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Let's Talk Stocks
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4 months left



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:35 pm    Post subject: Let's Talk Stocks Reply with quote

What do you have, what do you like?

Recently purchased Zedi solutions - wireless digital monitoring of gas wells
also have Cemex (CX), Valero (VLO) and Encana (ECA) among others. Always looking for new ideas
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As an economist i find this dangerous talk Smile

In the end it is all about what you trust.

Sorry to make such a silly post
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4 months left



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Juregen wrote:
As an economist i find this dangerous talk Smile

In the end it is all about what you trust.

Sorry to make such a silly post


As an Econ major and a future analyst, what I find dangerous is not planning for the future. Always good to share info. but you are right, if you make an investment in a stock do your due diligence and be prepared what to do in the event of a rise or fall of your stock.
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

4 months left wrote:
Juregen wrote:
As an economist i find this dangerous talk Smile

In the end it is all about what you trust.

Sorry to make such a silly post


As an Econ major and a future analyst, what I find dangerous is not planning for the future. Always good to share info. but you are right, if you make an investment in a stock do your due diligence and be prepared what to do in the event of a rise or fall of your stock.


Haa a fellow economist.

well, my opinion is that you should never put money you "need" in stocks. Just use money that is above your yearly requirements and "play" with that.

If you do a good job, it will greatly increase your future economic situation, if you bodge it, at least your normal life won't suffer under it.

But i do think that we are in good times to start investing, once Bush is kicked out of his seat, and they put a decent guy in there. The world can again think about becoming propserous Smile.

That said, at the moment i don't have "too" much money on the side, so i am not checking any possible stocks.
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4 months left



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Juregen wrote:
Haa a fellow economist.

well, my opinion is that you should never put money you "need" in stocks. Just use money that is above your yearly requirements and "play" with that.

If you do a good job, it will greatly increase your future economic situation, if you bodge it, at least your normal life won't suffer under it.

But i do think that we are in good times to start investing, once Bush is kicked out of his seat, and they put a decent guy in there. The world can again think about becoming propserous Smile.

That said, at the moment i don't have "too" much money on the side, so i am not checking any possible stocks.


Agreed, but due to stupid mistakes made in the past, that's why I am back in Korea again. It sure isn't for the women or the scenery.

It would be nice to see that inflation is starting to come under control in the US after the PPI and CPI reports of the last two days. I hear anywhere from a 25-40% chance for recession in 2007 but the world should be able to withstand a US recession much better these days although it won't be totally immuned.

A lot comes down to whether there will be a hard or soft landing in US housing prices and of course as always the oil price which today OPEC said they overestimated world demand by 80,000 barrels a day.
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dulouz



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Uranus

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, invest in prison companies in the USA. There is some big illegal alien detention business coming. Corrections Corporation of America is a good bet.
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ha yes the effect of American housing bubbles on the stockmarket is baffling to me.

My assumption is that Americans tend to take much more risk then the European counterparts, meaning they tend to invest money they need for living, in hopes of gaining greater wealth, hence the mortgage on the house and the effect it has on the stockmarket. Really really weird and risky.


Also Americans tend to go into more risky investments as such, because of the greater pay-off. But there is a reason for this greater pay-off, and that is the risk itself. Most people don't realise that risk and pay off are interrelated and that it is better to invest in secure investments with money you "need", so you can't lose it, and you can do whatever you want with money you can "lose".
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4 months left



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's because the US housing, construction and ancillary businesses account for around 5-6% of the economy. I guess akin to the Korean prostitute business taking a big hit. Wink

Americans tend to spend the increased equity in their houses on things such as boats, another car, home entertainment and not think that it's possible prices can come down.
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

4 months left wrote:

Americans tend to spend the increased equity in their houses on things such as boats, another car, home entertainment and not think that it's possible prices can come down.


Haa yes the illusion of ever rising prices, basicly the source of any bubble.
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SuperHero



Joined: 10 Dec 2003
Location: Superhero Hideout

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm preparing to start investing within the next couple of months and I've pretty much determined to take a value investor approach. I'm especially not interested in day trading. I want to buy a stock and hold it until I find something better or I determine that the company has lost it's value.
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Bill Brasky



Joined: 13 Feb 2006

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

drq

gild
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SuperHero wrote:
I'm preparing to start investing within the next couple of months and I've pretty much determined to take a value investor approach. I'm especially not interested in day trading. I want to buy a stock and hold it until I find something better or I determine that the company has lost it's value.


Would you go for the big ol' trusted ones, or for the fresh young ones with growth potential?
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seoulshock



Joined: 12 Jul 2005

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

since 1999 my annual returns have averaged 17.6% annually for my "regular" account. i also do dollar-cost-averaging, where i invest in the same stocks every month.

about 60% of my portfolio is REITs, esp. ones that pay higher dividends per year, and the rest include companies that are big and well known for the most part (like home depot), but a good portion of those big companies are banks. banks are great. thank you Wash mutual, wells fargo, b of a, and comerica. thank you.

one of my neighbors is rex sinquefield (invented index fund investing in the 70's, and is worth hundreds of millions), and although my account isn't big enough to be accepted by his firm (DFA), i have a feeling my 7-year stock picking track record beats at least 80% of the planners/managers/brokers that work with DFA.

the secret is basically (for me, anyway):

1) decide how much to invest every month (ie: $10,000)
2) if you have say, 10 stocks, put $1,000 into each of those stocks every month ($1,000 x 10 = $10,000).
3) only invest in strong companies that either have 10+ years of higher EPS or dividends... or both. basically the top 1-2% of all publicly traded companies.
4) when the market goes up, you'll make money.
5) when the market goes down, you'll buy shares at a "discount", because if they're strong companies, they'll still go up eventually.
6) keep going at it... month after month.
7) as your income goes up, increase the amt. you invest.
Cool never miss a month.
9) when you get old... or when you have enough to retire, then you can enjoy it.

for example, if you needed say... $100,000/year to be happy, then all you'd need is a nest egg of say... $1.7 million. you put that $1.7 million into some stocks or preferably reits (real estate investment trusts) that pay 6%+ annually. At $1.7 million, and getting 6%, that's $102,000/year without doing anything.

if you're happy with just $25,000/year and want to retire in some third world country or somewhere like idaho or montana, then you only need a nest egg of about $425,000.

a lot of you teachers are making like 30,000,000 KRW/year... i'd say put at least 10% or 3,000,000 KRW away each year to invest... though i'd probably put as much as i could (probably close to 20,000,000 KRW/year... assuming i don't pay taxes) away... just so i could retire sooner.

but if you can put away say $6,000 USD/year into an investment account, in 30 years, that's $180,000 USD... but there's the gains that went along with all that. assuming you're a decent investor who doesn't invest in all the "hot picks" of the day, you could probably get 10% a year.. in which case your money would double every 7 years or so (rule of 72.. 72/10= 7.2 years).

so you woulnd't have $180,000 after 30 years, it would probably be more like a million... well i'm not sure, i don't have a scientific calculator handy. but i'd say somewhere arounda million.. in which case you could retire with $60,000/year passive income.

not bad, ey?

as for me, i'd be happy with $500,000/year passive (i want to travel a lot when i retire). For that I need about $8.3 million as a nest egg. i'm almost 1/4 of the way there, and i still have about 25 years until my set "retirement" date, so i should have enough time, but who knows, i might not... even if it takes 30 years, it's ok.

by then, the life expectancy will be 100+ so it's fine!
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seoulshock



Joined: 12 Jul 2005

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

by the way, stay out of debt. and you should probably get out of debt before you start investing.

after all, if you're paying off credit cards that have 18% interest... then might as well pay that off FIRST, before you start investing in the stock market... unless you KNOW you can get more than 18%... but that's unlikely.

so get out of debt first, and THEN put your money into the market.

then again, if you are in too much debt you probably wouldn't have the discipline to put money away into an investment count, every month, month after month.
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laogaiguk



Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Location: somewhere in Korea

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

seoulshock wrote:


1) decide how much to invest every month (ie: $10,000)
2) if you have say, 10 stocks, put $1,000 into each of those stocks every month ($1,000 x 10 = $10,000).


Did you really have to put the bolded part ??? Wink
I know there are a lot of mathematically challenged artsies on this board, but still... Smile
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