Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Plain Meaning]

A Rising China and a Still Dominant U.S. May Face Future Conflict

[Fox]

The first and most immediate thing that struck me about their project here is that of the 16 cases they considered, the overwhelming majority of the nations involved were European. It's virtually the historical equivalent of those psychology professors who hang out on college campuses running experiments using "WEIRD" university students, then declaring broad, sweeping conclusions based upon their findings. China shows up on the list precisely once, and the target of its warfare that one time is Japan, not a remote power. Japan shows up on the list three times, but one of those three times involves engagement with China (which again isn't necessarily comparable to interaction with a remote power), and one of the other times is a "no war" outcome. The pattern (and regularity of appearance) of Asian countries on this list does not resemble that of the European countries. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, of the four "no war" outcomes, three of them are the final three points up for consideration from a temporal perspective, which implies modern conditions could very well have shifted sufficiently render consideration of how France interacted with the Hapsburgs in the 16th century less than relevant.

Looking at this list of case studies, the last thing I'm left feeling is, "Oh no, 'war between the United States and China in the decades ahead is not just possible, but much more likely than recognized at the moment!'" Proxy squabbles and the like maybe, but not war.

[Fallacy]

I agree with Fox. Besides, China and the USA share too much synergy to fall into actual conflict any time soon. Staged or postured conflicts aside, these two nations are collaborators much more than rivals, so in the near term there is much greater potential for both to engage in conflicts with other nations than with one another. As quoted in the Atlantic article, Xi Jinping himself said as much during a visit to Seattle on Tuesday. I agree with Xi. This is not to dismiss the points raised by Thucydides: a sense of entitlement, self-importance, and a demanding attitude are not helpful traits; nor is fostering fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo useful either. All of that can certainly lead to conflict, but is not a necessary conclusion to be drawn a priori from the premises of Thucydides. Must China's pursuit of political hegemony and maritime ascendancy pose an existential threat to the independence of neighbours and ultimately the existence of the USA? Not necessarily.

[GENO123]

I pityifu believe any official number by China's government then i have a bridge to sell you.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jnylander/2015/09/23/swedens-top-economist-puts-chinas-gdp-growth-at-3-others-are-less-optimistic/

[Plain Meaning]

A lot of skepticism towards the article.

I just don't know. I do think the project is a worthwhile endeavor, because I do fear that America's leaders are both imprudent and warlike. A war with China seems less likely than portrayed in the article; but that's the point as in 1902 very few would have wagered that England and Germany would go to war.

[Leon]

Allison, the author of this piece, has been milking this idea for years now. He is not an expert on China, or even Asia for that matter. I'm not even convinced he did that great of a job of reading Thucydides from his selective reading of the work. However, I will say that his idea is given a lot of weight by policy makers, and his Thucydide's trap formulation has become short hand for people working on China for why it is a threat.

[Plain Meaning]

[GENO123]

China is not going to challenge the US

[Plain Meaning]

Most China Hands acknowledge that China's data remains questionable. I understand that Graham Allison takes them at face value. He should not.

Nonetheless, China is not Japan. For one, it has ten times as many people. This is why Graham Allison's statistics will inevitably become correct over the next 10 to 15 years; China adds several million farmers to its eastern economy every year. China has launched an initiative to turn Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, into a massive 100 million person megalopolis. This will mean Greater Beijing will be as populous as Japan itself within 15 to 20 years.

There are other reasons not to compare China to Japan; Tokyo is a center of culture and arts. Beijing, Shanghai, even Hong Kong are unlikely to rival it in this regard. China is an industrial giant, but its cultural pull and development are weak. The Party refuses to recognize the wisdom of its 'feudal' ancestors and intellectual scions, and even its Confucius Institutes abroad are plagued with politicization and mistrust. The West will certainly not become Chinese, but at this rate, its unlikely that even Vietnam or Indonesia would accept or adopt further Chinese influence (Korea will probably fall right back into its historical pattern of China adulation, though).

It is very easy to succumb to China Hype. Let's not, and let us be honest about China's power. It is rising and it is here to stay. But Chinese will not challenge English as the international language, and China's RMB will not supplant the US dollar.

As for Graham Allison, his theory may have greater problems.

The Real Thucydides’ Trap

[Chaparrastique]