eclipse
Joined: 10 Oct 2005
Posts: 20
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 Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:06 pm Post subject: Peak oil forum in Australian Federal Senate |
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Hi all,
the good news is that governments are starting to talk about peak oil. The bad news is that it means it must be real, and must be close, and not just the product of my own imagination. 
This Senator is quite alarmed by some of the things she has obviously read about "peak oil". She refers to it by the other term, "The Big Rollover"... when we roll over from an increasing supply of cheap oil, to a dwindling supply of vastly, vastly more expensive oil, crashing the world economy, bankrupting the airlines, bankrupting farmers and the "Green Revolution" and basically threatening us with social and economic chaos worse than anything humanity has experienced in the last 200 years COMBINED!
This Senator hints at some of the "ingredients" in the peak oil poisoned soup. If you google "peak oil" you will see that the second most popular peak oil site starts off....
| Quote: |
| Dear Reader, civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. |
It's time to get serious about peak oil.
Otherwise millions, if not billions, are going to die.
Given that our current alternative technology cannot do what oil does for us in energy density, economic scale, and sheer volumes of oil, the ONLY solution I have come across is to radically change our modern way of life!
www.ecocitybuilders.org is the only answer! And I think it is could be an attractive lifestyle, if we handle it right.
Cheers,
eclipse
Fuel prices and oil supply
12th Oct 05
MATTERS OF PUBLIC INTEREST
Senator MILNE (Tasmania) (1.14 p.m.)�I too rise today to consider the politics of security but in a different context: the context of the politics of scarcity. I rise today to talk about the oil crisis which is currently besetting the world. We have heard a lot of things in the last few weeks since petrol prices have started to rise, and most of the initiatives that are being suggested are very short-term bandaid methods.
The Leader of the Opposition, Mr Beazley, has called on the government to increase tax deductibility for motor vehicle running costs, while petrol prices are so high, to help alleviate the cost to small business and to stop small business passing it on to the consumer. That is a laudable aim to protect consumers and to give some relief to small business.
Senator Fielding has called for a reduction in fuel excise, saying that it would, in his view, help the poor. As I will point out in a minute, the only people that it would help would be the rich. The point I want to make is that these are populist, short-term solutions and do not address the reality that Australia has to come to terms with the fact that we are no longer, ever, going to have plentiful cheap oil�never again.
As a nation we have to show some leadership in looking at how we respond to the fact that global oil supplies are declining at a time when the demand for oil is increasing. If we look at what is happening with India and China, the Australian economy is benefiting from the growth in those economies; and it is, of course, a response to that that is giving our minerals industry such a boost at this time.
The point that I want to make today is that what drives global insecurity and what drives war and conflict usually comes down to resource scarcity. It usually comes down to a fight over land, over water, over forests or fisheries, or over oil. The more scarce a resource becomes, the more tensions arise.
Already there is a recognition in the United States that there has to be a rapid transition to a new economy, or the alternative is that they take secure supplies of oil by force. Many of us would argue�and I include myself�that the war in Iraq was dressed up in all sorts of ways, but it was about nothing other than taking a supply of oil by force.
Government senators interjecting �
Senator MILNE � You might well laugh about this, but the point that I am making is that we are seeing a major decline in global oil supply, and we have already been through what people have called the great rollover, which is the point at which global demand for oil has outstripped supply. At the point of the rollover and thereafter, oil prices will never come down. If we listen to what people are saying about this around the world, the ramifications for our economy are huge. Already today we have heard the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens, say:
The issue before us in the next year or two is whether the world and Australian economies can adapt to higher energy and resource prices without a significant bout of inflation �
We would, of course, include in that an increase in interest rates. We know that the Prime Minister went to the last election on the interest rate issue.
The fact is that neither the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition nor anybody else is going to be able to do anything about the fact that global oil production is in decline at a time when demand is rising.
Instead of going around calling for short-term and bandaid measures for the Australian economy, such as greater tax deductibility for small businesses so that the costs are not passed on�instead of, as Senator Fielding has done, calling for a reduction in fuel excise � we should be taking national leadership across all parties to have a national summit on how the Australian economy is going to respond to a world in which fuel prices are so much higher.
I want to examine the idea that a lower fuel excise would somehow be good for low-income families. If you had a look at what that would do, you would recognise that the biggest beneficiaries of lower petrol taxes are high-income families. The poorest 20 per cent of households account for only eight per cent of retail consumption of petrol. That is, out of a reduction such as that which is being proposed, they would receive only $336 million in benefit from the $3.8 billion reduction in revenue that would occur.
High-income families spend a disproportionate amount on petrol. Wealthier households own more cars, bigger cars, and drive them longer distances. Often those cars are part of salary packages and those people are not even aware most of the time how much they are actually spending on fuel. Plus, with the fringe benefits tax there is a disincentive to be economical in fuel use; in fact, the incentive is to go further in order to maximise the benefits under the fringe benefits tax. So the richest 20 per cent of households would receive a benefit of nearly $1.2 billion per year if Senator Fielding�s policy of reducing fuel excise were to be introduced. That is, in my view, an inequitable way of going, and it would also help to conceal the problems that are going to face Australian families and businesses in an energy dependent society like Australia.
If one wanted to act on this crisis in the short term and to help the poor, the way to do it would be to take away the GST on public transport. That would make transport more accessible and cheaper. It would also be beneficial in terms of efficiency and in reducing oil consumption and greenhouse gases. It would also be a good idea to review the fringe benefits tax provisions. There are a whole lot of things one could do in terms of energy efficiency, public transport and so on.
But issues about what we might do in the short term are not what we should be discussing in relation to the crisis that is facing us. People say, �Oh well, I will use my car less� or �I will walk more,� and so on. But our whole lives are geared around oil. There is a very good article by a geologist, Dale Allen Pfeiffer, called �Eating fossil fuels�. It is written in the context of America, but it points out that every step of the modern food production chain is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered. Pesticides are made from oil. Commercial fertilisers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which it is estimated will peak in production about 10 years after oil peaks. With the exception of a few experimental prototypes, all farming implements, such as tractors and trailers, are constructed and powered using oil. Food storage systems, such as refrigerators, are manufactured in oil powered plants and distributed across oil powered transportation networks. They usually run on electricity, which often comes from natural gas or coal.
In the US, the average piece of food is transported almost 1,500 miles before it gets to the plate. In Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000 miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed. I was talking in here last week about the case of orange juice, which is brought from Brazil in refrigerated tankers, pumped out, bottled and sold on the Australian market at huge cost in terms of greenhouse gas production and oil consumption.
So if you look at transportation and agriculture you can see that increased fuel and oil prices will have a huge adverse impact right down the production chain. You also see that if you look at modern medicine, water distribution and, of course, national defence. They are all entirely powered by oil and petrol derived chemicals.
I am seeking a cooperative process with the other parties in the Senate and in the parliament to start looking at what the ramifications are for the Australian economy and way of life if we accept that oil prices are going to remain high into the future. Let us stop the suggestion that this is going to change.
I notice that Mr Beazley, the Leader of the Opposition, says in a press release that we should be doing this at least �while petrol prices are so high.� The fact is that petrol prices are going to be high from now on ad infinitum. It would be a failure of leadership if this parliament did not get together and all across the country start talking to industry leaders, the agricultural sector, the medical sector, the defence sector et cetera to work out what our strategy is for dealing with a future of high oil prices and decreasing self-sufficiency.
Bass Strait, for example, is going to be in significant decline as a producer of oil in the next couple of decades. By 2020, it will be down to 30 per cent of its current production.
Tomorrow, I will be raising this issue by calling for a Senate inquiry in relation to oil production and capacity in Australia. But I wanted to speak today about taking a leadership role. Instead of politicking and criticising one another about which side of politics can achieve cheaper petrol or fuel prices for the consumer, the farmer, the fisherman or whomever, we should be agreeing that we will have a look at it.
If we come to the conclusion, as I am suggesting, that oil is declining in supply, that oil prices are likely to be high into the future, that the impact is likely to be inflationary and lead to high interest rates and that it is likely to cause quite considerable dislocation, then we have to have a national plan for dealing with a future in which economic growth cannot be predicated on ongoing, cheap and plentiful oil supplies. That would show the strategic leadership that Australians expect from their elected parliamentarians.
http://christinemilne.org.au/500_parliament_sub.php?deptItemID=15
_________________
2008 � World oil production begins to decline,
stockmarkets crash, airlines bankrupt, and the
Greater Depression begins
www.eclipsenow.org � Welcome to the end of the oil age!
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