Which is stronger might or may?

[JuanTwoThree]

Good idea Lucy but "may have" is far more common than "might have" on Google, by about 3 to 1.

Does anybody still go along with this distinction?: between

1 4000 might have died (but they didn't)

2 4000 may have died (we don't know)

3 4000 could have died (either meaning).

My father used to get very cross with the BBC for constantly getting this "wrong" in his opinion.

Certainly after a car crash that you survived you don't say "I may have died".

But can 1 mean 2? If you can see a light in the distance and hear a heavenly choir are "I may/might have died" similar except that "I might have died" is more sceptical?

[Stephen Jones]

This is a messy one, as different contexts need to be looked at carefully.

I may/might/could pop by later.
Any difference in possibility here? I suspect not. As the second forms (did/might/could/said etc) are more distant than the first forms (do/may/can/say) one would expect might to be more distant in possibility than may but I doubt if this is so (after all nobody suggests 'could' is less possible than 'may').

With regard to Juan's three sentences I think there is a specific lexical meaning to 'might/could have' that doesn't apply to 'may have'.
You could/might have phoned to say you would be late.
is a reproach and 'may' cannot be used. However we cannot over-generalize to say that 'might have' should always have that meaning; in
"He could/may/might have come while we were out"the choice of modal makes no significant difference to the possibiility of his having come.

This is the kind of question that a good descriptive guide such as the CGEL or MWGEU is intended to cover. Talking about 'correctness' when the speaker means 'my own set of petty prejudices' leads nowhere useful.

[metal56]

I may/might/could pop by later.
Any difference in possibility here? I suspect not.

And I thought you suggest looking carefully at different contexts. You haven't even created a context yet.

If one wants to consider context, one must also consider the actual speakers involved in the conversation, their relationship, etc.

[lucy lace]

Again, I am attempting to prod discussion: I argue that the usage is not so much "indiscriminate" but convenient. In some cases, "might" just rolls off the tongue better. The difference in definition is so subtle (if indeed there at all), most native speakers go for ease of speech over nuance in meaning.

Can you tell me how ease affects choices here?

may be - 38006 appearances in 1 million words
might be - 15533 appearances in 1 million words

Source: http://view.byu.edu/

If you google "may" and "might" prevalence, aren't you going to get the occurrence of written usage?

At least Metal used BYU, and I assume he searched for spoken references.

As for explaining the popularity of "may be" - first of all, that in no way argues that "may" is stronger than "might" - and indeed, could strengthen my argument regarding ease of speech. My original argument talked about MY PERSONAL USAGE, and specifically referred to past modals. Is it not possible that in the present, "may be" is easier to say than "might be"? (The /t/ to /b/ is swallowed/reduced to a flap in my dialect). In the past, "might have" could be construed as easier. I dunno. Anyway, just because "may be" came up with more hits doesn't prove anything about anything - are you saying that people are more likely to talk about the stronger possibilities in their lives than the weaker ones?

[JuanTwoThree]

Very much in your favour is that "might've" is five times more popular than "may've", both examples of people writing how they speak more or less.

I can't prove it but I agree that some of this may well be down to "might've" being more pleasing to the ear, leaving aside strong and weak possibilities and the whole business of what did and not happen.

[lolwhites]

Presumably Google hits will include a lot of message boards, where people often type as they speak. The trouble is Google is such a blunt instrument that if you search for a modal you'll get stacks of different contexts, all mixed up.

[lucy lace]

This is a messy one, as different contexts need to be looked at carefully.

I may/might/could pop by later.
Any difference in possibility here? I suspect not. .

"I could pop by later" sounds to me like an offer, a suggestion of ability, not of possibility.

[Metamorfose]

And what about I could come later?

José

[metal56]

< I dunno. >

I agree.

[lucy lace]

<I dunno.>

"I agree" ??? What, you agree that I don't know?? How snide.

You were the one, Metal, who suggested there was no universal "definative" answer to this question, despite your assertion that may is "definately" stronger than might. At least I acknowledge that my argument is a hypothesis, rather than spouting as if I am an expert.

[metal56]

"I agree" ??? What, you agree that I don't know?? How snide.

Just a tease, Lucy. Keep yer ,air ron.

[Buddhaheart]

&#65279;My unscientific review of limited literature available to me indicates that “might” is weaker in expressing possibility or probability but stronger in expressing politeness and sureness than “may”.

Therefore my vote would be to the worthy candidate “may” as a stronger modal of possibility/probability.

[stephen]

Having read the comments so far it seems to me that any of you who plan to explain this to your students in terms of stronger/weaker are on very thin ice. Get a decent sized group of native speakers and you'll not get agreement, for evidence please read the above blog. I also find that in general it is extremely rare to encounter a student or group of them at a level where a discussion of this point would be anything but a completely meaningless waste of class time.

Having said all that, I'm having difficulty deciding. I would tend to go with the idea that in my own speach at least the primary determinant would be contextual. Some words just don't feel right in certain situations or in conjunction with other words.

Also, I would suggest that usage is in part a personal preference. I tend to use might more. This preference is probably equatable to the way that I'll happily use "grand" or "sound" but cringe at the use of "wicked". Sometimes words feel better to you for no obviously definable reason.

[John Hall]

I am from Nova Scotia, Canada, and have always used "might" as meaning a less than 50% chance of something, and "may" as meaning about a 50% chance.

I just caught myself the other day saying to a student, "You might want to consider..." There is no doubt in my mind that I used "might" in that sentence as a way to strongly suggest something, and that "may" would not have been as strong. Nevertheless, in other situations, I think I still use "may" as a stronger word than "might."