Korean Job Discussion Forums

[lastat06513]

The US has a binding treaty with Taiwan that states that if the island ever came under attack from China, the US would intervene. At the same time, a similar treaty between China and North Korea states that if one of the 2 parties ever came under attack or ever start conducting military operations, the other party in the treaty is to assist in the operation (namely the reunification of Korea under communism).
Now, both these treaties are one of the reasons the status quo is kept in Northeast Asia as no one wants to irritate and provoke the other into doing irrational actions that might compromise regional stability.
However, this balance is being slightly tipped with the North Korean nuclear program. Now, the US don't want the north to have any kind of miltary nuclear capabilities, but South Korea and China don't want the US to do anything about it since it can tip the scale futher to the point that the whole region can be engulfed in a huge regional conflict.
And recently, the Taiwanese president is trying to call for a referendum on the country's possible membership into the UN, which is not only being condemned by China, but also by the Bush administration, as it would tip the scale in the region further more.

Now, my question;
As a way to compromise with the Chinese to help with the North's nuclear issue, do you think the US might sacrifice its defense treaty with Taiwan? By that, I mean, can you see China helping out the US dealing with North Korea and in return, the US would turn a blind eye to possibly massive assult on Taiwan?

History is fraught with stories like this and I can honestly see it happening as "a way to bring peace and stability to Northeast Asia"; one nation being sacrificed to save another...hey! this is what happened with Korea-

Korea was sacrificed to the Japanese in 1905-1910 to save Europe's fledgling colonies in the region, including the US possession of the Philippines. The Japanese government was sending arms to the insurgent groups (most notably the insurrection in the Philippines in 1900) that, if in control, would be influenced by Japan.

With this as the historical context for my question, do you see that happening?

[cbclark4]

First off if the US withdrew it's treaty with Taiwan.

The invasion by China would be far from massive, it may even be peaceful.

I don't see why a Hong Kong type solution couldn't be found.

I also don't see why in the present Worldwide economic condition, China wouldn't see that a re-united Korea under the Southern regime would not be best for both China and NK. North Korea is truly just baggage on the armpit of China.

Now back to Taiwan. If China were really interested in making things right, giving Taiwan a seat at the UN would make sense. The second part would be to gain influence with Taiwan to treat Taiwan as a legitimate trading partner.

China is on the verge of dominating the world economy, they should look to the Hong Kong model and move forward adapt and adopt similar models and concessions, normalize as much as possible.

The US should take the same advice on Cuba.

EDITED: to run spell ceck.

[Pligganease]

[Jeju Rocks]

I am still working on my morning coffee, so my memory may be foggy.

I recall reading somewhere that China regrets its actions in the Korean War because it may have cost them Taiwan. Meaning that once China entered the war, the US sent its navy to Taiwan to counter any threat from China. Had they not of entered the Korean war, the problem between China and Taiwan may have been solved decades ago.

Has anyone else read anything on this or am I just making it up?

[The_Conservative]

[cbclark4]

Part of the agreement would be a removing US forces.

[The_Conservative]

[cbclark4]

The US would be fools not to take this deal. Taiwan gets a seat at the UN, the US pulls out of SK. SK/NK unite under the SK regime. It's a complete win/win. You may even deal for some additional Territory north of NK.

30,000 more US troops free to pursue AQ et al across the Mideast.

China gets another enterprise zone moving the whole nation towards the open market system and prosperity.

Your still think old world cold war politics against this scenario. This scenario holds for a closer relationship between these two super powers.

[The_Conservative]

[contrarian]

The US should simply recognize Taiwan as an independant nation. Then sell them nukes in case the PRC gets uppity.

The PRC, is chapter 2 of the clash of civilizations. They are the enemy.

[cbclark4]

Walmart is Chinas new opium. You can seat Taiwan at the UN table recognize them seperately from China and still allow vwry tight economic ties, like banks and currency, maybe Hong Kongs currency.

I think you over estimate the "hate" factor of the Taiwanese people, it is not so apparent in the youger generations.

Like I said drop the cold war blinders for a minute and take a fresh look.

Most of this is inevitable with or without US cooperation.

Unification of Korea will still take time after the diplomatic realities sink in. The economic difference will take some time to settle. I would expect to see some kind of attempt to prevent any dislocation, maybe some stepped investment going North some obvious exploitation issues and then limited migration of Southerners to the North to follow the investments. The migration from the North will be throttled somewhat to ease the transitions.

[nautilus]

They should sell out Korea and protect Taiwan. Taiwan has been a staunch ally and lover of democracy.

By contrast, korea has shown massive anti americanism and even admitted they'd side with North korea against the US in time of war.

[ajgeddes]

The whole concept here is stupid. Why would you want to get rid of Taiwan? Like nautilus says, they are more pro-western and have a more open economy. Not to mention they don't cause any problems. Who the fukc cares about Korean reunification. Right now, North Koreans are pretty much useless in a world economy.

[as-ian]

[contrarian]

The US is big enough, powerful enough and well enough armed to hang on to both Taiwan and SK. For that matter in NK collapsed the US would be first in with massive aid. The Chinese would have a hissy fit over the whole idea.

After unification Korea could in a few years become a massive economic power.

Yea, there are a few anti American students and young people with no brains and less sense. As a matter of fact there is a lot of difference between Seoul / Jolla and the South east, east and center which are very conservative and pro American.