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Zackback
Joined: 05 Nov 2010
Location: Kyungbuk
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 Posted: Thu May 28, 2015 6:26 pm Post subject: Planet Earth without the USA: A geo-political free for all? |
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I sometimes think what would happen to different areas of the world if the USA suddenly ceased to be.
Taiwan: Would (mainland) China immediately roll in?
South Korea: Would North Korea immediately (try) to roll in?
The Spratly Islands: Would countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. immediately form a military alliance to counter China?
Russia: What country or countries would they annex next?
Iran (as well as others); How soon would an attack come upon Israel (as well as others)?
I'm sure there are other places... |
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Underwaterbob
Joined: 08 Jan 2005
Location: In Cognito
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2015 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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| There'd be a big gap between Canada and Mexico. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2015 7:23 pm Post subject: Re: Planet Earth without the USA: A geo-political free for a |
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| Zackback wrote: |
I sometimes think what would happen to different areas of the world if the USA suddenly ceased to be.
Taiwan: Would (mainland) China immediately roll in?
South Korea: Would North Korea immediately (try) to roll in?
The Spratly Islands: Would countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. immediately form a military alliance to counter China?
Russia: What country or countries would they annex next?
Iran (as well as others); How soon would an attack come upon Israel (as well as others)?
I'm sure there are other places... |
If the US suddenly ceased to be, most of those countries would spend the next 2-10 years in serious economic reform and dealing with domestic issues and unrest as there would be widespread economic upheaval, food shortages (the US feeds a good chunk of the world), fluctuating energy prices, and mass migration to the now suddenly empty resource-rich land of the former U.S. So many economies of the world are tied to the US, that its sudden disappearance would be a disaster.
China would be looking at nationwide strikes and riots as millions would find themselves unemployed. Taiwan would be the least of their worries.
North Korea would carry on as usual. The gap in military capability is already such that war between the two countries would be about as winnable as the CSA vs. the Union in the Civil War. Don't quote me on this, but the value of all the products manufactured and produced in North Korea is probably equal to Ulsan and Pohang combined, maybe just one of them. South Korea would rapidly nuclearize.
Spratly Islands are something for rich, stable countries to fight over to assert their dominance without risking much. A diversion. With the upheaval caused by the USA's vanishing act, more pressing matters would present themselves for all parties concerned.
Russia wouldn't invade anyone beyond Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltics. And even then it might not. Russia is now in prime position and has no need to get bogged down in occupations and insurgencies in 3 separate places when it can just have Belarus style friendly autocrats come to power in those places. Europe would try to rapidly re militarize and boost their nuclear arsenals. However they'd also have to deal with a bad economy and public reaction to deep cuts in social welfare programs.
Iran wouldn't attack Israel beyond a few Hezbollah rockets lobbed at it. Israel has 200+ nuclear weapons. Iran isn't going to any kind of real, serious war. They'd probably be too busy dealing with the Gulf States and some sort of Kurdish uprising. Israel might go to war with Iran, not the other way around.
Not that much sexy stuff would happen, sad to say. |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2015 11:26 pm Post subject: |
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How would they US disappear? Do all 320 million vanish? Or will they go somewhere? Will the physical geography just become ocean? Would their military forces overseas be just abandoned, and the soldiers and equipment up for grabs for anyone?
I need more details, because US scientists, and great thinkers, would be a boon for the receiving country. |
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young_clinton
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
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| Posted: Sat May 30, 2015 7:21 am Post subject: |
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| Underwaterbob wrote: |
| There'd be a big gap between Canada and Mexico. |
That would mean the Mexicans would have to cross the no mans land to get into Canada for better work. Actually Mexico could probably just kick Canada's ass and just take whatever it wanted. |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Sat May 30, 2015 8:29 am Post subject: |
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| young_clinton wrote: |
| Underwaterbob wrote: |
| There'd be a big gap between Canada and Mexico. |
That would mean the Mexicans would have to cross the no mans land to get into Canada for better work. Actually Mexico could probably just kick Canada's ass and just take whatever it wanted. |
Winters would drive them south of the Mason-Dixie Line.
"Winter is coming." |
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nicwr2002
Joined: 17 Aug 2011
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| Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 11:12 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| young_clinton wrote: |
| Underwaterbob wrote: |
| There'd be a big gap between Canada and Mexico. |
That would mean the Mexicans would have to cross the no mans land to get into Canada for better work. Actually Mexico could probably just kick Canada's ass and just take whatever it wanted. |
Winters would drive them south of the Mason-Dixie Line.
"Winter is coming." |
The US is building a wall in the wrong area... |
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AsiaESLbound
Joined: 07 Jan 2010
Location: Truck Stop Missouri
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| Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:03 am Post subject: |
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While this is a hypothetical question, it could be a very important relevant topic in terms of US dominant world power and status should the US dollar suddenly lose value in the markets from a default on national debt and insolvency. This in turn would create about 7 years of terrible bad luck for most of the world as their currencies are dependent on the US dollar until corrections were made in re-establishing new currencies or a new gold standard for each one. A new currency crisis of a global magnitude is very possible in the not so far off future. Why? The bankster Republican lobbyists ran up US debt to impossible levels of serviceability and just like in World War 2 Europe, they (the rich banker investors like Rothchild) will ultimately crash it as to make it all cheap again as to realize ground level opportunities, never mind the millions of people they will kill in the process of such a downfall. While it's not the 19th century, the only thing that has changed is technology and physical styling like camo flak vests vs. shiny suits of articulated armor. Wash, rinse, and repeat.
A world without America would be far different, but someone in the big money with the big guns would be the super daddy with the button inside of a mountain. |
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sirius black
Joined: 04 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:02 pm Post subject: |
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We over-estimate our own importance. The world would adjust and probably China will emerge as the most important geopolitically and economically.
The world would adjust faster than we think. Its easier these days from a hundred years ago. |
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Underwaterbob
Joined: 08 Jan 2005
Location: In Cognito
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 3:48 pm Post subject: |
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| The Internet would certainly suck. |
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2015 8:31 am Post subject: |
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First and foremost, World Traveler would no longer be able to refer to the US as the wealthiest and most powerful country in the history of the entire universe, or at least not using the present tense.
Other things...hmm
Without the US to keep all us foreign savages in check, we'll all be invading and attacking each other as our barbarous nature reasserts itself. All our governments will collapse and we'll sink back into chaos.
Or rather, there might be an initial shock as a result of such a sudden change. People and societies then adapt, and life continues.  |
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maximmm
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2015 4:59 pm Post subject: Re: Planet Earth without the USA: A geo-political free for a |
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| Zackback wrote: |
I sometimes think what would happen to different areas of the world if the USA suddenly ceased to be.
Taiwan: Would (mainland) China immediately roll in?
South Korea: Would North Korea immediately (try) to roll in?
The Spratly Islands: Would countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc. immediately form a military alliance to counter China?
Russia: What country or countries would they annex next?
Iran (as well as others); How soon would an attack come upon Israel (as well as others)?
I'm sure there are other places... |
Haha - funny, though somewhat immature.
If USA were to seize to exist, most countries would immediately ally themselves to the next superpower. I'm thinking China, which in some ways would be akin to allying to Russia (since China and Russia are already allies).
All of the next 'liberating' wars would be conducted by the next superpower.
In the end, not much would have changed.
Allying with Russia is also not a bad bet, given that it has the biggest nuclear arsenal. So, Russia's allies would get a pretty legit protection from China, if they formed something similar to NATO with Russia at the helm.
Then again, we could also see a major war between Russia and China and their new allies to determine who would become the most dominant nation.
For reference, look at what happened when other empires fell in the past.
As for your little and immature analysis - Taiwan is not being protected by the USA. Though if there was a move either by the US or Taiwan to join NATO, I do think we'd be looking at annexation of Taiwan by China. USA would complain but do nothing.
Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia? They might just remain as they are, friend to all and enemies to none. If they were under a threat, I'd think they'd start looking for a big ally with some legit military/nukes.
South Korea? It would most likely immediately ally itself with both, China and Russia. In fact, the odds of the two Koreas reuniting without USA's presence would skyrocket.
Israel? Well - that's a tough one. Without USA's protection, I think we'd be looking at a pretty big conflict there. Israel has nukes - so we might be looking at a sea of red fire in that region, but eventually, I suspect that Israel would crumble, if only economically.
Russia? With NATO gone, I suspect that neighboring countries would actually seek to better their relations with Russia. Essentially, countries might even seek to fall UNDER its sphere of influence, if only for military protection purposes. I realize how insane this might seem, but with the US propaganda machine gone, the bad, evil Russia image would slowly rot away - unless China and Russia start a conflict - then look for more propaganda from both circles. |
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