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Long timers....has the threat of war ever been this serious?
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T-J



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae

PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 2:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The current dialogue, ramping up reminds me very much of ‘90 leading up to the Iraq War. I predict resolution one way or the other by September. Leaning toward preemptive strike unless action by DPRK prior to that date warrants an immediate response. Tick Tock...
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Rteacher



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that Trump's acceptance of Kim Jong-Un's invitation to meet for peace talks should relieve a lot of tension on the Korean peninsula - at least for a few months - and it could be that North Korea actually is now willing to seriously consider giving up much of its nuclear development for massive economic help and security guarantees (which would be good news indeed ...)
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Underwaterbob



Joined: 08 Jan 2005
Location: In Cognito

PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rteacher wrote:
I think that Trump's acceptance of Kim Jong-Un's invitation to meet for peace talks should relieve a lot of tension on the Korean peninsula - at least for a few months - and it could be that North Korea actually is now willing to seriously consider giving up much of its nuclear development for massive economic help and security guarantees (which would be good news indeed ...)


I'm not so sure about this. Putting them together is like cramming the two halves of a plutonium bar together resulting in a critical mass of childish name calling and dick waving. Does Trump have a diplomatic bone in his body?
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itiswhatitis



Joined: 08 Aug 2011

PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump is most likely calling the bluff of ordinary South Korean citizens by meeting with the NK dictator.

They show little compassion for their brothers in the North (even though they are the same people on the same peninsula).

Watch for South Koreans to beg the Americans soldiers to stay and to not want to have even the most modest reduction in their standard of living in order to support their brothers in the North.

Sk president Moon must be walking a fineline; he knows he cannot show weakness because South Koreans do not like that. Just as South Koreans do not give in with their daily petty spats with other "South" Koreans they do not want to give in with their brothers in the North.

Just as there is a pattern of escalation until the police being called of daily petty conflicts amongst ordinary "South" Koreans, there will likely be an escalation between the "North" and "South". I hate to say it, but a clear pattern of escalation exists with regards to how Koreans handle conflict.

This is not about Trump/Kim/Moon.

If one wants to know why Koreans are still living on a divided peninsula (in spite of having since 1953 under American protection to end their war) look no further than ordinary South Korean citizens. They are the ones to blame.
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tophatcat



Joined: 09 Aug 2006
Location: under the hat

PostPosted: Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

itiswhatitis wrote:
Trump is most likely calling the bluff of ordinary South Korean citizens by meeting with the NK dictator.

They show little compassion for their brothers in the North (even though they are the same people on the same peninsula).

Watch for South Koreans to beg the Americans soldiers to stay and to not want to have even the most modest reduction in their standard of living in order to support their brothers in the North.

Sk president Moon must be walking a fineline; he knows he cannot show weakness because South Koreans do not like that. Just as South Koreans do not give in with their daily petty spats with other "South" Koreans they do not want to give in with their brothers in the North.

Just as there is a pattern of escalation until the police being called of daily petty conflicts amongst ordinary "South" Koreans, there will likely be an escalation between the "North" and "South". I hate to say it, but a clear pattern of escalation exists with regards to how Koreans handle conflict.

This is not about Trump/Kim/Moon.

If one wants to know why Koreans are still living on a divided peninsula (in spite of having since 1953 under American protection to end their war) look no further than ordinary South Korean citizens. They are the ones to blame.


Excellent! You pretty much summarized the situation.

SK soldier numbers and enlistment times are being cut back. Soldier combat ability is at question now. What will the situation be when the soldiers are doing 18 months of service, or less? War Plan, retreat to Busan?

Having the US military in SK brings more economic benefits to the country than the paltry $1 Billion it spends to subsidize it.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The threat of China-US war has just leapfrogged the potential for any peninsular conflict.
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T-J



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae

PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
The threat of China-US war has just leapfrogged the potential for any peninsular conflict.


Pompeo and now Bolton. I think preventative first strike is back in the lead.
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Rteacher



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA

PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hopefully, the recent secret meetings between Mike Pompeo and Kim Jong-un can somehow produce a tenable peace accord - even if Trump gets credit for it ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/17/world/asia/trump-japan-north-korea-summit-talks.html

And reportedly, NK will not demand withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea as a precondition for denuclearization talks ... https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-seeks-complete-denuclearization-says-moon-u-vows-102357538.html
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ebrann



Joined: 18 Jun 2009

PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The wild card now, which has never existed before, is a US leader who answers only to his own ego, with no regard to anyone or anything else. Trump will order a strike on the North if and when he perceives that he will gain ego points for it. The only thing that can stop him if he gives the order is the leadership of the military who know they can't win. (I don't think anyone would call it a win if NK got lucky and hit LA with a nuke even though the North would end up as a crater.)

I've always viewed the North's nuclear program as defensive. The US has threatened to annihilate them dozens of times. Kim Jong Un just wants to be left alone to rule his kingdom. He knows he is far too weak to defeat the South.
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Rteacher



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA

PostPosted: Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, despite the egos involved, prospects for peace on the Korean peninsula have never looked so good as they do now ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea/north-koreas-kim-to-invite-u-s-experts-for-nuclear-site-shutdown-as-trump-presses-for-full-denuclearization-idUSKBN1HZ04K?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
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oatmeal



Joined: 26 Nov 2013

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm sorry but anyone who actually believes North Korea was ever a real threat to attack South Korea is delusional. This isn't the 1950s. That was a different world. North Korea today is not threatening anyone of war. It is the USA that is threatening war on Korean soil.

The US is a war mongering country because they thrive on the business of war and sales of arms....it's a fact, look it up.

I've said it for years. NK/SK will be better off working towards peace with the US out of the picture. As long as the US sticks their nose in here like they do in so many other parts of the world, there will always be tension and threats uttered back and forth because NK will not concede to the US. NK does want to pursue peace and cooperation with the global community but the US paints them as an evil regime because they don't want to give up their nuclear program? Let's see US give up their nuclear program and see how well they respond to that? NK has the right to protect themselves. If it were not for their nukes, the US would have bombed NK like they did Iraq and Afghanistan and many other nations.
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Rteacher



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's true that the threats are directed more to the U.S. now than towards South Korea, but those overt and implicit threats pose danger to South Korea unless a peace deal is reached. Although the U.S. has degraded morally under Trump, it's not as bad as North Korea ... https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2017/country-chapters/north-korea
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Rteacher



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA

PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2018 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Although Trump evidently canceled the scheduled peace summit with North Korea, I think that he (despite his war-monger advisers) and the other parties involved are strongly motivated to to negotiate a peace deal soon...

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/seoul-north-korea-committed-us-summit-denuclearization-012000665.html
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oatmeal



Joined: 26 Nov 2013

PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So the elephant in the room is, if a peace deal is finally made....does this mean the US can finally remove most or all of their 28,000 troops stationed here along with all the military bases and drills they keep running? It would be nice if they can finally leave because no, North Korea will NEVER invade.

Call me naive or cynical but I don't believe for a second the US want to leave. I know they tell us that it was mostly the S. Koreans request that the US troops stay in Korea and station here but I think the US quite enjoys occupying many countries in the world. It's strategic and beneficial for their industrial military complex.

It will be a wonderful day when we can finally see the US troops leave Okinawa and South Korea. No country, especially as advanced as Korea and Japan are require or need to have 80,000 US troops around. It's better for the US and the people to tend to matters on their own soil and it's better for Japan and Korea.
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itiswhatitis



Joined: 08 Aug 2011

PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oatmeal wrote:
So the elephant in the room is, if a peace deal is finally made....does this mean the US can finally remove most or all of their 28,000 troops stationed here along with all the military bases and drills they keep running? It would be nice if they can finally leave because no, North Korea will NEVER invade.

Call me naive or cynical but I don't believe for a second the US want to leave. I know they tell us that it was mostly the S. Koreans request that the US troops stay in Korea and station here but I think the US quite enjoys occupying many countries in the world. It's strategic and beneficial for their industrial military complex.

It will be a wonderful day when we can finally see the US troops leave Okinawa and South Korea. No country, especially as advanced as Korea and Japan are require or need to have 80,000 US troops around. It's better for the US and the people to tend to matters on their own soil and it's better for Japan and Korea.



"North" Koreans and "South" Koreans are the same people who are living on the same divided peninsula.

They have had since 1953 (under American protection) to negotiate peace and end their war.

Bottom line: If the Koreans would have ended their war the American soldiers would have been able to pack up and leave a long time ago.

I'm not suggesting that tells the whole story but that is the bottom line.

If I had not have lived and worked in "South" Korea I would likely be more inclined to blame America for their continued presence. However after working in SK and witnessing so much violence and seeing how Koreans handle conflict I am more inclined to blame Koreans. Just as "South" Koreans do not want to give in with their petty spats with each other they do not want to give in with their brothers in the North.
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