Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Yesterday]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061003/ts_nm/korea_north_nuclear_dc

.......compel the DPRK (North Korea) to conduct a nuclear test, an essential process for bolstering nuclear deterrent, as a corresponding measure for defense," the statement said.

exactly what kind of logic is this?

we want to explode a nuclear bomb... to try to deter nuclear activity.... ??

[RACETRAITOR]

Maybe they're afraid the US or Japan will use a pre-emptive strike on them. It's not like either of those countries are known for using that tactic.

[Zark]

Take your cue from the Koreans themselves - who generally are not too concerned about the situation. They have been exposed to this type of brinksmanship for over fifty years.

After the failed missle tests a while back - maybe these tests will fail too. It is certainly higher tech.

[Wangja]

[wylies99]

If they come over that border, you lefties will be peeing your panties, putting down your bongs, hugging your boyfriends, and waving American flags as you wait for the US military to save you from the communists.

[TheDonnasTurned21]

[Gaber]

[blackbird]

The nuclear deterrent will not be worth as much once the American military has moved to Pyongtaek. Out of range out of mind.

Personally, I am keeping my eye on the carrier strike groups. I noticed that the navy "surged" one of them into deployment this week. I hope it is aimed at Iran and not North Korea.

[Son Deureo!]

If you live in Seoul, this does not really change anything for you. North Korea has had enough conventional artillery and rockets pointed at Seoul to flatten it for decades. When and if the North attacks, do you really care if you get blown to bits by a nuke instead of an artillery shell?

So just stop worrying, and learn to love the bomb.

[Roch]

[Roch]

[Roch]

[Roch]

[soviet_man]

My view is that there are basically five possible scenarios.

The first and most obvious, is that nothing will happen at all.

As for the other four:

LAND-BASED NUCLEAR TEST:
The possibility of a land-based nuclear test remains low. If a land-based nuclear test did occur, it would be held in the mountainous far northern region of the DPRK (near the Russian border) and not anywhere near the populated southern ROK border. So there would be little reason to assume that there would be any physical impact on the ROK.

OCEAN-BASED NUCLEAR TEST:
Theoretically such a test could be carried out entirely within DPRK territorial waters and not impact any other soverign state. However whilst I would rate the prospect of underwater nuclear testing as being *higher* than land-based testing, it is still low in terms of probability of happening.

HIGH-ALTITUTE NUCLEAR TEST:
Aerial nuclear testing in the DPRK is a possibility (in so far as the DPRK does currently have Soviet-built aircraft capable of performing such a task) however I'd rate the possibility of it happening as being also low.

UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR TEST:
By far the most likely form of nuclear test, if it were to happen at all - would be underground. There is sufficient evidence to assume that the materials needed for such a test, do currently exist in operational condition in the DPRK. However it would be wrong to assume that such a test would pose any particular threat to any other country.

[Ya-ta Boy]

I think you've been mainlining borscht again. Not a healthy habit.


Obviously the test itself would probably not be a threat. The threat comes when KJI posts a bargain sale on operational nukes on the internet to anyone with a billion dollars.