|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
|
 Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:02 am Post subject: |
 |
|
| bucheon bum wrote: |
| You're not factoring in politics. China still has a authoritarian government. Has there ever been a modern, "rich" authoritarian country? . |
I'll take Singapore for $1000 Alex.
 |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Plain Meaning
Joined: 18 Oct 2014
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:36 am Post subject: |
|
|
| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Plain Meaning wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
| Are they though? Sure, a few LBHs here and there, but overall it's Chinese flocking to America. |
That's right. Americans won't pay great deals of money for visa services. And country immigration limits are not keeping Americans from coming to China.
This question of whether China will surpass the U.S.; yes, its inevitable, guys. China's population is ten times that of Japan's and four times that of the U.S.; a lot can happen, and yet one thing that is almost certain is that in 2050 China will have hundreds of millions more people than the U.S. I know China's demography is stagnating, but this is a good thing for China! China's environmental and public infrastructure could not be more stressed, and having more rural workers on state-owned plots will not meaningfully help China's economy, its those in modern cities that matter for economic purposes.
None of this is any reason to buy into any China hype. I think we will see some level of stagnation in China's economy, all the Asian countries begin to slow at about this stage of development, but it won't be quite like Japan's. The big story for China is the waidiren moving from the traditionally communist state-owned plots to urban cities. China's transition from medieval agrarianism through 20th century communism to the modern economy continues. There are about a billion people who have to go through this process, so it won't stop all at once. Japan hit a ceiling, and China is nowhere near that ceiling. |
You're not factoring in politics. China still has a authoritarian government. Has there ever been a modern, "rich" authoritarian country? China is the closest to that, and it still has a long way to match the average incomes of the other top economies of the world. I'm skeptical the Communist Party can maintain power while living standards continue to increase. Something will have to give at some point. A country like China inevitably will become a federal republic. The question is will it do so peacefully. |
My Chinese colleagues tell me that it is unlikely that China will become federalist any time soon.
What do you mean by authoritarian? The United States has strong authoritarian elements, and its strongest democratic element, its Congress, is acknowledged to be controlled by wealthy interests. We are comparing China, with all its inefficiencies, to the United States, with all its inefficiencies. Are you telling me that in 30 years China will be 3 times less efficient than the United States? Because in 30 years, its a strong bet that China's population will be three times that of the United States. Right now China has four people for every person in the United States. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
