Korean Job Discussion Forums

[RJjr]

I've been noticing a lot lately how reserve unit after reserve unit is getting sent to Iraq. I don't think it's a stretch of the imagination to think the US military will have to eventually have to start pulling troops from other parts of the globe or drafting people, especially in the event of a war with Iran.

So let's discuss the hypothetical situation of US forces totally leaving South Korea.

How would it affect tax rates and the economy in general? What other effects may it have? Will locals like foreigners better with no GIs running around fighting, raping, and hiring hookers, or will they loath is more for the local men having to spend more time in the military?

[Sine qua non]

I don't know.

But, if I take a guess, my general take on the situation is that the future in that situation would be unpredictable. I think that, at this time, it can't be known.

I think that if the U. S. pulls out due to something like a conflict with Iran, the main factor determining what will happen in this part of the world will be the reactions of other countries. And this only bring up questions.

For example, will Japan develop The Bomb? Will China take over Taiwan? Will Japan provoke the Norks? Or China? Or the South? Will the Russians, Chinese, and/or the Norks lean on the South to capitulate to a Chinese "way of seeing things"?

So, I guess my answer is: if the U. S. pulls out of Korea quickly, other countries will react to this situation. And these reactions would be likely to create big changes here.

[Ya-ta Boy]

My take on the question is this...

a. Economically, Korea is large enough and strong enough that the removal of US troops would not be all that noticeable.

b. Socially, I don't think the behavior of troops affects the rest of us very often. Even in '02, at the height of the anti-Americanism, few of us were directly affected. It was a tense time, but there were few overt incidents. The long-term effect of bad troop behavior is over-stated. It's usually an after-the-fact justification, rather than a cause.

c. In my years here, students and friends have always said they want the troops to leave 'sometime', but not NOW. I think, with the rise of China and the increasing distrust of China here, this attitude among Koreans is going to stay. If anything, South Koreans would feel betrayed and abandoned if the US pulled out entirely.

d. South Koreans don't feel threatened by the North. Even if the US troops were to pull out, the duration of military service is not likely to be increased.

e. The most likely scenario for the future is for the US to leave an air base or two if they pull out the ground troops. That's all that's needed to serve the defense needs of SK, and to stabilize NE Asia.

[Passions]

Less rapes, less muggings of taxi drivers, less drunken rampages, etc.

[lastat06513]

Politically, the situation can be dire in the long run....

Economically, the situation can be dire in the long run....

Socially, I would have to agree with many on this board that foreigners would be seen as a scarce commodity and we would be treated way better than while the US military was in Korea.

But as for the US leaving? highly unlikely....that is why they have reserves in the first place.

Not to mention the fact that General Sheldon signed a 50-year bilateral defense agreement way back in 1999.

For example, a support unit attached to the National Guard is in Germany, picking up the slack for the soldiers sent from Germany to Iraq.

As for soldiers being sent from Korea to Iraq? already done. The 1st BCT and elements of the 2nd BCT are already in Iraq and have been there since 2004. Several soldiers who were in the first rotation, who were from Korea, died from the bombs and ambushes that are already a common factor in the war there.

As for the draft, the subject has been silent, so I guess it is dead in congress....for now.

[wylies99]

The US Air Force ("...nothing can stop the US Air Force") is what's important, here. The NKoreans/Chinese fear the planes and, well, the missles. But we're not supposed to talk about the missles (shhhhhhhhh) .
Because of the technology involved, it doesn't take as many US soldiers (as even 10 years ago) to bring the firepower should uncle fruitcake up north decide to invade.

[mindmetoo]

No American troops would mean China would have more options if North Korea fell. China would quickly move into North Korea to cement its established role as the protector of North Korea. If they met South Korean troops moving north without American trip wire... errr advisers, China could definitely resort to a low leve military option/threats to keep South Koreans south of an arbitrary line.

I think South Koreans need to grok that American troops no long just protect South Korea, but they're also an important part of the equation of who will gain control over a North Korea in chaos.

(Ya-ta, your points are well thought out and bring clarity.)

[pkang0202]

Politically, socially it would be a disaster. Troops in Korea are a Catch-22. People hate them for being here, at the same time, Koreans would feel abandoned is their "ally" left them.

Japan would see a withdrawal of US support from Korea meaning the US does not consider SE Asia as being important and they will militarize and develop nukes.

The biggest winner would be China in that they can fill in the power vacuum left over if the US presence in this area weakens. However, consider the amount of active US military personnel around the world, and look at the number of troops in Iraq.

Also, the draft will never happen. ESPECIALLY with the way things are with politics in Washington DC. If Bush proposes a draft, you can expect the Republicans to lose every election for the next 20-30 years.

[Cerebroden]

why would bush propose a draft? he's got a year left, then its someone else's problem.
As of now, as someone said above, its not about S. Korea, it is about the strategic capability of having ground forces already in the area in case some other Asian nation decides to get power hungry. Hence the pull out to Humphreys. Koreans are upset about how we have lowered our troop levels, but the point is (as someone said above) we still maintain the same capability level based on technology. Honestly, Korea is a PENINSULA meaning not only can the airforce come over the pole (even if we did pull out) but the navy would have a fricken duck shoot with tomahawks.

And economy? well lets see...How many koreans are employed by U.S. posts? Just how much black marketing goes on out of the PX/Commissary? Yeah Itaewon is dying out anyway, but its going to hurt alot more when you have no GI's spending their payday cash in a single night.
IMHO?
Short term? Yeah it's gonna sting but long term > 5 years it won't be an issue.

[wylies99]

Some troops may leave, but the forces will remain. Koreans really want us here- they hate it, but they need us or else things would be VERY bad.

[jvalmer]

Serious talk of US troops pulling out has occured within the last 2 presidential terms. Before then, the governments in power were very pro-American and would try to hide any negative press about the US. If the GNP wins the next election, this issue might quiet down. But, who knows what the politicians will do and say in order to get more votes.

[wylies99]

If the US leaves, the alternatives are VERY bad.

[sadsac]

Ya Ta boy made some goods points, but I do disagree with the economic impact of the US forces leaving Korea. You have 25,000 plus individuals and their families spending money and an enormous military infrastructure spending money, plus employment for x number of citizens. I believe the economic impact would be horrendous for at least 3-5 years. Militarily, many soldiers would be happy to see the last of the ROK and it's prejudices. This is considered a hardship posting for US soldiers.

[mindmetoo]

[Cerebroden]