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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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 Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 10:40 pm Post subject: Conservatives way ahead now |
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Conservatives surge ahead of Liberals in new poll
Updated Sun. Jan. 8 2006 11:39 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
The Conservatives have taken an eight-point lead over the Liberals, with strong momentum that could carry them to victory on Jan. 23 unless the other parties can derail their campaign, says a new poll.
"They've got to put a halt to this, because this momentum number won't stop, and it will continue to translate into a higher vote preference for the Conservatives," Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner of The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca on Sunday.
The survey, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows the Conservatives have jumped ahead after making headway in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada(percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 37 per cent (+8)
* Liberals 29 per cent (-7)
* NDP: 15 per cent (-2)
* Bloc Quebecois: 13 per cent (unchanged)
* Greens: 6 per cent (+1)
When asked which party has momentum going towards the Jan. 23 vote, the results showed the Tories have a huge advantage over the other parties (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 53 per cent (+30)
* Liberals: 14 per cent (-19)
* NDP: 6 per cent (-4)
* Bloc Quebecois: 6 per cent (-3)
* Greens: 1 per cent (-1)
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's focus on the sponsorship scandal and alleged income trust leak seems to be working. There has been a rise in the number of Canadians who think the values of the Conservative Party match their own (percentage point change from a pre-election, Nov. 24-27 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 29 per cent (+5)
* Liberals: 23 per cent (-4)
* NDP: 17 per cent (-1)
* Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-2)
* Greens: 5 per cent (+1)
The Conservatives are also beating the Liberals on which platform voters prefer. Twice as many Canadians found that the Conservative Party has introduced the most appealing policies:
* Conservatives: 36 per cent
* Liberals: 18 per cent
* NDP: 12 per cent
* Bloc Quebecois: 5 per cent
* Greens: 3 per cent
"The Conservative policies have been targeted at the middle-class voter, and clearly that's connecting," Woolstencroft said.
"We see that in Quebec, and we see that across the country. Those moderate, middle-class policies have struck a chord."
Regional numbers
Conservatives have made a dramatic jump in Quebec since Christmas, far surpassing the party's 2004 election results and taking votes away from the Bloc.
With momentum still climbing, especially outside Montreal, Woolstencroft said the Tories will likely win at least two seats in the province (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
* Bloc Quebecois: 52 per cent (unchanged)
* Liberals: 21 per cent (-8)
* Conservatives: 19 per cent (+11)
* NDP: 6 per cent (-2)
* Greens: 2 per cent (-1)
"When we ran our model last week and they were at 15 (per cent), we had them at one seat in Quebec City," Woolstencroft said. "At 19 points, they're probably picking up two, three or four seats."
Even in Ontario, where Liberal support has remained strong, the Conservatives have reached a statistical tie with the Grits (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 41 per cent (-8)
* Liberals: 40 per cent (-7)
* NDP: 14 per cent (-2)
* Greens: 5 per cent (+1)
In 2004, the Tories had 32 per cent support in Ontario.
Over the Christmas period, votes went from the Liberals to alternative parties such as the NDP and the Green Party, said Allan Gregg, chairman of The Strategic Counsel. However, those same votes are now starting to shift again, but not back to the Liberals.
"The NDP vote and the Green vote have gravitated towards the Conservatives," Gregg said.
In B.C., where 36 seats are available, the Tories have made a large gain and hit another campaign high (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 37 per cent (+8)
* Liberals: 28 per cent (-7)
* NDP: 26 per cent (-4)
* Greens: 9 per cent (+3)
"Unquestionably, one of the most competitive regions in the country," Gregg said.
Meanwhile, support for the Conservatives remains firm in the Prairies, while the Liberals have fallen to their lowest point since the start of the campaign (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 53 per cent (-1)
* Liberals: 18 per cent (-5)
* NDP: 20 per cent (+5)
* Greens: 9 per cent (-1) |
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RachaelRoo
Joined: 15 Jul 2005
Location: Anywhere but Ulsan!
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| Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 11:02 pm Post subject: |
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Wow.
I can't wait to see the results come in....Prime Minister Stephen Harper??!!
I never thought that this would happen. |
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laogaiguk
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Location: somewhere in Korea
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| Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 11:05 pm Post subject: |
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| RachaelRoo wrote: |
Wow.
I can't wait to see the results come in....Prime Minister Stephen Harper??!!
I never thought that this would happen. |
If that happens, I don't think I want to live in any English speaking country. Maybe South Africa, or possibly New Zealand, but that's it. |
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Mr.Glass
Joined: 08 Jan 2006
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2006 11:33 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't think anybody could be worse than Paul Martin...oh wait, basically every PM since Trudeau... |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 12:55 am Post subject: |
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| I'd like for Harper to be PM but I think he has as much chance as winning as one of us has of becoming president of Korea. The people will hold their nose and elect the Liberals because they've been basically brain-washed by the Liberals into believing that Harper has a hidden agenda. Come on people this is a democracy. Even if Harper did he'd never get far, certainly not with a minority government. |
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Yu_Bum_suk
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 3:03 am Post subject: |
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| If he wins it will still be a minority. What the liberal PR men really have to do now is try to get Stockwell Day interviewed at every possible opportunity. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 3:51 am Post subject: |
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| laogaiguk wrote: |
| RachaelRoo wrote: |
Wow.
I can't wait to see the results come in....Prime Minister Stephen Harper??!!
I never thought that this would happen. |
If that happens, I don't think I want to live in any English speaking country. Maybe South Africa, or possibly New Zealand, but that's it. |
Lets try not to overreact, shall we? |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 4:38 am Post subject: |
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See what a difference a little popularity in Ontario can make:
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 5:11 am Post subject: |
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uh.... guys... those are minority government numbers...
and which party would jump into bed with the Conservative Party?
....
that's what I thought
prediction: another election called before year's end |
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Moldy Rutabaga
Joined: 01 Jul 2003
Location: Ansan, Korea
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 5:46 am Post subject: |
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No government party since Pearson in the 60s has had an actual majority of votes. Mulroney, ironically, came the closest. Very small changes in voting loyalties can make a majority government. The Conservatives are poised to do so if they can continue to ride this throw-the-bums-out feeling that seems to be strong now, just as it was in '83 under Trudeau and in '93 under Mulroney.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Anyone who can give an electoral kick in the pants to the Liberals sounds good to me.
Ken:> |
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Wrench
Joined: 07 Apr 2005
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 6:44 am Post subject: |
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| How would I go about geting to vote. |
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Wrench
Joined: 07 Apr 2005
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 6:46 am Post subject: |
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| Mr.Glass wrote: |
| I don't think anybody could be worse than Paul Martin...oh wait, basically every PM since Trudeau... |
Trudeau was a commy idiot..
I don't think we had a descend PM since ww2.. The start of the worst PM's was Diefenbaker. |
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capebretoncanadian
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 9:11 am Post subject: |
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| The conservatives were polling ahead of the liberals at points in the last election campaign too. What happened that time? |
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 4:47 pm Post subject: |
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"Conservatives in the lead" announcements actually undermines the protest vote as some people vote Liberal because they fear the possibility that the Conservatives might actually win (radical reformers - shudder).
Many want to rock the boat not capsize it! |
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Mr.Glass
Joined: 08 Jan 2006
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Wrench wrote: |
| Mr.Glass wrote: |
| I don't think anybody could be worse than Paul Martin...oh wait, basically every PM since Trudeau... |
Trudeau was a commy idiot..
I don't think we had a descend PM since ww2.. The start of the worst PM's was Diefenbaker. |
Well I meant to include him, "since" meaning since he started...sorry for the miscommunication. No need to call anybody an idiot. Nobody likes a PM who goes from 0 debt to about 200+ billion. |
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