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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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 Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:15 am Post subject: |
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I wonder what the Chinese are really worried about with a NK collapse?
Refugees? If the DMZ is opened up, I figure a few million will be headed towards Seoul. Why would they go into China? They can't speak the language. Seoul, or anywhere on the Korean peninsula is better than going into China for then.
American Troops getting even closer to the Chinese border? Well, if China had the balls to really deal with NK, they can easily negotiate with the US to keep US troops south of the DMZ.
The sooner NK collapses, the better it is for everyone. The region would be so much more stable. And Korea, as a whole, would see a bump in investment, without foreign investors worrying about the imagined NK boogyman. |
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yodanole
Joined: 02 Mar 2003
Location: La Florida
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| Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2016 10:49 am Post subject: |
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| Reunification will cost several pretty pennies. However it comes about. |
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Neil
Joined: 02 Jan 2004
Location: Tokyo
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| Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2016 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
I wonder what the Chinese are really worried about with a NK collapse?
Refugees? If the DMZ is opened up, I figure a few million will be headed towards Seoul. Why would they go into China? They can't speak the language. Seoul, or anywhere on the Korean peninsula is better than going into China for then.
American Troops getting even closer to the Chinese border? Well, if China had the balls to really deal with NK, they can easily negotiate with the US to keep US troops south of the DMZ.
The sooner NK collapses, the better it is for everyone. The region would be so much more stable. And Korea, as a whole, would see a bump in investment, without foreign investors worrying about the imagined NK boogyman. |
Syria and Libya have shown that overthrowing a dictator or attempting to is unpredictable at best.
You could wind up with a lengthy civil war between different factions, pro Kim, anti Kim, rebels backed by Seoul/Washington, rebels backed by Beijing/Moscow (unlikely to be the same groups). |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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Here's an article on new tougher sanctions proposed by U.S.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35664794
In tonight's Republican debate, the risky topic of "regime change" in North Korea was just brought up and supported by John Kasich (but wasn't addressed much by the other candidates ...) |
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motiontodismiss
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
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| Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| yodanole wrote: |
| Reunification will cost several pretty pennies. However it comes about. |
Korea will go under if it reunifies. Germany almost went under when it reunified, and they were much more prepared and they were separated for only half as long. Plus, Korea's already broke. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:06 am Post subject: |
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Hitchens said the Norks were a bunch of racist, xenophobic dwarves. IMO (admittedly nobody's asking for it) the status quo is preferable to having SK try to deal with that dysfunctional freak show in terms of an integration process.
Whatevs. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| Neil wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
I wonder what the Chinese are really worried about with a NK collapse?
Refugees? If the DMZ is opened up, I figure a few million will be headed towards Seoul. Why would they go into China? They can't speak the language. Seoul, or anywhere on the Korean peninsula is better than going into China for then.
American Troops getting even closer to the Chinese border? Well, if China had the balls to really deal with NK, they can easily negotiate with the US to keep US troops south of the DMZ.
The sooner NK collapses, the better it is for everyone. The region would be so much more stable. And Korea, as a whole, would see a bump in investment, without foreign investors worrying about the imagined NK boogyman. |
Syria and Libya have shown that overthrowing a dictator or attempting to is unpredictable at best.
You could wind up with a lengthy civil war between different factions, pro Kim, anti Kim, rebels backed by Seoul/Washington, rebels backed by Beijing/Moscow (unlikely to be the same groups). |
Are there really the underlying ethnic and religious divisions in North Korea to produce a Syrian or Libyan-style civil war?
In the overthrow of dictators stakes, for your Libya and Syria I raise you an East Germany and Czechoslovakia. |
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:57 am Post subject: |
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It's rhetoric and posturing, go back to bed there's nothing to worry about. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, but as they get closer to becoming a real nuclear threat to the U.S., the risk of a pre-emptive strike - by one side or the other - increases ... |
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Titus2
Joined: 06 Sep 2015
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| Posted: Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Nothing will come of this. |
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Harpeau
Joined: 01 Feb 2003
Location: Coquitlam, BC
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| Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:28 am Post subject: |
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| If North Korea collapses, South Korea will not open its borders and let people wander down. The Chinese will likely just keep buy Norks land around their border and make it essentially Chinese. They may then take over the country a la Tibet. |
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