|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
JMO
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Location: Daegu
|
 Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:44 pm Post subject: Football Outsiders:QB evaluation |
 |
|
Football outsiders is one of my favorite sites on the internet and has really influenced the way I think about american football, a sport that has become one of my favorites over thelast few years.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php
Anyway a writer there called David Lewin developed a QB projection system. It only works for QBs drafted in the top 2 rounds(so as to discount systems QBs and guys who are just not physically good enough to play QB in the NFL). he figured out that the only two statistics that matter for projecting QBs to the NFL is games started and completion percentage. Once a guy is picked in the first two rounds this is all that matters. He has a specific formula which I of course so not know. Each year he does an analysis of that years QBs and he has also went back over past draft classes and it has correlated with which QBs have been busts. It also predicted Rivers' stellar year last year.
This analysyis debuted last year in the Pro Football Prospectus. You really need to chek that out to get an in depth look at it. He will be doing an update for this years draft class in this year's edition.
A guy on the message board over there reverse engineered his formula and came up with this.
| Quote: |
I took the liberty of reverse-engineering the article from PFP07 and using them on the stats of the new draftees.
I'm a little wary of posting this, since it's not really my own work and obviously FO has had problems with that recently.
But for those of you who are curious, it looks like the relationship between each of the two variables and age-adjusted DPAR is linear. I used the projections in PFP to interpolate projections for the new draftees. Obviously, you should all buy PFP07, because it seems like David has done some new work on this stuff, and I'm sure it will be interesting. Also, these numbers aren't exact. They're probably off by a couple hundredths of a point, since I don't have the exact formula.
That said:
Kevin Kolb: 6.78 (Second highest projection ever behind Philip Rivers. Roughly equivalent Carson Palmer-level play)
John Beck: 5.26 (Ginn might turn out to be a bust, but it seems like the Fins knew what they were doing passing on Quinn.)
Brady Quinn: 4.89 (Nearly the same projection as McNabb. He should be a very good but not great QB)
Drew Stanton: 4.52 (Slightly below Eli Manning)
JaMarcus Russell: 3.59 (A little bit better than Patrick Ramsey, but playing for the abysmal Raiders offense might put him into mega-bust territory.)
I think this year will really test the system, because nobody would have ranked the QBs like this before the draft. The projections for Quinn and Russell are believable, but I can't imagine the second round being as successful as it is projected to be. |
So any football fans out there, what do you think of the results? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
MANDRL
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Location: South Korea
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Predicting a QBs success in the NFL is like picking all of the winning lottery numbers. Some guys have 'it' and some don't. The leap from college to the NFL is beyond difficult on so many levels, few college guys can actually do it. I mean look at the NFL, how many great QBs are there and how many 'decent' QBs are there. While formulas are fun, especially being a huge football nut, because it gives you something to think about until the season starts. But in reality, you have a better chance at picking a good, honest hagwan than picking what college guys will be able to hack it, let alone be good or great as a QB in the NFL. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SarcasmKills
Joined: 07 Apr 2003
Location: Seoul
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Stanton was doomed the minute the Lions drafted him.
If ANY other team would've drafted him , he would've been a star.
Now he's ruined. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
JMO
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Location: Daegu
|
| Posted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:27 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| MANDRL wrote: |
| Predicting a QBs success in the NFL is like picking all of the winning lottery numbers. Some guys have 'it' and some don't. The leap from college to the NFL is beyond difficult on so many levels, few college guys can actually do it. I mean look at the NFL, how many great QBs are there and how many 'decent' QBs are there. While formulas are fun, especially being a huge football nut, because it gives you something to think about until the season starts. But in reality, you have a better chance at picking a good, honest hagwan than picking what college guys will be able to hack it, let alone be good or great as a QB in the NFL. |
Well I'll give this guy a chance. So far his formula seems to work well with the past data and it did succeefully say Philip Rivers would be good. It gave Philip Rivers a very high projection so I guess he will be the test.
There are only a few great QBs in the league so to pick a decent guy is a great draft pick. It is all relative really. We'll see in a few years how accurate it is.
It makes a refreshing change from idiotic articles telling us about how the QB 'just wins', 'chokes in big games', 'found ways to make his team win' , 'has swagger' and other highly irrelevant stuff. Its that kind of lazy journalism that sent me toward football outsiders. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
