Dave's ESL Cafe's Student Discussion Forums

[eclipse]

Yep, this one is from the Russian energy minister.
All eyes turn to Saudi Arabia to ramp up it's oil even more, but it just is not physically possible.

http://eclipsenow.org/facts/governments.html

Great Depression by 2011?
_________________
2008 � World oil production begins to decline,
stockmarkets crash, airlines bankrupt, and the
Greater Depression begins

www.eclipsenow.org � Welcome to the end of the oil age!

[pugachevV]

Hydrogen as fuel is answer, but there are too many vested interests in the oil patch.

[eclipse]

I personally think Electric Vehicles are better. Hydrogen is a bit of a myth because you have to manufacture it to get it. There's no such thing as a "hydrogen mine". It just cannot be scaled up quicky enough.

Basically, you'd have to double your electricity power stations to have enough power to split the water to make the hydrogen... and that isn't going to happen overnight. Hydrogen is very dangerous, it's difficult to store, and it is difficult to fill your car. At extremely cool temperatures, a hydrogen nozzel would freeze your hand off... it needs to be robotically automated. Human's can't touch it!

But the main problem is getting enough Hydrogen. It just is not going to happen, not in time to prevent the "Greater Depression" as the airlines go bankrupt. There's no such thing as a hydrogen 747! Just the airlines going bankrupt will throw us into all sorts of financial chaos as the tourism industry goes down!

http://eclipsenow.org/facts/service-checklist.html


The SERVICE test for alternatives

This is a basic checklist to use in evaluating alternative energy. If a renewable energy fails just one of the tests below, it is not going to replace oil. The more tests it fails, the less it can help mitigate peak oil. The experts are telling us that no alternative energy matches all the tests below, so our lifestyles must change. It is that simple!
�Alternatives are not going to SERVICE our current energy needs after cheap oil.�

S.E.R.V.I.C.E.

Sustainability

Energy payback

Rare materials

Volumes

Implementing Infrastructure

Cheap

Even supply

Sustainability � is it sustainable for the long term?
Bio-diesel depletes the soil unless we put some NPK back (which is also difficult without accruing an energy loss).
Gas conversions to cars will just use up the LPG faster.
A "hydrogen economy" based on natural gas will just bring "peak gas" forward that much quicker, etc.

Energy Payback � the EPR. Do you get more energy out of a device that went into making it in the first place? Have you counted all the energy costs that go into the new energy infrastructure?

Tar sands and shale oil are incredibly energy expensive means of producing fuels. (And would again contribute to the global warming crisis.)

Rare materials essential to some renewable schemes would limit the worldwide deployment of that scheme.
EG: Electric Vehicles (EV�s) hold great promise, but what are the world�s current Lithium reserves and how many generations before we experienced �peak Lithium?�
EG: Fuel cells use plantinum, and after just a few years of a fuel cell transport system we would reach peak platinum.

Volumes � are most often too low.
EG: All Australian wheat into ethanol = 9% of liquid fuels and no bread! This alarming statistic takes into account the fact that we grow enough wheat for roughly 100 million people (we only consume 20% of our wheat for our 20 million Australians.) This statistic comes from Bruce Robinson of the STC.

EG: Biodiesel... even if we managed to grow biodiesel crops without modern fertilizers and pesticides (through biofarming methods such as "crop and cow" rotation) there is just not enough arable land to grow the quantities we need. We would run out of land for food!

Some potential energy volumes are vast (just 40 km by 40 km of solar PV is all Australia's energy needs) but we have left it too little too late. In other words, our current volumes of energy from these sources are far too low... below 1% of worldwide electricity supply.

Even if there is a vast potential energy source such as solar, the following questions pretty much prevent it running what we are currently running.

Implementing the Infrastructure � is the fuel compatible with the current infrastructure? What are the issues in implementing the new fuel at filling stations? Is it easy to transport? Can it be stored easily? How energy dense is the fuel � and will you burn 90% of the fuel just to transport it to the filling station? How long will it take to implement? What other time factors are involved in converting filling stations over?

Cheap � What is this alternative going to cost society? We are not running out of oil, we are running out of cheap oil and it is throwing us into a crisis.The costs for a solar to hydrogen fuel system would currently bankrupt any nation � we may as well use the original solar electricity to charge EV�s rather than bother wasting energy making Hydrogen. What the alternative costs is extremely important, and is the basis of the peak oil crisis.

Even supply of energy � Is the energy supply constant?

The sun doesn�t shine at night, and the wind does not blow for long periods. We need a system of energy that is reliable, or the power grids start to fail. How do we adapt to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources? What backup energy mechanisms are there? How expensive is this, and how do we adapt society to live in the new realities of more expensive energy?

�������������������������
There is also extra information to download on the hydrogen economy from this source...
http://eclipsenow.org/solutions/refuel.html

We might use hydrogen for some things... and I love renewable energy... but the main message to take home from all this is that renewable energy is not going to run "business as usual". Everything is going to change. Otherwise, why is Roscoe Bartlett constantly quoting Matt Savinar of www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, "Dear Reader, civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon"? What possible reason could Roscoe Bartlett, a science teacher turned Republican Senator, have to risk his career sounding like a looney?
_________________
2008 � World oil production begins to decline,
stockmarkets crash, airlines bankrupt, and the
Greater Depression begins

www.eclipsenow.org � Welcome to the end of the oil age!

[asterix]

So, it turns out that the Amish, who still use horses, and other renewable sources of energy, were right all along.
Giddy up!.

[eclipse]

Absolutely Asterix
Yeah... what's that joke about the farmer with a "solar powered tractor?" It's the donkey!

The Amish are better adjusted to peak oil than us not just in their transport... its the fact that they don't use industrial agriculture,
don't use petro-chemical fertilizers,
have a better ratio of people to arable productive land,
and don't use plastics.

Unfortunately, we have grown our populations so huge that without our tractors that are "fed from underground" via oil, we just might not be able to farm what we are currently farming with horses or oxen, simply because they are not fed from underground! They require acres of land each... and it becomes a question of land for beasts of burden to help run the farm, or land for people?

All I can see ahead are massive shake ups in the way we do things, and massive redistribution of employment. All the personel who worked in airlines & dependent tourism could easily end up moving to rural areas to help work the farms? Who knows? Our governments have egg on their faces for not dealing with this earlier. The Hirsch report basically says we should have started 20 years ago.
_________________
2008 � World oil production begins to decline,
stockmarkets crash, airlines bankrupt, and the
Greater Depression begins

www.eclipsenow.org � Welcome to the end of the oil age!