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Dot.com Bubble burst.. is the Housing Bubble next?
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Tiger Beer



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:22 am    Post subject: Dot.com Bubble burst.. is the Housing Bubble next? Reply with quote

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3722894

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SuperFly



Joined: 09 Jul 2003
Location: In the doghouse

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They've been saying that for about a year now here phx, but it's a sellers market...I just bought a fixer upper for 100K cash right off the I-17 and Bethany home. I'll sell it in three months for 145-50K after about 12-17K in materials...that's still good money. Smile of course, I'll be splitting that profit with my brother, but hey, it's only a part time gig for me...
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peppermint



Joined: 13 May 2003
Location: traversing the minefields of caddishness.

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here in Korea, I'd say yeahid only because those million dollar apartments in Apgu are built just as shoddily as the ones everywhere else.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

no way housing prices will drop where I am (SF Bay Area). They might stop rising, but drop? hasn't happened yet in my life and no reason it would happen now. Don't know about the rest of the country or other parts of the world.

The economist said it is now a smarter move to rent than buy a house.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2005 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucheon bum wrote:
no way housing prices will drop where I am (SF Bay Area). They might stop rising, but drop? hasn't happened yet in my life and no reason it would happen now. Don't know about the rest of the country or other parts of the world.

The economist said it is now a smarter move to rent than buy a house.


Home owning baby boomers grow old and want to sell their homes and move into a smaller place. Baby boomers die and leave their homes to their children and the children sell to get cash. I'm sure there are some parts of America where there will always be people moving there (like SF) but when you think about it, the boomer generation is going to be disposing of their homes in bulk sooner or later. And there simply isn't the population under them to buy the property at higher values.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2005 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

good theory. I think that will be especially true in the northern states, which haven't seen much population growth in the past decade or two. Throw in the baby boomer situation and property prices are bound to remain static or drop. On the flipside, I doubt real estate prices will drop in FL, AZ, and other warm climate states due to a) general migration to those states b) baby boomers retiring to traditional retiree spots.
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funplanet



Joined: 20 Jun 2003
Location: The new Bucheon!

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2005 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yep...
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Harin



Joined: 03 May 2004
Location: Garden of Eden

PostPosted: Sat Mar 12, 2005 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

god doesn't create any more land. i highly doubt that housing price'd ever go downhill.
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Wangja



Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan

PostPosted: Sat Mar 12, 2005 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, it has in the past, quite often and usually sharply.

There is a correlation between the cost of the "average" house and "avaerage" earnings.

In UK, the historical mean is around 4. Below that, house rpices are considered low and above high. At present, the ratio is over 5, implying that either houses are 25% over-valued and liable to a drop of 20% or that salaries are 20% too low and need to increase by 25%. Which is the more likley do you think?

Prices have always reverted to the mean, usually overshooting.

I see no reason why that should not happen again this time.

Although I talk about UK, the principles apply equally in the US and elsewhere.





Well, which way do you think the graph is headed next?
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Derrek



Joined: 15 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Sat Mar 12, 2005 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why did housing drop so much under Clinton?
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chiaa



Joined: 23 Aug 2003

PostPosted: Sat Mar 12, 2005 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where I am from and where I want to buy a house upon return, housing prices for new home are rising $3,000 A MONTH.

My brother bought a lot for 15.000 and in a year and a half the price has gone up to 40.000. A good part of this has to due to George Steinbrenner buying up a vast majority of the lots in the area.
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The Man known as The Man



Joined: 29 Mar 2003
Location: 3 cheers for Ted Haggard oh yeah!

PostPosted: Sun Mar 13, 2005 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A friend of mine bought a flat in Vancouver near 4th and Main just over 4 years ago.

Bring on the Olympics!
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Wangja



Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan

PostPosted: Sun Mar 13, 2005 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Derrek wrote:
Why did housing drop so much under Clinton?


Because they were too expensive, as they are now.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Derrek wrote:
Why did housing drop so much under Clinton?


Curious, where did this happen? Certainly not anywhere where I was living during his presidency (N. CA, TN, MO)
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Wangja



Joined: 17 May 2004
Location: Seoul, Yongsan

PostPosted: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucheon bum wrote:
Derrek wrote:
Why did housing drop so much under Clinton?


Curious, where did this happen? Certainly not anywhere where I was living during his presidency (N. CA, TN, MO)


Some detail at http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/4q04hpi.pdf

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