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Rumor: US out; China in
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 2:37 pm    Post subject: Rumor: US out; China in Reply with quote

This rumor is reported in a Chosun Ilbo editorial:

Quote:
A rumor is making the rounds of a deal between the U.S. and China that Washington will withdraw its forces from South Korea and put an end to its alliance with Seoul, and that Beijing, in return, will guarantee a nuclear-free North Korea by overthrowing the Kim Jong-il regime and establishing a pro-Beijing regime.


This is probably just an idea cooked up by some paranoid's fantasy, but it does have some merit. A lot of merit, actually. It would stabilize the region for starters. China's ego would be bolstered; the US would save billions every year. I don't know if Japan would feel threatened. That's the weakness as I see it.

The whole editorial can be read here: http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200611/200611240019.html
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Hollywoodaction



Joined: 02 Jul 2004

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"A rumor"...

The rest is not worth reading.
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The Lemon



Joined: 11 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, saw that on Marmot (as you did, too?).

Who knows if there's truth to the rumour.

It plays to deep-rooted Korean insecurity that the big powers are once again deciding Korea's fate without consulting Koreans, and it serves the Chosun's editorial bent by painting the current administration as incompetent at protecting the nation's interests.
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NAVFC



Joined: 10 May 2006

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 5:34 pm    Post subject: Re: Rumor: US out; China in Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
This rumor is reported in a Chosun Ilbo editorial:

Quote:
A rumor is making the rounds of a deal between the U.S. and China that Washington will withdraw its forces from South Korea and put an end to its alliance with Seoul, and that Beijing, in return, will guarantee a nuclear-free North Korea by overthrowing the Kim Jong-il regime and establishing a pro-Beijing regime.


This is probably just an idea cooked up by some paranoid's fantasy, but it does have some merit. A lot of merit, actually. It would stabilize the region for starters. China's ego would be bolstered; the US would save billions every year. I don't know if Japan would feel threatened. That's the weakness as I see it.

The whole editorial can be read here: http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200611/200611240019.html



Pure BS. Why would we want commy bastards to overthrow commy baastards just to make more..commy bastards?
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The Lemon



Joined: 11 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

However they arrange the borders and governments, if they could free the hundreds of thousands of political prisoners in the camps, get KJI and his henchmen to relocate to some riverfront condo in France (if not string them up and let them twist in the wind), introduce reality to the people and "normalize" the North to the extent that a train can run from Seoul to Hong Kong, that would be progress.
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NAVFC



Joined: 10 May 2006

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Lemon wrote:
However they arrange the borders and governments, if they could free the hundreds of thousands of political prisoners in the camps, get KJI and his henchmen to relocate to some riverfront condo in France (if not string them up and let them twist in the wind), introduce reality to the people and "normalize" the North to the extent that a train can run from Seoul to Hong Kong, that would be progress.


but China runs the very same type of prison camps in china... why do you think theyd help the NoKo prisoners?
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mateomiguel



Joined: 16 May 2005

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Lemon wrote:
and "normalize" the North to the extent that a train can run from Seoul to Hong Kong, that would be progress.


How about a train running from Seoul to Paris? Open up this island nation to the rest of Asia.
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EFLtrainer



Joined: 04 May 2005

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You folks should read more of my posts. Sometimes the real news is on page 13 of the news. China's Northeast Project which is a supposedly scientific archeological examination of the area that was once Korguyo, Parhae, and even part of Unified Shilla, has come to the conclusion that while Shilla and Paekjae were Korean Kingdoms, Korguyo and Parhae were actually Chinese. Their very recent publications (this summer) claim the history and land of North Korea down to the Han River valley. They are actively developing the area around Mt. Paekdu.

Now let's look at the U.S. For decades it has been, "What?!! Operational control of U.S. forces? Are you out of your freaking minds?!" Now it's, "You take it. I don't want it!" What gives?

Fact is, if China wants to do something about NK there is realistically nothing the US can do. NK is the "enemy", right? How do we protest China stepping in to "save" the poor enslaved masses? And with what military? And how do we risk a major war with China?

Make no mistake about it. This is not rumor. It is an entirely feasible situation. As soon as I saw those reports this summer, I knew Korea's real problem is China, not NK nor the US. Their freeedom/reunification rests in China's hands. The rumor portion is only in the realm of exactly what nature the silent handshakes/"understandings"/Taft-Katsura-esque agreements have taken and/or will take.

Some of the equation rests with exactly how NK melts down. Slowly, or suddenly. If slowly, there is a fair chance Korea can reunify, but only as a neutral state. A unified Korea won't be tolerated by China as a US extension. The resources of NK would be a boon for China. Depriving rival economy SK of them would be all the sweeter and guarantee Korea's return to vassal state status.

Now, a fast meltdown should see the Chinese troops in NK. Given China won't want to deal with a Koeran insurgency, a puppet gov't. would be quckly established and the bulk of the Chinese troops gone. "Advisors" would remain.

Given so many SK's really have no stomache for the mess of reunification, they'd be willing to go along with the charade of an "indpendent but stable" NK.
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Octavius Hite



Joined: 28 Jan 2004
Location: Househunting, looking for a new bunker from which to convert the world to homosexuality.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I will say this about it all, there is no way to predict what would happen if the government collapsed. We have no real access to popular opinion in NK so we don't know if they would start an insurgency or just go along with it, etc etc etc.

I think China is getting tired of all this, I was positive they had whacked KJI last year with that train explosion but I was wrong.

That said, I have always been a fan of the buy them off plan of my own thinking. The world should offer Krazy Kim and his clan a huge piece of property, $1 billion and immunity from prosecution anywhwere in the world. Then let SK and NK work it out from there.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
A rumor is making the rounds of a deal between the U.S. and China that Washington will withdraw its forces from South Korea and put an end to its alliance with Seoul, and that Beijing, in return, will guarantee a nuclear-free North Korea by overthrowing the Kim Jong-il regime and establishing a pro-Beijing regime.


Well, I'd say China is kind of getting the short end of the stick here. Think about it. All the US has to do is fly its troops home. But China has to overthrow a previously-allied regime, and then establish a new government in its place. They probably could ensure the collapse of the Kim Dynasty simply by cutting off aid for a few months, but then they'd likely have to send troops in to put their own lackeys in place. And those troops would probably incur the wrath of those sections of the North Korean army/population who are still loyal to KJI's xenophobic nationalism.

I am well aware of the Northeast Project, but I think the idea there is to establish China's claims over the peninsula, in the event of the North Korean regime collapsing, not to ensure that collapse. I think this editorial is just scare-mongering by the Ilbo. And I'm sorry, but citing mere "rumors" in a lead editorial is hardly the hallmark of credible journalism.
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Verser



Joined: 20 Nov 2006

PostPosted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought this article may be of some supplementary interest:

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200609/200609070022.html wrote:
Beijing Eyeing N.Korean Territory: Lawmaker

China is pursuing the so-called Northeast Project to co-opt Korean history with an eye on claiming North Korean territory when the regime there collapses, a senior lawmaker quoted a Chinese leader as saying. Former National Assembly speaker Kim Won-ki quoted the remarks in the Unification, Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee on Thursday, saying they were made in a frank meeting with the high-ranking Chinese official.

The Chinese leader also reportedly said Beijing finds the Kim Jong-il regime and the political situation in North Korea very unstable. In any emergency, the U.S and allied army would move to North Korea�s border with China and face the Chinese People's Liberation Army there, a situation Beijing would not tolerate, he said.
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Tiger Beer



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

North Korea: The NEXT Tibet.

Neither Seoul, Tokyo or Washington would allow that however..

I'm going with The Lemon on this one:
The Lemon wrote:
It plays to deep-rooted Korean insecurity that the big powers are once again deciding Korea's fate without consulting Koreans
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cbclark4



Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 7:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The real solution would be for the US to pull out completely.
China to topple Kim and Allow the south to pick up the pieces.
Maybe have a Chinese Invasion and then let South invade while China retreats.
China should then make friendly like with the New United ROK.

cbc
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Bulsajo



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I haven't read the articles referred to in these scenarios, but what does China get out of this? Right now they have a client state who both depends on them and scares the bejesus out of their competitors at both a regional and an international level- what's in it for them to change this status quo?
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cbclark4



Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WIIFM

A path to capitalism and world market domination.

cbc
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