|
Korean Job Discussion Forums "The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
cerulean808

Joined: 14 Mar 2006 Location: Seoul
|
Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:43 pm Post subject: Will North Korea detonate another one? |
|
|
These guys seem to think so in an interesting analysis ( they use words like radionuclide and xenon too! ):
Quote: |
...we conclude that the DPRK test was more a failure than a success in physical terms defined with respect to a usable nuclear device configured as a warhead. However, it was also a technical success in four possible respects. The first and most important is that nuclear criticality was achieved. The DPRK has likely been designing nuclear explosives of various scales for many years. The DPRK scientists and engineers working on the test program will have learned a great deal from this first exercise, and will use this knowledge to improve their design for a second test. Achieving any level of nuclear explosion is a significant technical achievement and a pre-detonated critical mass is simply one event along a spectrum of possible outcomes, all of which offer substantial learning opportunities and a basis for on-going design work.
The second is that the DPRK may be confident that it can explode larger nuclear weapons and decided to tackle small warheads at the start of its test program in order to increase the speed with which it has a deployable long-range weapon on a missile or other delivery system. This is more challenging technically and this first test would assist them in this objective even if it did not yield the desired explosive power.
The third is that the DPRK may not have much plutonium due to difficulties with operating their reactors in the last two decades and with separating it from the spent fuel, and was economizing on their use of this scarce resource.
The fourth is that the DPRK may have been trying to minimize the risk of radioactive emissions and the political reaction to its test by keeping the test very small. A combination of these four and other factors may also be at play.
Nonetheless, the fact is that the DPRK is now a self-declared nuclear weapon state, but not an actual or demonstrated nuclear weapons state. This is not a domestic political problem for Kim Jong Il at this time. Indeed, on October 20, 2006, the leadership staged a �mass rally� in central Pyongyang to "welcome the historical successful nuclear test� and, as one gigantic placard stated, to� ardently congratulate the scientists, technicians, and workers who succeeded in a nuclear test.�
But for the reasons outlined above, the other nuclear weapons states know the true state of affairs. Until the test, it was possible for the DPRK to employ the �Israeli model� of nuclear opacity as the basis for nuclear threat, whatever the purpose of having such a threat capacity, and to keep everyone guessing.
Having tested and failed, the DPRK can no longer rely on opacity as the basis for having a credible nuclear force, at least sufficiently credible to threaten its adversaries with a nuclear explosion. The DPRK might believe that a half kilotonne �mininuke� still provides it with a measure of nuclear deterrence and compellence; but it could not rely on other nuclear weapons states to perceive it to have anything more than an unusable, unreliable and relatively small nuclear explosive device.
In short, the DPRK has now demonstrated that it does not yet have a nuclear capacity that enables it to threaten nuclear Armageddon against anyone but itself.
Therefore, although it could exploit the residual ambiguity that still shrouds its remaining capacity to deploy nuclear weapons and not test again, we judge it to be more likely that the DPRK will test again to assert the credibility of its nuclear arsenal and thereby, to truly join the ranks of the nuclear weapon states.
The exact timing of the next test will determined by how non-technical factors such as �managing China�s response� and �picking up food aid from South Korea for the next winter� interact with the DPRK leadership�s perception of the need to �fix� the demonstrated non-capability from the first test. (14) This latter factor is also political and will be primarily a function of the DPRK leadership�s view on how to (not) use nuclear threat to compel the United States to engage it on terms that it finds acceptable, whether bilaterally, at resumed six-party talks, or at some other venue and time.
Thus, via this last factor, the United States has continuing and unique ability to influence Pyongyang�s decision on when and if the DPRK conducts more nuclear tests.
|
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0689HayesKang.html |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
|
Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 4:16 am Post subject: |
|
|
North Korea just agreed to return to 6 party talks so I doubt it. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
cerulean808

Joined: 14 Mar 2006 Location: Seoul
|
Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 5:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Well it would be nice to think so. I think they're putting their toes in the water for a temperature reading to see if the first test is going to get them concessions from the US.
Quote: |
North Korea made no explicit promise not to conduct any more tests, Hill said, adding that a UN Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on Pyongyang remained in force. |
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10408618 |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
|
Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2006 4:55 am Post subject: |
|
|
cerulean808 wrote: |
Well it would be nice to think so. I think they're putting their toes in the water for a temperature reading to see if the first test is going to get them concessions from the US.
Quote: |
North Korea made no explicit promise not to conduct any more tests, Hill said, adding that a UN Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on Pyongyang remained in force. |
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10408618 |
..........
Am I the only one who reads the news??? NO there not going to test anymore. North Korea just returned to 6 party talks. I highly doubt there will be any more nuclear tests. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
|
Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2006 5:43 am Post subject: |
|
|
Quote: |
NO there not going to test anymore. North Korea just returned to 6 party talks. I highly doubt there will be any more nuclear tests. |
While I hope you are right, I can't see how the Norks returning to the talks would necessarily preclude them from walking out again and firing off another round of missiles and a nuke. Them having attended several previous rounds of these talks didn't stop them this time around. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
|
Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2006 3:08 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Quote: |
NO there not going to test anymore. North Korea just returned to 6 party talks. I highly doubt there will be any more nuclear tests. |
While I hope you are right, I can't see how the Norks returning to the talks would necessarily preclude them from walking out again and firing off another round of missiles and a nuke. Them having attended several previous rounds of these talks didn't stop them this time around. |
I hope they do test a second weapon, the world should not be talking to North Korea.
The evils that North Korea does to its own people are so evil that I consider the North Korean leadership to be monsters , unhuman even.
If we talk to them, all that will happen as so many times before,t he world will give them money and the North will calm down for some years while in secret using the money to expand its military and nuclear programs.
The concentration camps will go on , the slave labor will go on, and the death and torture as the cries of the North Korean people once again fall on empty ears of a world who wants to have less issues to deal with.
There should be no negotiation with North Korea. Only isolation until Kim falls, and if he wont, a military coalition need be formed to smash into North Korea, capture Pyongyang and deliver KJI and his cronies to the Hague. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
|
Posted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 5:27 am Post subject: |
|
|
 |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
|
Posted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 5:28 am Post subject: |
|
|
 |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
|
Posted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 11:08 am Post subject: |
|
|
Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
 |
Blank post??? |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
cerulean808

Joined: 14 Mar 2006 Location: Seoul
|
Posted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 3:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
NAVC
Quote: |
I hope they do test a second weapon, the world should not be talking to North Korea. |
If human rights abuses are your justification for 'not talking to' a state then 'the world' wouldn't be talking to most of the world including the good old US of A.
You seem to miss the main point of the argument in the article. The assertion is Norht Korea hasn't gained nuclear power status yet, the first test demonstrates that to the nuclear club. North Korea knows this and will need to continue the program successfully to get a coveted membership in the club and secure the deterrent they need.
Quote: |
a military coalition need be formed to smash into North Korea, capture Pyongyang and deliver KJI and his cronies to the Hague. |
Right, just like Iraq. And that state had no navy, no airforce and of course no WMD plus 10 odd years of crippling sanctions. KJI does have WMD and can rain down hot death on Seoul and Tokyo faster than you can say 'we don't negotiate'. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
|
Posted: Fri Nov 03, 2006 7:31 pm Post subject: |
|
|
you cant compare the US and NK. NK is the worst rights violator on earth. you think we should let them suffer? millions died to stop hitlers holocaust. now the nk camps need stopped. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|