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Food prices up 50% within five years?
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keane



Joined: 09 Jul 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:46 am    Post subject: Food prices up 50% within five years? Reply with quote

Quote:
The price of milk has risen 20 per cent in the past year, says Bill Barbour, and he should know. He's the investment manager at the DWS Global Agribusiness Fund, a $1.6 billion fund from Deutsche Bank that was formed last year to capitalise on what he calls "Ag-flation" � the sudden and irreversible upward momentum in food prices which is going to change the world as we know it.

Australian milk and dairy prices are bounding ahead and wheat prices are at an all-time high.

In China pork prices are up 90 per cent, in Britain food prices are growing at their fastest in a decade, in Mexico a sudden lift in the cost of flour for tortillas caused a riot a few months ago.


The environment, war, oil, food. These things are not unrelated. Read on.
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sojourner1



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug

PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounds like it is nothing more than new push to capitalize from commodities through charging higher prices just as oil companies have been doing in the past 4 years. You know oil company profits are at record highs and diary companies are not too far behind in being the most profitable in history. Company chiefs and analysts in most sectors are exploring new ways to instill the idea that a product or commodity is becoming rarer to justify raising prices, when in fact, it is just a big push to make more money while ultimately producing less than their capacity further decreasing costs and increasing profits. Korea is well known for charging artificially high prices to support the wealthy family owned suppliers and shareholders to get as rich as they and as fast as possible. Western countries are taking strong note of aggressive Asian business ethics and practices, because Asians have it in them to go to all lengths in turning as much profit as possible. (not good for the majority) This is why American CEO's have a relatively newfound love for Asia, particularly China besides the fact you get find subservient women to manufacture export products for a little bit of nothing. To put it into perspective, I am paying $8 for a gallon of skim milk here and $6 for a gallon of regular milk and ground Korean beef can easily top $25/pound and $20 is not uncommon. I am very sure, those of you that were in Korea 4 or more years ago, were paying half of that we are today for food. With GDP and wages being only about half of that in the states, things ought to be quite cheap here. There is no way commodities can rightfully command these outrageous prices unless US $60,000 to $100,000 was common middle class level of pay with blue collar jobs paying $15/hour minimum wage. That would set teachers at $60,000 a year. Too bad it just isn't so.

You can bet that in the coming years, things are going to get more difficult from the consumer perspective in most all countries of the world while it gets easier for the rich investors and executives to make the most money anyone ever has in the history of the world, even if you adjust amounts for inflation over the years. It's an exciting time for those in the finance/executive career areas which are really only accessible by inheritance or nepotism or by staying single and saving up your money to hopefully be a 60 year old dude with his own office and fat accounts. Personally I need the $60,000 to $100,000 today as it's quickly becoming a very expensive time in history to live in and only will continue. Incomes are not rising in relative to commodities inflation. I am sure this is not the first time in history this economic scenario played itself out as 1700's Europe and early 20th century was like this in many ways. In case you wonder how the old people in western countries did so well as to come out on top with a golden retirement, they saw times of cheap food, housing costs, and gas relative to their incomes which is how they had it made in the shade as to actually see home ownership a reality for them and their families, something many of us younger adults will never realize due to tougher economic dynamics coming into play. This is not our parents and grand parents world anymore, that's for sure.
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd strongly suggest that you familiarize yourself with the functionings of commodity markets. Also, you might want to explore the protectionism/price relationship as it relates to your Korean beef/milk story.

Smaller paragraphs would help too.
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flummuxt



Joined: 15 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree that food prices are going to go up, but I don't know if they will go up that much. The reasons are not that complicated.

Newly affluent people in China have suddenly decided they like to eat rather than going hungry. And they especially like to feed their children, milk in particular. That's a lot of milk.

This is bound to increase the worldwide price of milk, and other foods. Already, I have had trouble finding whole powdered milk.

So what is George Bush doing in the U.S.? He's got a program to convert farm land to grow fuel for cars. And the crop, corn, soaks up petrochemicals, like natural gas, to make the fertilizer that is used to grow the corn. So there will be increased demand for alternatives to gasoline, pushing up their prices. Plus price increases for corn, otherwise fed to cows (which produce milk) or made into other food products, and increased prices for farm land.

Add this up, and the price of food is bound to increase. When the price of food goes up, it tends to lead to inflation in other sectors.

This is not so complicated.

But I am glad that our fearless president has an MBA from Harvard so he can understand these issues if he wants to. Too bad he doesn't.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flummuxt wrote:
So what is George Bush doing in the U.S.? He's got a program to convert farm land to grow fuel for cars. And the crop, corn, soaks up petrochemicals, like natural gas, to make the fertilizer that is used to grow the corn. So there will be increased demand for alternatives to gasoline, pushing up their prices. Plus increased demand for corn, otherwise fed to cows (which produce milk) or made into other food products, and increased prices for farm land.


Corn is a bad source of bio fuel. It's only worth growing because it is highly, highly subsidized by the government. Biofuel, as in the Brazilian model, is best produced from a waste byproduct.

Some foods have gone up, like milk. Some have gone down like salmon and shrimp. South America supplies huge amounts of farmed fish for walmart. Salmon goes for like $5 a lbs at walmart or something.

Let me suggest that rising food prices will be offset by Africans and South/Central Americans getting into the game. The third world might not be able to build cars but they can certainly provide land and labor for factory farms.
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Leavingkorea



Joined: 27 Apr 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Holy Shit people it's PEAK FOOD!!!! Laughing
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flummuxt



Joined: 15 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quoth Leavingkorea:

Quote:
Holy *beep* people it's PEAK FOOD!!!!


Hmmm. Wouldn't a better way to say this be:

Holy Batman, people it's PEAK POPULATION!!!!

Now, isn't that more effective at grabbing people's attention?

Problem solved.

Except for one tiny detail.

There are two many freakkin people on this planet, and there are more every second!!!!!!

I know all about Malthusian economics, and so far we have found ways to support the additional population. But I think we are reaching the limits, for energy, food, and more important, environment and quality of life. Inflation in the price of energy and food are two possible consequences of this, a way of rationing something in short supply, relative to demand.

Aren't 6 billion people enough, already?
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate
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nautilus



Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!

PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flummuxt wrote:

Aren't 6 billion people enough, already?


Unfortunately most people still think having babies is the only way to validate their existence. How original.

regarding food prices- climate change and the mismanagement of water resources is definitely affecting agriculture. But humans have been wilfully fu*king up the environment for a long time and they're not going to stop suddenly now.
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Ilsanman



Joined: 15 Aug 2003
Location: Bucheon, Korea

PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

7 billion people is not good for the world, but aging populations are not good for societies either.

nautilus wrote:
flummuxt wrote:

Aren't 6 billion people enough, already?


Unfortunately most people still think having babies is the only way to validate their existence. How original.

regarding food prices- climate change and the mismanagement of water resources is definitely affecting agriculture. But humans have been wilfully fu*king up the environment for a long time and they're not going to stop suddenly now.
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keane



Joined: 09 Jul 2007

PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Leavingkorea wrote:
Holy *beep* people it's PEAK FOOD!!!! Laughing


You've already run from one thread, friend. It won't help you to be run off from another.

Wink

(Just kidding. Hope you'll get over yourself and return for some more discussion. It was going well there for a while.)
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

7 billion people isn't a bad thing. 4 billion of those people in Asia and Africa and only 30 million of them in all of Canada is not necessarily a good thing. If people were more equitably distributed the world could easily support more.
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idonojacs



Joined: 07 Jun 2007

PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thus sayeth mindmetoo

Quote:
7 billion people isn't a bad thing. 4 billion of those people in Asia and Africa and only 30 million of them in all of Canada is not necessarily a good thing. If people were more equitably distributed the world could easily support more.


There are 5.4 million square miles sitting wasted in Antarctica, with no more than 4,000 people there during the height of the tourist season. Sure seems like an awful waste of space to me.
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Ilsanman



Joined: 15 Aug 2003
Location: Bucheon, Korea

PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is it liveable? The few people there need to use a lot of resources just to be able to live. Maybe it's best left uninhabited.

idonojacs wrote:
Thus sayeth mindmetoo

Quote:
7 billion people isn't a bad thing. 4 billion of those people in Asia and Africa and only 30 million of them in all of Canada is not necessarily a good thing. If people were more equitably distributed the world could easily support more.


There are 5.4 million square miles sitting wasted in Antarctica, with no more than 4,000 people there during the height of the tourist season. Sure seems like an awful waste of space to me.
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thepeel



Joined: 08 Aug 2004

PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 3:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that the millions and millions of scientists and engineers that India and China will be pumping out ever year over the next decades will help add to the massive pool of scientific knowledge and significantly help us move towards scientific solutions for our problems. Every new scientist puts us closer to a solution for problem "x".

I'm really not worried about it. Especially after having lived in Nowon (with very high population density and in Singapore with VERY high population density, I think that humans can make large numbers work if the right planning is done.
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