on my way out the door, Ill let someone else do it... |
Is that a quote from the Sewol Ferry Captain? |
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mayorgc
Joined: 19 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:30 pm Post subject: |
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| SR is the ferry captain! it all makes sense now |
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le-paul
Joined: 07 Apr 2009
Location: dans la chambre
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Savant wrote: |
| le-paul wrote: |
| Im on my way out the door, Ill let someone else do it... |
Is that a quote from the Sewol Ferry Captain? |
haha - well played
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Cave Dweller
Joined: 17 Aug 2014
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:03 pm Post subject: |
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You get an F on your essay because you neither blamed foreigners or the Japanese. For shame, for shame.
Also further blame to Korea for refusing help from Japan.
quote="Captain Corea"]To me, this was a systemic failure at all levels.
The government for deregulation
The administrators for lax inspections.
The crew for criminally negligent behavior.
The coast guard for focusing more on hierarchy and CYA than rescue.
The police for failure to quickly apprehend the ferry owners.
The politicians for trying to score points off of it.
The media for reporting rumors instead of fact checking.
Hell, I'm running out of people to blame. Am I missing someone? [/quote] |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:13 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, let's debate the evacuation times.
Why listen to the expert?
Why consider the three computer simulations he offered as evidence?
WTF are you still trying to exonerate the captain and crew? Just to try and win an argument you lost long ago? |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:18 am Post subject: |
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| atwood wrote: |
Yes, let's debate the evacuation times.
Why listen to the expert?
Why consider the three computer simulations he offered as evidence?
WTF are you still trying to exonerate the captain and crew? Just to try and win an argument you lost long ago? |
You don't see those estimated times and at least find them on the optimistic side? So if an "expert" from the Korean government says that Suwon is only 30 minutes away from Mapo-gu by car, you'd accept that without question?
"Experts" claim that N. Korea can turn Seoul into a sea of fire and have 30,000 artillery pieces pointed at the city. However, anyone who knows anything knows that that claim by the "experts" is a crock of crap.
Anyways, talk about why you think that figure seems reasonable or unreasonable. The passengers weren't only children, but included people like the elderly. You seriously expect them to walk down a 60 degree decline on a bobbing ship and there not be a serious risk of injury?
Go ahead, insult me rather than the evidence. If your case is so strong, you should be throwing the evidence in my face rather than insults. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:32 am Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
Yes, let's debate the evacuation times.
Why listen to the expert?
Why consider the three computer simulations he offered as evidence?
WTF are you still trying to exonerate the captain and crew? Just to try and win an argument you lost long ago? |
You don't see those estimated times and at least find them on the optimistic side? So if an "expert" from the Korean government says that Suwon is only 30 minutes away from Mapo-gu by car, you'd accept that without question?
"Experts" claim that N. Korea can turn Seoul into a sea of fire and have 30,000 artillery pieces pointed at the city. However, anyone who knows anything knows that that claim by the "experts" is a crock of crap.
Anyways, talk about why you think that figure seems reasonable or unreasonable. The passengers weren't only children, but included people like the elderly. You seriously expect them to walk down a 60 degree decline on a bobbing ship and there not be a serious risk of injury?
Go ahead, insult me rather than the evidence. If your case is so strong, you should be throwing the evidence in my face rather than insults. |
The expert gave the evidence. Have you seen it? Do you have any reason to disagree with it besides it contradicting your myriad of posts on this topic?
No you haven't and no you don't. Thus there is nothing to debate.
Which leaves insulting you. I'm cool with that.  |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:07 am Post subject: |
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| atwood wrote: |
The expert gave the evidence. Have you seen it? Do you have any reason to disagree with it besides it contradicting your myriad of posts on this topic?
No you haven't and no you don't. Thus there is nothing to debate.
Which leaves insulting you. I'm cool with that. |
For starters there was this: "the professor said all three outcomes were made assuming there was no delay in evacuation procedures due to injuries sustained by passengers or disturbances in line from pushing or panic."
Care to respond to this? I'd assume that someone who is so eager to take Koreans to task for certain behaviors might see something in this sentence which would suggest that the 5 minute timetable was overly optimistic. A quick google check says that the maximum angle for disabled people in wheelchairs is about 8-9%. Bicyclists can't handle more than 40%. You're talking close to a 60% and increasing slope in crowded conditions and heading to an evac point which will have a bottleneck. This makes his figure sound awfully optimistic. And do you think its wise to have rescue boats on the listing side as a ship is capsizing? You do know ships can rapidly roll over right? And those boats don't exactly turn on a dime.
But I'm happy you trust Korean experts. I'm sure you'll trust them in every and all cases and wholeheartedly agree with every one of their findings. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:51 am Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
The expert gave the evidence. Have you seen it? Do you have any reason to disagree with it besides it contradicting your myriad of posts on this topic?
No you haven't and no you don't. Thus there is nothing to debate.
Which leaves insulting you. I'm cool with that. |
For starters there was this: "the professor said all three outcomes were made assuming there was no delay in evacuation procedures due to injuries sustained by passengers or disturbances in line from pushing or panic."
Care to respond to this? I'd assume that someone who is so eager to take Koreans to task for certain behaviors might see something in this sentence which would suggest that the 5 minute timetable was overly optimistic. A quick google check says that the maximum angle for disabled people in wheelchairs is about 8-9%. Bicyclists can't handle more than 40%. You're talking close to a 60% and increasing slope in crowded conditions and heading to an evac point which will have a bottleneck. This makes his figure sound awfully optimistic. And do you think its wise to have rescue boats on the listing side as a ship is capsizing? You do know ships can rapidly roll over right? And those boats don't exactly turn on a dime.
But I'm happy you trust Korean experts. I'm sure you'll trust them in every and all cases and wholeheartedly agree with every one of their findings. |
Maritime experts agreed that evacuation procedures should have begun as soon as the ferry began to experience problems. That's long been in evidence.
Your questions lead me to believe you didn't read the entire article or didn't understand what he said.
To accept the testimony of one expert does not mean one accepts the testimony of all experts. Considering the case and the microscope it is under, the credibility of this expert is hard to question without some evidence. Do you have any?
You were wrong about this, you are wrong about this, and you will be wrong about this.
Stick to posts about who should and shouldn't drink milk and what kind of athletic socks you prefer to wear. They're just personal opinions and opinions are like... |
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Mikejelai
Joined: 01 Nov 2009
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:31 am Post subject: |
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| Understand our situation - we must defer to our seniors.... |
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