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Europe of 2057: A big future is seen in poll

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thepeel

Joined: 08 Aug 2004

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 5:08 am Post subject: Europe of 2057: A big future is seen in poll

Quote:

PARIS: The Europe of 2057 is a larger place, its borders stretched eastward to encompass Turkey and, probably, Russia. It is a greener place, where wind and sun power have supplanted fossil fuels. It has been the battleground for at least one new war. And the dominant language is English.

In overwhelming numbers, European respondents also believe that the euro is here to stay and will be the standard currency for Europe in 2057.

Perhaps the most startling reply concerns the possible inclusion of Russia in the EU, given that the issue is not even on the table today. While three former Soviet republics have joined the 27- member bloc and others , like Ukraine are seeking entry, Russia � after looking to Europe in the 1990s � has pulled back.

Yet among the Europeans polled, 50 percent of Italians, 49 percent of Spaniards, 34 percent of French and Germans, and 33 percent of Britons said they believed that the borders of the EU would encompass Russia � a country stretching from the Baltic to the Bering Sea, far to the east of China � by 2057.

By even larger numbers, respondents envisage the Europe of 2057 as encompassing Turkey. With the issue of Turkish membership a political hot potato in a Europe struggling to integrate the Muslims already within its borders, Italians believe most strongly that Turkey will join (58 percent), followed by respondents from Britain and Germany (46 percent), France (38 percent), and Spain (36 percent).

"It's fascinating because it reveals some deep assumptions people make." Many Europeans "say Europe shouldn't expand to include Turkey and Russia," he said, "but deep down they believe it will. It shows you how much enlargement really is the story of the European Union."

The British also stood out on the question of energy. All the other countries surveyed ranked wind and sun power as the most likely primary source of energy in 2057. But nuclear energy outperformed wind and solar power by 9 percentage points in Britain, 47 percent to 38 percent.

In sun-splashed Spain, a full 68 percent see wind and solar power as the dominant energy of the future. Even in France, where nuclear energy is the primary source of electricity today, wind and sun power (48 percent) trumped nuclear energy (46 percent).

With EU leaders "struggling to conceal the pessimism and introversion they have felt since the French and Dutch no votes" on the European constitution, said Mark Leonard, executive director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a new pan-European research organization, "this poll should cheer them up."

In even larger numbers, Europeans � and Americans � envisage the euro as Europe's standard currency in 2057. This view was shared by 93 percent of the Spanish, 89 percent in Italy and France, 83 percent in Germany, 76 percent in Britain, and 72 percent in the United States.

In Britain, however, a significant number � 19 percent � think that European countries that have already adopted the euro will return to local currencies like the French franc or the Deutsche mark.

The majority of Europeans do not see the EU evolving into a federal system led by a single president, like the United States. From 30 to 40 percent in the five European countries surveyed said they viewed this as probable, while 46 to 56 percent said they did not.

The most positive view of life emerged in Italy and Spain. In line with their cheerful Mediterranean image, they had a brighter vision of the future than their neighbors to the north. Asked whether the quality of life in their country in 2057 would be better, the same, or worse than today, 47 percent of Spaniards and 44 percent of Italians said it would improve, compared to 27 percent of the French, 26 percent of the British, and 22 percent of the Germans questioned. Americans were split on the issue, with 31 percent saying quality of life would improve and 34 percent saying the opposite; the rest said it would be unchanged or had no opinion.

On the question of war and peace, majorities in all countries said that they expected a new war to break out on European soil by 2057 or that they were uncertain. A third or fewer of the populations surveyed say they believe that a war involving Europe is unlikely to occur in the next 50 years.

Regarding religion, Christianity is viewed by all respondents as likely to remain dominant in Europe. Just over 50 percent of Germans, Italians and Spanish share this view, as do about one-third of Britons, French and Americans. But Islam came second in Germany, Britain, and, most strongly, France, where 22 percent said it was likely to be the most widely practiced religion in Europe in 2057.

Finally, in a response likely to ruffle feathers in Paris, Berlin, Madrid, and Rome, respondents overwhelmingly agreed that English would be the language most widely spoken in Europe 50 years from now. That view was shared by the French (71 percent), the Germans (73 percent), the Spanish (76 percent), the Italians (81 percent), and, of course, the British (83 percent).

French, German, Italian, Spanish, Arabic, and Russian were seen as likely to overtake English within 50 years by only tiny minorities. Even in France, where defending the language is a matter of state policy, French was seen to as likely to predominate by just 7 percent.

Thoughts?

gang ah jee

Joined: 14 Jan 2003
Location: city of paper

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 5:15 am Post subject:

Where's the Sharia?

thepeel

Joined: 08 Aug 2004

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 5:21 am Post subject:

Deported. The real sillness is in Russia being part of the EU. That ain't gonna happen. Nor is Turkey. I think your average Russian would rather join China (and the Siberians just might...)

happeningthang

Joined: 26 Apr 2003

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 8:41 am Post subject:

I can see that Russia would be a dead weight dragging other member states down if they were to join the EU, but if they can hark back to the glory days of commie nism when they were, at least, economically viable then there's no reason they wouldn't be included. They've got 50 years to get their sheet together. I think Turkey will be a member state in the near future, however. I thought that they had already joined in principle?

thepeel

Joined: 08 Aug 2004

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 8:46 am Post subject:

The Cyprus issue is proving a massive hurdle. The strong desire of European people to stop this will be the next problem.

mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 9:08 am Post subject:

The polls always say no, no, no, but what they really mean is yes, yes, yes:

Quote:

Even in the two pillars of the new Europe, Germany and France, less than
half the public supports the EU, with the percentages at 45 percent
and 49 percent, respectively. In Britain, just 29 percent of the public
believes EU membership is a good thing. Given this negative feeling
about the current EU, it's no surprise that the public doesn't want to
see it broadened to include such countries as Poland, Slovenia and
Estonia, to
name just a few of the candidates.

Eww, Poland, Slovenia and Estonia. That's from 2001. Let's go back to 1998:

Quote:

PRAGUE -- For the Czech Republic, with an economy
that was the envy of other East European countries and a stable,
confident government at the helm, joining the European Union used to
look like plain sailing.

But that was before the country was battered by the storms of 1997,
which sank the currency and the government within six months and
highlighted how much remained to be done to complete the Czechs'
post-Communist transformation.

"When you have got political and economic turbulence, of course it slows
you down. If you do not produce growth it is going to hurt you
somewhere," Pavel Telicka, deputy foreign minister and chief negotiator
in next week's EU accession talks, told Reuters.

Despite the wrenching changes of last year, more political turbulence
lies ahead. Prime Minister Josef Tosovksy, appointed after the fall of
former Premier Vaclav Klaus in November, agreed to lead a caretaker
Cabinet until an early general election expected in June.

However, as five East European states and Cyprus each prepare for
membership talks on March 31, Telicka sees no major obstacles to Czech
entry. "I would not see issues of a non-standard character which are
really obstacles, stumbling blocks which would complicate the
negotiations for months. The issues to be tackled by our side are quite
reasonable, quite feasible to be negotiated."

Asked when the Czechs could join the Union, Telicka said the year "2000
X," adding that 2002 or 2003 was an optimistic but realistic target.
This would allow longer for talks than when former European Free Trade
Association members Finland, Sweden and Austria joined in 1995.

"We can finish negotiations in my opinion in three years' time. That
will be three times longer than the EFTA countries which, of course,
were better prepared. But we are not starting now. Practically we
started years ago," Telicka said.

Salutary Lesson

Last year's severe economic downturn came as a salutary lesson to some
Czech leaders who had bragged that the Czech Republic already met more
of the Maastricht criteria on monetary union than some EU members.

With bulging demand-fueled trade and current account deficits, the own
came under heavy selling pressure and the central bank was forced to
float it in late May. The government pushed through two austerity
packages in as many months.

Economic output growth slid to 1.0 percent last year from 3.9 percent,
according to figures published on Monday.

Apple Row Sours Relations

But days before the talks, relations between Prague and the EU have been
surprisingly soured by a row over apples.

In January, the Czechs imposed a 24,000 metric ton annual import quota
on EU table apples, saying they threatened domestic producers. EU
ministers responded last week, agreeing to suspend preferential import
tariffs on Czech pork, poultry and fruit juice.

Ooh, the apple row. I remember that. No, actually I don't. Since we're talking about 50 years, anything is possible. There's no way Turkey won't be able to get in for a full 50 years.

ddeubel

Joined: 20 Jul 2005

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 2:33 pm Post subject:

Quote:

The real sillness is in Russia being part of the EU. That ain't gonna happen. Nor is Turkey. I think your average Russian would rather join China (and the Siberians just might...)

My time in Russia and friends and understanding would all stand against this statement. It is facile and if you do learn about Russia other than from the standard political texts, it will come across as VERY European. The ties, historical and present are IMMENSE -- this statement stands as flatly wrong. Culturally, historically, politically, even geographically (though not genetically) Russians stand as Europeans who have been out of the TV series due to amnesia for quite some while. Now they are catching up. Siberians might not be, but they would be a very very small sliver of Great Rus.

Good points about the Czech Rep. Lately, my Czech friends are pulling out their hair. Really tough to find jobs, especially for the young or older. Prices way above the means of normal Czechs. Seems the promise of a bright future which was happening even up to 2000, is dimming. I hold Klaus as culpable in a large way. Cronyism and he crushed the spirit of Czechs with his Capitalistic extremism (free market -- little govt, but still damn regulation. Very inoperable combination. ).

DD

jinju

Joined: 22 Jan 2006

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 4:24 pm Post subject:

Russia? Yes! ... just without the Russians, PLEASE.

jinju

Joined: 22 Jan 2006

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 4:26 pm Post subject:

ddeubel wrote:

The ties, historical and present are IMMENSE

Russian ties to Europe can be comared to human ties with tapeworms. Just because tapeworksm have ties to people doesnt make them human. Russians arent European.

SPINOZA

Joined: 10 Jun 2005
Location: $eoul

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 5:48 pm Post subject:

Quote:

In Britain, however, a significant number � 19 percent � think that European countries that have already adopted the euro will return to local currencies like the French franc or the Deutsche mark.

Wishful thinking?

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