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Travelous Maximus
Joined: 15 Jan 2007
Location: Nueva Anglia
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 Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 6:39 am Post subject: The decline of native English teachers |
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| Seeing all these waves of native teachers coming to teach in Asia makes me wonder - how long will this last? How many people and how long does a country need to have its citizens learn English and pass it on? There are so many English teachers in Asia right now teaching so many people. Once those people learn English, some of them that have picked up the language well will go on to teach their own people and so on and so on. Once that happens, you'll have a situation like in continental Europe where native English teachers are not as sought out because there are local teachers who speak excellent English and are able to teach in their own country. Does anyone notice this trend? Is anyone else concerned? |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 6:48 am Post subject: Excess |
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| No. I'm not concerned just yet. There are around 8000 NS teachers in ROK, but over 20,000 vacancies. Let's see: that's 12,000 schools that miss out. Agreed, in 10 years time, the situation will be interesting. |
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okokok
Joined: 27 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 6:55 am Post subject: Re: The decline of native English teachers |
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| Travelous Maximus wrote: |
| Once those people learn English |
LMFAO !!!  |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 6:55 am Post subject: Re: The decline of native English teachers |
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| Travelous Maximus wrote: |
| Seeing all these waves of native teachers coming to teach in Asia makes me wonder - how long will this last? How many people and how long does a country need to have its citizens learn English and pass it on? There are so many English teachers in Asia right now teaching so many people. Once those people learn English, some of them that have picked up the language well will go on to teach their own people and so on and so on. Once that happens, you'll have a situation like in continental Europe where native English teachers are not as sought out because there are local teachers who speak excellent English and are able to teach in their own country. Does anyone notice this trend? Is anyone else concerned? |
And China is getting on the English bandwagon.
Lets see... 1.2 billion students... lets figure a demand of maybe a million teachers...
Now we get maybe 50,000 per year want to move to China....
Add 10,000 more needed in Korea
Add 20,000 more for Japan,
add 20,000 more for southeast Asia...
Nope... not worried... ESL will be a growth industry for at least the next 50 years.... |
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Bibbitybop
Joined: 22 Feb 2006
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 7:01 am Post subject: |
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Without research or sources, your concern is pointless, much like 90% of your posts.
You are questioning an industry you couldn't survive in. You are sitting around trying to get validation for your failure. |
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Travelous Maximus
Joined: 15 Jan 2007
Location: Nueva Anglia
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 7:03 am Post subject: |
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| Bibbitybop wrote: |
Without research or sources, your concern is pointless, much like 90% of your posts.
You are questioning an industry you couldn't survive in. You are sitting around trying to get validation for your failure. |
Please stay on topic. |
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iain77
Joined: 12 Apr 2004
Location: here, now
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 7:18 am Post subject: |
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| actually, broski, he is quite on topic. |
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jdog2050
Joined: 17 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 7:26 am Post subject: Re: The decline of native English teachers |
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| ttompatz wrote: |
| Travelous Maximus wrote: |
| Seeing all these waves of native teachers coming to teach in Asia makes me wonder - how long will this last? How many people and how long does a country need to have its citizens learn English and pass it on? There are so many English teachers in Asia right now teaching so many people. Once those people learn English, some of them that have picked up the language well will go on to teach their own people and so on and so on. Once that happens, you'll have a situation like in continental Europe where native English teachers are not as sought out because there are local teachers who speak excellent English and are able to teach in their own country. Does anyone notice this trend? Is anyone else concerned? |
And China is getting on the English bandwagon.
Lets see... 1.2 billion students... lets figure a demand of maybe a million teachers...
Now we get maybe 50,000 per year want to move to China....
Add 10,000 more needed in Korea
Add 20,000 more for Japan,
add 20,000 more for southeast Asia...
Nope... not worried... ESL will be a growth industry for at least the next 50 years.... |
Question is: do you *want* to teach in Mainland China. From what I've read and heard, the mainland seems to be like Korea 20 or 15 years ago--the wild west as far as teaching goes.
Vietnam is really picking up though. All we need is Laos to get off their asses so I can go over there and just smoke...ermmmm sit by pretty rivers and listen to the wind 
My only concern for the ESL market is the USA bottoming out. The Bush admin is really f'in us over back home, and if the housing/mortgage market bursts hard...we could be in for some problems as far as people seeing the *immediate* need to learn English. |
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jdog2050
Joined: 17 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 7:28 am Post subject: |
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| Bibbitybop wrote: |
Without research or sources, your concern is pointless, much like 90% of your posts.
You are questioning an industry you couldn't survive in. You are sitting around trying to get validation for your failure. |
Travelous...seriously, either take a s--- or get off the toilet. I don't know why you keep asking questions about Korea when you could just *come back*. Go to English spectrum or something and apply; I'm sure you could find someone who has an emergency need. |
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chronicpride
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 8:23 am Post subject: Re: The decline of native English teachers |
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| ttompatz wrote: |
Nope... not worried... ESL will be a growth industry for at least the next 50 years.... |
I figure roughly the same, but there will be big evolutions during that time that will change the face the industry. The thing that will ultimately put the brakes on the industry and how it pertains to us, or at least slow it down dramatically, will be from the development of technology and the advancement of brain-computer interfaces, not unlike the Matrix scenario. But that would risk bringing down the whole education structure of society (12 years of public school, universities, etc...), and powers that be will work to ensure that the technology will be developed to operate in tandem with the conventional educational structure. Until open-source bootleg versions disemminate throughout the net. Asians will be the early adopters, for sure. It's because of this scenario that I'm hesitant to say 50 years. I say 10-15 years in its current state, at least. By that time, AI programs like chatbots will be perfected and mainstream. Then who knows how long it will take for brain-computer interfaces to be usable enough to generate notable results.
Even then, there'll always be a demand for a live speaker in the flesh. But the demand that we see now will be curtailed.
| jdog2050 wrote: |
My only concern for the ESL market is the USA bottoming out. The Bush admin is really f'in us over back home, and if the housing/mortgage market bursts hard...we could be in for some problems as far as people seeing the *immediate* need to learn English. |
Err..what does the US economy have to do with the desire to learn the GLOBAL language? I really doubt that all the english-speakers in the world, plus the intl banking and medical industries and all their english-based terminology, plus the whole intl tourism industry, will all look at each other, shrug, and say, "well, the US economy has tanked big time. I suppose we should all pick up a different global language now." 
Last edited by chronicpride on Sat Apr 07, 2007 8:37 am; edited 1 time in total |
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jdog2050
Joined: 17 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 8:35 am Post subject: Re: The decline of native English teachers |
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| chronicpride wrote: |
| ttompatz wrote: |
Nope... not worried... ESL will be a growth industry for at least the next 50 years.... |
I figure roughly the same, but there will be big evolutions during that time that will change the face the industry. The thing that will ultimately put the brakes on the industry and how it pertains to us, or at least slow it down dramatically, will be from the development of technology and the advancement of brain-computer interfaces, not unlike the Matrix scenario. But that would risk bringing down the whole education structure of society (12 years of public school, universities, etc...), and powers that be will work to ensure that the technology will be developed to operate in tandem with the conventional educational structure. Until open-source bootleg versions disemminate throughout the net. Asians will be the early adopters, for sure. It's because of this scenario that I'm hesitant to say 50 years. I say 10-15 years in its current state, at least. By that time, AI programs like chatbots will be perfected and mainstream. Then who knows how long it will take for brain-computer interfaces to be usable enough to generate notable results.
Even then, there'll always be a demand for a live speaker in the flesh. But the demand that we see now will be curtailed.
| jdog2050 wrote: |
My only concern for the ESL market is the USA bottoming out. The Bush admin is really f'in us over back home, and if the housing/mortgage market bursts hard...we could be in for some problems as far as people seeing the *immediate* need to learn English. |
Err..what does the US economy have to do with the desire to learn the GLOBAL language? I really doubt that all the english-speakers in the world, plus the intl banking and medical and all their english-based terminology, plus the whole intl tourism industry, will all look at each other, shrug, and say, "well, the US economy has tanked big time. I suppose we should all pick up a different global language now." |
No no no...the *immediate* need to learn English. I really think that if America hit a huge pot hole--say depression sized, not only would there be a slackening in the "now now now" style of english learning (hagwon's, villages, camps), but the job market for American-style english as opposed to British, Aussie, Canadian, would reverse. English wouldn't cease being the global language...too many people know it and use it every day at this point.
Oh, and yeah, the speech chip breakthroughs have me scared shitless as I'm planning on going for a masters in ESL. The pieces for it are really coming together, aren't they. Better software, chips that work fully in tandem with braincells...that's a lot of investment for something that could potentially be obsolete in 20 years. Then again, take 15 to 20 years for them to come out, then 2 or 3 more years to be affordable...well, I'll be around 50 by then, and retired, so, the "singularity" shouldn't hit us too hard. |
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chronicpride
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 8:47 am Post subject: |
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I still don't get what America has to do with Korean's 'now, now' desire to learn the global language. As soon as a Korean steps out of their country and into the world of intl tourism, they are forced to speak English. When they go to Europe. When they go to Canada. Hell, even when they board any plane that is not Korean Air or Asiana.
A depression-esque US economy is not going to suddenly cause Koreans to lose interest in intl travel. And that's just one example of a motivating factor for them learning english. The fact that english is the preferred language in international trade, is another. Koreans even want to learn english to also communicate in a single business language with other Asians. China's eagerness to pick up English as their main language of intl trade will only reinforce Korea's eagerness to do the same. |
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lastat06513
Joined: 18 Mar 2003
Location: Sensus amo Caesar , etiamnunc victus amo uni plebian
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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ESL/EFL/TESOL are NOT on the decline in Korea....
Although you might not see as many jobs as before, but there are alot of work out there for those that want to work.
The visa process has become so stringent, and conditions at many schools have not improved, which forces many people to find teaching jobs on other visas (IE, C3 or airport entry stamps) which is alot more riskier but the payback is much higher. |
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jinju
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Travelous Maximus wrote: |
| Bibbitybop wrote: |
Without research or sources, your concern is pointless, much like 90% of your posts.
You are questioning an industry you couldn't survive in. You are sitting around trying to get validation for your failure. |
Please stay on topic. |
The topic is that you are an idiot with some of the most idiotic posts on this board. |
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chronicpride
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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| lastat06513 wrote: |
ESL/EFL/TESOL are NOT on the decline in Korea....
Although you might not see as many jobs as before, but there are alot of work out there for those that want to work. |
The job boards of ESLCafe and WnP are barometers of the vitality of the E2 and underground markets, respectively. Both are continuing to hit all-time highs for job posts. |
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