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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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 Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:03 pm Post subject: Depletion, not just a myth. |
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Can YOU say "Depletion?" I knew you could! Countries large and small are already in oil production decline. This is not a tin hat issue, folks.
CIBC Economist: $100 Oil by End of '08
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Tuesday October 2, 4:29 pm ET
By Adam Schreck, AP Business Writer
Expert: Oil Prices Set to Hit $100 by End of '08, and Will Likely Stay at Triple-Digit Level
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices could top $100 a barrel by the end of next year and remain above that point for years to come, the chief economist of Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets said Tuesday.
Jeffrey Rubin said rising demand within oil-rich nations such as Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia will put pressure on global oil prices in the coming years...
"We're in a world of triple digit oil prices for the foreseeable future," Rubin said during a speech to investors here.
Rubin said oil exports from OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico will likely decline by about 3 million barrels per day over the next five years. The biggest drop, he expects, will come from Mexico, a key U.S. supplier.
"Of the 3 million barrels, we're probably talking about 2 million barrels are going to come directly out of U.S. supplies," he said.
Rubin expects Mexican oil imports to the U.S. will dry up by about 2012....
But replacing relatively easy-to-refine liquid crude with petroleum from oil sands is certain to increase costs...
Looking ahead, Rubin expects crude oil prices to average as much as $90 a barrel next year, rising to around $100 by the end of 2008.
..."Triple digit prices is not a spike," he said. "Triple digit oil prices is what is going to be required to maintain, let alone grow, world oil supplies." |
The US has been since 1970. Mexico went into decline recently, but at a massive rate. Year-on-year declines have ranged from 9% to 20% at the primary source of oil from Mexico, Cantarell. The Mexican government has said the oil may be gone in less than a decade. Russia? 1987. Iran? 1974. North Sea (Norway and England)? 2001 and 1999.
And so on. When you consider the dual effects of depletion (falling production/post-peak production) in many countries and increased demand (2%/year), you end up needing a 3 - 5% rise in oil production a year. Those are optimistic numbers, not a doomsday numbers.
FYI, new oil discoveries vs. production has been 1:2 (or is it 1:3?) for the last 20 years. That's deficit spending in a nutshell.
Oil Depletion Around the World - Interactive Atlas |
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OneWayTraffic
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't think many people doubt that depletion is an issue. But as was pointed out in the article you linked to, cheaper sources are progressively being replaced with more expensive ones. So it's not so much a case of whether you can fill your tank, but how often, with what and for how much. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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| $100 oil with no hope of relief in sight. Say, market conditions will provide alternative forms of energy without risk of another cheap oil glut. Huh. Oh but wait. We can't have nuclear because you're afraid of what's going to happen to people 20,000 years from now. *giggle* |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 4:12 pm Post subject: |
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| OneWayTraffic wrote: |
| I don't think many people doubt that depletion is an issue. |
Have you read this thread?
| OneWayTraffic wrote: |
| But as was pointed out in the article you linked to, cheaper sources are progressively being replaced with more expensive ones. So it's not so much a case of whether you can fill your tank, but how often, with what and for how much. |
Actually, if the price is too high, it is, by definition, a question of whether or not you can fill your tank. I think, though, you are saying the gas will be there. Sadly, that's also not true. If global depletion occurs, we have reduced availability and not everyone who needs it or wants it is going to get it. There are already shortages in various places for a variety of reasons. In some of those places it is simply being priced out of the market. In fact, North Dakota came very close to running out of gas this summer. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 4:46 pm Post subject: |
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| keane wrote: |
| mindlessmetoo wrote: |
| I like to misrepresent. And just talk out my butt. *giggle* |
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Oh EFL. Going to send me more toilet talk emails? |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:16 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| I can't get enough of keane. That poster just DOES IT for me, ya know? I don't know nothing about Peak Oil, but I love to flirt with keane... it's just sooo... ummmm.... yuuuummmmy! |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:19 am Post subject: |
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| keane wrote: |
| mindmetoo wrote: |
| I can't get enough of keane. That poster just DOES IT for me, ya know? I don't know nothing about Peak Oil, but I love to flirt with keane... it's just sooo... ummmm.... yuuuummmmy! |
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This is just getting bizarre. EFL, your latest missive (plus your previous) to me has been forwarded to the ops. I've asked you already not to private me. What ID will you come back as a third time? |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:32 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
Really! Don't ignore me! I can't take it! INEEED to insult! I need to.... follow! I NEEED you here! I don't want to talk about anything!! I don't want to HAVE to! I WANT MINDGAMES AND PUFFERY!
If you ignore me, whatever shall I do? I don't know how to post on topic... I can only bait and poke and kick at and attack... it is all I know of love... Please don't hate me.... love me. LOVE ME! |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:35 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| I've asked you already not to private me. |
The "PRIVATE." (Eeeww!)
| Quote: |
| The answer, as usual, was in the article. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:42 am Post subject: |
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| mindlessmetoo wrote: |
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:21 am Post subject: Reply with quote Report Post
Yep. Keane gets me hot and bothered.  |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Odd. Anyway, I hope EFL you're clear that I don't care to receive private messages from you. If you want to send me toilet talk and insults, you're free to do it here. I don't mind. I just don't want to waste my time having to delete your silly messages from my limited inbox. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:37 am Post subject: |
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| mindLESSmetoo wrote: |
I have nothing to say on topic, OK? I jsut want YOU. I NEED your attention. GIVE IT TO ME!!! DON'T IGNORE MEEEEE!
And next time, no toilet talk! I don't want any more of THIS:
| Quote: |
From: keane
To: mindmetoo
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 3:54 am
Subject: mindless Edit message
The answer, as usual, was in the article. |
So, I sicked the mods on you!!! NO MORE TOILET TALK! Give the nice clean porno stuff, dammit!
And, don't you get it? I need to obsess on you. YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO ANSWER!!! I'm gonna post the same answer in the peak oil threads over and over and over because I am obssessive compulsive... about YOU!
Why don't you understand me....? |
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