Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Rteacher]

It used to be billed as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports" ... Although corruption including drug and race-fixing scandals have taken its toll on the equine racing industry, the Kentucky Derby is still a major sporting spectacle which commands the attention of a broad range of the social spectrum from blueblood socialites to street hustlers...

This year's "Run for the Roses" is this Saturday (around 6:30am Sunday morning here...) Sadly, it's doubtful that AFN Prime will carry it (they haven't he last couple years since it's been on NBC...) Anyway, it's a big part of sports Americana - and even Canadians have had a major impact on this "jewel of the Triple Crown".

For one thing, the greatest sire in horse-breeding history, Northern Dancer, was Canadian-bred, and that little horse who was an upset winner of the 1964 Derby is in the pedigree of about 90% of all thoroughbreds today. Also, the horse that most experts consider the best Derby-winner of all time, Secretariat, was ridden to victory by a Canadian jockey, Ron Turcotte.

Last year a big longshot, Giacomo, won it at 60-1 odds, and the exotics (trifecta and superfecta) payoffs were huge. (I think a two dollar straight superfecta winning ticket paid close to a million dollars - and the odds of hitting it were way better than hitting a lottery ... although up to 20 horses can be entered there won't be more than 14 betting interests as the longest shots are grouped as "the field")

I was thinking of running a Kentucky derby "handicapping" contest with the winner getting something (personally I email my picks to my brother who makes bets for me - gambling has always plaqued all sides of my family...only when I was a strict monk did I somehow abstain for 13 years...)

The simplest thing would be to just take stabs at who we think will finish first, who will finish in the top 3 (trifecta box) and three horses to key under our winner pick for a superfecta bet. So, for a mythical twenty dollar bet, everyone could "bet" eight dollars on the win bet, six dollars on the trifecta box, and six dollars on the superfecta key...

I'll probably wait till Friday to post my picks - mainly because the post positions are usually drawn on Thursday...
There are many web sites with info. The official Derby site is -
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_coverage/derby_entrants/

[Rteacher]

I actually tried to have 14 poll options to reflect the number of betting interests in the race, but 10 was the max I could enter (possible I can get help from a tech-savvy mod like "JacktheCat" to extend it to include the following horses that have a decent shot: "Bluegrass Cat", "Cause to Believe", "Keyed Entry" and "Sharp Humor"...)

I have no idea if there are actually any other horse race aficianados out here in expat land - my guess would be fewer than ten - but the Derby (at least back in the states...) has cross-over pop-culture appeal that sorta transcends the sport and can capture the general public's interest if there's a good background story (ala Seabiscuit...)

[hogwonguy1979]

hey i've been to the Derby its a hell of a party in the infield when I went in 1983 (got a great Howard Cosell story from that one). A better party used to be at the end of the month about 100 or so miles up I-65, the Indianapolis 500. The nite before the race you'd line up outside the track waiting for the infield to open at 5AM wildest party I've been to.

I used to love to go the track, you get better odds than in a casino or playing lotteries. I need to read up before making my pick.

You can forget about it being on AFN, in all my years here it has NEVER been on here. Best bet is again streamtv or getting a slingbox

There is a track here where you can play the ponies, haven't been there but I bet the quality aint that great

[Nowhere Man]

Horse races should be picked solely upon the horses' names. All that other crap should be hidden.

In this crop, Steppenwolfer is clearly the best name.

He should be ridden by Barry Bonds and fed a basket of meth amphetamines 12 minutes before the race.

This should also be standard protocol for all Olympic events, boxing events, polo, and chess tournaments.

The problem is not drugs. The problem is that we need to push athletes to see how far they can go.

Embrace the times. It's all fixed.

BUT How far can we fix it?

I want pharmaceutical sponsorships and exploding hearts.

And more athletes named Sinister Minister. At least one in every sport.

Yeah.

YEAH!

Rant over.

Go Steppenwolfer.

[Rteacher]

Hmmm - I thought Steppenwolfer's jockey was John Kaye...

(For a while they used to try to rig races by stuffing corks up a horses nostrils...)

Yeah, I've been to the Indy 500 infield in the old days - as far back as 1976 for me (I even remember when "Spring Break" was huge in Fort Lauderdale and Daytona Beach...) but I never made it to Louisville for the Derby...

My father used to take the whole family to a horse track in New England practically every week, and I discovered by the time I was in high school that I was a compulsive gambler (although I was good at analyzing races and picking winners I'd always keep going till I either ran out of money - or there were no more races...) Now, I try to limit myself to just the Triple Crown and Breeder's Cup (... )

Namewise, I'm torn between "Sinister Minister" and "Sacred Light"...

[Ya-ta Boy]

I partially agree with Nowhere Man. Horses should be chosen of one of two factors: name or color. In my opinion, Sinister Minister is an even better name than Steppenwolfer, so that is who my money is on.

[Rteacher]

Actually, Sinister Minister is probably a good bet. On paper, he has the fastest time (for a mile and-an-eighth...) but all the so-called experts (probably wanting to drive his odds up...) claim that his chances of winning are like a fart's chances of surviving in a whirlwind...

As far as the name Sinister Minister goes, the only knock on it is that it's probably a rip-off from a fairly well-known (to die-hard fans...) outrageous pro wrestling manager who uses that name:

Here's from Wikipedia:

James Mitchell, sometimes Jim Mitchell, is an American professional wrestling manager, best known for his appearances with World Championship Wrestling as James Vandenberg and with Extreme Championship Wrestling as The Sinister Minister. He is currently working under his own name for Total Nonstop Action Wrestling, where he is the manager of Abyss.

In addition to wrestling, Mitchell operates a karaoke business in Florida.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Mitchell_(wrestler)
[That karaoke business could be even more sinister than pro wrestling or horse racing... ]

[Nowhere Man]

Are you sure it's not James Vandenberg running in the derby?

[Rteacher]

Well, they drew for post positions today. "Brother Derek" was installed as the pre-race favorite at 3-1 odds despite drawing a very difficult outside post (#1. It appears to be a wide-open race (I'll play all my lucky numbers and hunches...) Here's the complete field listed by "horse" - jockey/trainer (and current odds for leading contenders)

1. "Jazil" - Jara / McLaughlin
2. "Steppenwolfer" - Albarado / Peitz
3. "Keyed Entry" - Valenzuela / Plechter
4. "Sinister Minister" - Espinoza / Baffert (12-1)
5. "Point Determined" - Bejarano / Baffert (12-1)
6. "Showing Up" - Velasquez / Tagg (20-1)
7. "Bob and John" - Gomez / Baffert (12-1)
8. "Barbaro" - Prado/ Matz (4-1)
9. "Sharp Humor" - Guidry / Romans
10. "A.P. Warrior" - Nakatani / Shirreffs (15-1)
11. "Sweetnorthernsaint" - Desormeaux / Trombetta (10-1)
12. "Private Vow" - Bridgmohan / Asmussen
13. "Bluegrass Cat" - Dominguez / Plechter
14. "Deputy Glitters" - Lezcano / Albertrani
15. "Seaside Retreat" - Husbands / Casse
16. "Cause to Believe" - R. Baze / Hollendorfer
17. "Lawyer Ron" - McKee / Holthus (4-1)
18. "Brother Derek" - Solis / Hendricks (3-1)
19. "Storm Treasure" - Flores / Asmussen
20. "Flashy Bull" - Smith / McLaughlin

Most Derby victories, by post positions
PP Wins Last time
1 12 1986 (Ferdinand)
5 12 2003 (Funny Cide)
10 10 2005 (Giacomo)
4 10 1977 (Seattle Slew)
2 9 1978 (Affirmed)
3 8 1998 (Real Quiet)
8 8 1994 (Go For Gin)

[Rteacher]

Here're some postage stamp photos of some of the Derby horses:

Sweetnorthernsaint

Steppenwolfer

Sinister Minister

Flashy Bull

Brother Derek

Bob and John

A.P. Warrior

Favorite Brother Derek in front of famous Twin Spires of Churchill Downs...

Lawyer Ron - one of the main contenders - taking a walk...

[Rteacher]

All right, it's a wide-open race with too many horses and good chance of rain showers...

The consensus among so-called experts is that the initial pace will be too fast because of several horses that have a lot of speed and need to be on the lead.

Sinister Minister (#4) is probably the speed of the speed, and with him it's likely all-or-nothing. I think he has a decent chance to win, but he'll probably be pressed too hard and not be able to carry his speed all the way and drop back...

Sharp Humor is another (#9) speed horse who may be able to hang on longer for a share of the money...

Sweetnorthernsaint (#11) has good speed and a good closing kick, giving him a good chance if he avoids bumping other horses at the start ...

Barbaro (# is another speed horse who may be able to rate well, and he is also very tough fighter down the stretch (holding off Sharp Humor in the Florida Derby...)

A.P. Warrior (#10) has great breeding to go the distance, but he needs to be peaking near his best to win it all...

Point Determined (#5) is another horse bred for the classic distance, and he's got the best post position...

Steppenwolfer (#2) figures to be way behind but moving very well late...

Lawyer Ron (#17) is the most accomplished horse, and he's one of the favorites, but his post position isn't favorable.

Brother Derek (#1 is the favorite and has been very impressive on the California circuit, but has yet to compete in a crowded field, and his post position is also not very good...

Among the longer shots, I think that Showing Up (#6), Private Vow (#10) have good post positions and chances of finishing in the money.

Even longer shots with a chance are Jazil (#1) Storm Treasure (#19) and Flashy Bull (#20) but they have what are now thought to be lousy post positions.

Keyed Entry (#3) figures to get burned in a speed duel, but could surprise with a career effort.

A really big surprise winner would be Bluegrass Cat (#13) who was once highly regarded but has floundered lately.

If the speed breaks down and Steppenwolfer and Jazil are too far back to win it a closer like Cause to Believe (#16) could win it all...

The year's Derby appears to be exceptionally difficult to forecast

I'll go with a few exacta boxes: 4-9, 5-9, 8-10, and 8-11,

a few trifecta boxes: 5-11-6, 5-8-10, 2-16-17 and ,17-18-19,

and a few straight superfectas: 9-7-2-6, 4-3-2-8,
8-18-9-11 and 8-10-12-2.

(So, if I were really betting it'd cost me forty bucks ... can't wait to see how it turns out (I hope I can figure out how to watch it on the computer - or at least listen to it...) I know that MSNBC online will show replays soon after the race ...