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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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 Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:45 am Post subject: Disturbing |
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One sentence in this article is pretty disturbing. Can anybody guess which it is?
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WASHINGTON, Sept. 3 � After a year of political turmoil, Republicans enter the fall campaign with their control of the House in serious jeopardy, the possibility of major losses in the Senate, and a national mood so unsettled that districts once considered safely Republican are now competitive, analysts and strategists in both parties say.
Sixty-five days before the election, the signs of Republican vulnerability are widespread.
Indiana, which President Bush carried by 21 percentage points in 2004, now has three Republican House incumbents in fiercely contested races. Around the country, some of the most senior Republicans are facing their stiffest challenges in years, including Representative E. Clay Shaw Jr. of Florida, the veteran Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee; Representative Nancy L. Johnson of Connecticut, a state increasingly symbolic of this year�s political unrest; and Representative Deborah Pryce of Ohio, the No. 4 Republican in the House.
Two independent political analysts have, in recent weeks, forecast a narrow Democratic takeover of the House, if current political conditions persist. Stuart Rothenberg, who had predicted Democratic gains of 8 to 12 seats in the House, now projects 15 to 20. Democrats need 15 to regain the majority. Charles Cook, the other analyst, said: �If nothing changes, I think the House will turn. The key is, if nothing changes.�
Republican leaders are determined to change things. Unlike the Democrats of 1994, caught off guard and astonished when they lost control of the Senate and the House that year, the Republicans have had ample warning of the gathering storm.
�I have been in all these tough races, and the ones in those tough races are doing what they have to do,� said Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the House majority leader, who spent all but two days of the August recess campaigning for fellow Republicans. �It is a difficult environment. I can see us losing a seat or two. But I don�t see us losing our majority at all.�
Representative Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, countered, �The Republicans are playing defense in over 40 races � one-tenth of the House.�
�My biggest worry,� Mr. Emanuel said, �is getting overpowered from a financial perspective.�
A turnover in the Senate, which would require the Democrats to pick up six seats, is considered a longer shot. Democrats� greatest hopes rest with Pennsylvania, Montana, Rhode Island, Ohio and Missouri; the sixth seat is more of a leap of faith.
It would require Democrats to carry a state like Tennessee, Arizona or Virginia, where Democratic hopes are buoyed as Senator George Allen, a Republican, deals with the fallout from his using a demeaning term for a young man of Indian descent at a rally last month.
Democrats must also beat back Republican challenges to Senate seats in Washington, New Jersey, Maryland and Minnesota.
National polls show that key indicators � presidential approval ratings, Congressional approval ratings, attitudes on the direction of the country � reflect an electorate unhappy with the status quo and open to change.
�It�s the most difficult off-year cycle for the Republicans since 1982,� said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma and former chief of staff to the Republican National Committee. �Environmentally, it�s about as good from the Democratic perspective as they could hope to have.�
In the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, just 29 percent said the country was headed in the right direction, a measure of national pessimism that rivals the 26 percent who felt that way in October 1994. The war in Iraq, the price of gas and a sense of economic unease all play roles, analysts say. The mood is particularly sour in states like Indiana and Ohio, where it is stoked by local issues and the Republican governors� political difficulties.
Representative Chris Chocola, easily re-elected two years ago from the district centered in South Bend, Ind., is battling a Democrat, Joe Donnelly, in a race so tight that several people offered Mr. Chocola their sympathies on the campaign trail this week. �You doing O.K.?� a bank executive asked at a groundbreaking for a small manufacturing company. Mr. Chocola replied, �It�s an exercise in democracy.�
Mr. Chocola began advertising in March, rather than in May as he has in his three previous races. The attacks and counterattacks have been swift and nasty. In one recent round, the Chocola campaign charged that Mr. Donnelly, who owns a printing and rubber stamp company, had paid his property taxes late 15 times. �Joe Donnelly wants to raise our taxes,� the ad warned. �Even worse, he�s delinquent paying his own.�
Mr. Donnelly�s advertisement pointed out that the company Mr. Chocola once ran, which manufactures products for the agricultural industry, had itself missed a tax payment of $67 one year. �But hypocrisy is normal in Washington,� the ad said, concluding, �It�s time for a new congressman.�
Outside groups are advertising heavily there, as well: trial lawyers and MoveOn.org against Mr. Chocola, the Chamber of Commerce in his favor.
Even in such a climate, Republicans retain some formidable institutional advantages to help them hold on, Mr. Cole and others say. After 12 years in control of the House, Republicans have done much to fortify their incumbents, including having district lines so carefully drawn that even in a tumultuous year only about 40 House races are seriously competitive, compared with roughly 100 considered in play in 1994.
Moreover, Republicans are counting on their vaunted get-out-the-vote campaign, which proved so effective in 2002 and 2004, to overcome what many concede is a less than enthusiastic conservative base. The Republicans are also expected to have a financial edge this fall, although the Democrats have worked hard to narrow it. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:07 am Post subject: |
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| I just like that one guy is named Chocola. He shouldn't be running for Congress but he should be trying to get the Queen to appoint him a Count. |
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Junior
Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:31 am Post subject: |
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| Republicans have done much to fortify their incumbents, including having district lines so carefully drawn that even in a tumultuous year only about 40 House races are seriously competitive |
-is that the sentence you were thinking of? They've rigged the whole thing in their favour. |
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Troll_Bait
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: [T]eaching experience doesn't matter much. -Lee Young-chan (pictured)
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:37 am Post subject: |
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| "It would require Democrats to carry a state like Tennessee, Arizona or Virginia, where Democratic hopes are buoyed as Senator George Allen, a Republican, deals with the fallout from his using a demeaning term for a young man of Indian descent at a rally last month." |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:09 am Post subject: |
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| Junior wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Republicans have done much to fortify their incumbents, including having district lines so carefully drawn that even in a tumultuous year only about 40 House races are seriously competitive |
-is that the sentence you were thinking of? They've rigged the whole thing in their favour. |
Yes, that's exactly the one. I was disturbed by how casually the newspaper mentioned it, like they just remembered. "Oh yeah, and they also redrew all of the districts." Shrug. |
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Leslie Cheswyck
Joined: 31 May 2003
Location: University of Western Chile
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:13 am Post subject: |
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The party in power redrawing the districts. How shocking!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymander
It's been around forever. That is why it is so casually mentioned. And when the Democrats win, guess what they're going to do... |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:22 am Post subject: |
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| Leslie Cheswyck wrote: |
The party in power redrawing the districts. How shocking!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymander
It's been around forever. That is why it is so casually mentioned. And when the Democrats win, guess what they're going to do... |
Yes, bribery has been around forever too. Bribery. Shrug.
I would have been just as disturbed if the situation were reversed. And no, I wasn't disturbed when Clinton was in power. Because I was in high school.
How about not letting parties in power redraw districts? Just a thought.
Oh, and from your own source:
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| Gerrymandering is most common in countries such as the United States of America where elected politicians are responsible for drawing districts. |
This seems like a no-brainer to me. |
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Leslie Cheswyck
Joined: 31 May 2003
Location: University of Western Chile
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:34 am Post subject: |
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Good luck with that.
I remember hearing about a court ruling stating that Congressional districts had to have some "reasonable geographic shape" to them, (Words and quotes are mine) and not some crazy, flipped out Rorschacht look.
I feel the same as you do.
http://www.p2pforamerica.org/howitworks/id36.html |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:42 am Post subject: |
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| Leslie Cheswyck wrote: |
Good luck with that.
I remember hearing about a court ruling stating that Congressional districts had to have some "reasonable geographic shape" to them, (Words and quotes are mine) and not some crazy, flipped out Rorschacht look.
I feel the same as you do.
http://www.p2pforamerica.org/howitworks/id36.html |
Yeah. Good luck with that indeed.  Now what to do, I wonder. Think think think. |
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happeningthang
Joined: 26 Apr 2003
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:53 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| I just like that one guy is named Chocola. He shouldn't be running for Congress but he should be trying to get the Queen to appoint him a Count. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:37 am Post subject: |
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| Republican leaders are determined to change things. |
Given that gerrymandering is as common as not counting chads, it can't really be the most frightening sentence there. The above gets my vote. It is a forecast of the further election fraud to come. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:06 am Post subject: |
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| mithridates wrote: |
How about not letting parties in power redraw districts? Just a thought.
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Look up Iowa. It has a non-partisan board responsible for this. I think it is the only state that does it though. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Leslie Cheswyck wrote: |
| The party in power redrawing the districts. How shocking! |
My sentiments exactly.
This and people's "outrage" upon "discovering" that not only political parties, but also corporations and nation-states act according to their own interests.
Welcome to the adult table, everybody. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:32 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
How about not letting parties in power redraw districts? Just a thought.
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Look up Iowa. It has a non-partisan board responsible for this. I think it is the only state that does it though. |
That's good to see, and quite recently done too:
http://www.centrists.org/pages/2004/07/7_buck_trust.html
Would gerrymandering have to be gotten rid of one state at a time in this way, or is there a federal solution as well? |
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Boodleheimer
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Location: working undercover for the Man
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| Posted: Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Troll_Bait wrote: |
| "It would require Democrats to carry a state like Tennessee, Arizona or Virginia, where Democratic hopes are buoyed as Senator George Allen, a Republican, deals with the fallout from his using a demeaning term for a young man of Indian descent at a rally last month." |
he called the poor guy a Macaca and said "welcome to the real world"
i'm so embarrassed. he used to be governor of our fine state as well. i hope virginia turns blue soon, cuz i can't deal with being from a red state. |
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