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Exit Strategy in Case of War?
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kungfuman



Joined: 31 May 2012
Posts: 1749
Location: In My Own Private Idaho

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:41 pm    Post subject: Exit Strategy in Case of War? Reply with quote

Seems my friends and relatives seemed more concerned about the recent Japanese - Chinese events then most of the expats I work with or socialize with here.

What about YOU? There are 2 threads on the Off Topic section here but they don't cover our own feelings and thoughts about what should we do IF something worse breaks out.

Personally I think that things will escalate as China is clearly being more aggressive here and Japan has said and done little. Japan may be taking the "low road" here and just waiting till China puts itself in a situation where Japan can strike and strike hard.

If (when?) this happens, what will YOU do? Leave? Do nothing?

If there is escalation between the two sides then the US will certainly be sucked in. After reading about Gary Locke's Beijing encounters where the US is being blamed for this and reading MANY comments on the www where Chinese point the finger directly at the USA for "giving" control of these islands to Japan I have to question my safety as am American living in a country where things can turn hostile in a moments notice. And we all know the Chinese police won't help us and would probably turn away quickly.

Chinese mob mentality seems to rival Middle Eastern mob mentality - thankfully minus the Ak47's.

So, If (when?) this happens, what will YOU do? Leave? Do nothing?
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7969



Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Posts: 5782
Location: Coastal Guangdong

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is that giant peace avatar part of your new home security plan?

Very Happy
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kungfuman



Joined: 31 May 2012
Posts: 1749
Location: In My Own Private Idaho

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

7969 wrote:
Is that giant peace avatar part of your new home security plan?

Very Happy


YES exactly! And my Chinese girlfriend burned my three t shirts with Japanese flags / logos on them.
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xiguagua



Joined: 09 Oct 2011
Posts: 768

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This year i've decided that worrying about these issues and how the Chinese feel about these issues is what has caused me a lot of stress and unhappiness in the past. So i'm trying to go this year without talking about it and getting all worked up.

That being said, keeping things purely hypothetical, if a war does break out, the embassies will likely tell their citizens to leave. I'm registered at the embassy and receive all their warnings and they know where I am. I don't imagine Chinese people preventing us from leaving. If the people don't, we all have friends that don't care about that and would get us to safety (Airport or HK or whatever).

I can throw everything I need in one suitcase and be on my way out in an hour. Once you get to the airport I don't imagine people giving you a hard time, especially if you're getting out asap. Let's say it becomes are REAL war and starts dragging on, then you'd be stupid to stay. The way the Chinese (ignorantly I believe) feel about this issue will turn them in to bigger monsters.

For the record, I will say that what the Japanese did in the past was wrong, but China is going that exact same direction, and if there was a war, you'd see them do the exact same things the Japanese did. The concept of "the bigger man can forgive others" is lost on them.
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7969



Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Posts: 5782
Location: Coastal Guangdong

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Exit Strategy in Case of War? Reply with quote

kungfuman wrote:
Seems my friends and relatives seemed more concerned about the recent Japanese - Chinese events then most of the expats I work with or socialize with here.

People who are thousands of miles away and who know little or nothing about this region, save for what they hear on the news, will usually have a distorted view of what's really going on. Expats here in China probably aren't too worried because there really isn't a lot to be worried about right now.

kungfuman wrote:
After reading about Gary Locke's Beijing encounters where the US is being blamed for this and reading MANY comments on the www where Chinese point the finger directly at the USA for "giving" control of these islands to Japan I have to question my safety as am American living in a country where things can turn hostile in a moments notice. And we all know the Chinese police won't help us and would probably turn away quickly.

I don't really put much stock in readers comments on stories. 1. I never read most of them, because 2. they're usually all posted by the same mindless numbskulls who have nothing to do in life but post crap on the internet. Somewhat similar to what we're all doing on this Friday night right here. . . Laughing
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Lobster



Joined: 20 Jun 2006
Posts: 2040
Location: Somewhere under the Sea

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is so hypothetical, but in a practical sense our contracts will become void if there is a war (at least mine says so).

Realistically, there are only three options; stay here and hunker down, go home or go to teach in another country. What else is on the table? You certainly don't want to be interned as an enemy alien if you're a US citizen.

As with most things in China, I'm sure we'll get 8 hours' notice if something is going to happen.

RED
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rioux



Joined: 26 Apr 2012
Posts: 880

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is there a link to sign up to receive all the embassy warnings?
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chinatimes



Joined: 27 May 2012
Posts: 478

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where is credible evidence the Chinese will do anything?

Someone is transplanting the fear in Libya and Middle East over to Asia.

It wouldn't matter if you were American or not. It's the face, Asian or not that would be the factor. However, we are far from any unified response from China.

Do you know politics 101? Whenever there is a change in power (China and US in fact, Korea in December), there is always a flaunting of war and independence.

It will subside afterwards.
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doogsville



Joined: 17 Nov 2011
Posts: 924
Location: China

PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

xiguagua wrote:

For the record, I will say that what the Japanese did in the past was wrong, but China is going that exact same direction, and if there was a war, you'd see them do the exact same things the Japanese did. The concept of "the bigger man can forgive others" is lost on them.


I by 'lost on them' you mean the Chinese as a nation, then I would point out that not every single person in China thinks the same way, and that there is not a nation on earth that seems to understand that concept. Let's face it, the only reason we don't still publicly bear a grudge about Germany and Japan in the west is because they are economic powers.
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roadwalker



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Posts: 1750
Location: Ch

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rioux wrote:
Is there a link to sign up to receive all the embassy warnings?


They'll send you email warnings.

http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/

http://chengdu.usembassy-china.org.cn/

http://guangzhou.usembassy-china.org.cn/

http://shanghai.usembassy-china.org.cn/

http://shenyang.usembassy-china.org.cn/

http://wuhan.usembassy-china.org.cn/ Oops, they direct you to Beijing for US citizen services.

Choose which one is closer to you, or any of them. Click on US Citizen Enrollment. Sounds ominous. I replaced my passport in Shanghai and get double notices about Shanghai consular goings on and China-specific warnings, whether political or weather related.
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kungfuman



Joined: 31 May 2012
Posts: 1749
Location: In My Own Private Idaho

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have starting a contingency plan.

1- Pack a bag with bare necessities in case I need to make a quick exit - change of clothes and some cosmetics. Enough to survive and stay clean - leaving room for my laptop. Keeping this bag fresh and untouched in my bedroom. ( My clothes can be replaced and traveling lighter is easier when making a run.)

2- Changing rmb to dollars. I will change at least 1/2 of my money when I notice increased hostilities. The rest can be changed if needed prior to departure or left in the account and used in the next country - assuming no financial implications arise and the atm card still functions via the Unionpay network.

3- Where to go? Home is the obvious choice but let's assume getting there is not easy as 1000's of others have the same idea.

a. HK could be the easiest point that could be considered "Out Of China" and safe. But we know HK is expensive and always seemed to be overcrowded.
b. Philippines could be an easy escape and cheaper than HK if need to stay somewhere for a week while arranging safe passage home.
c. South Korea is a possibility but I wonder if hostilities relatively close to that country would impact air travel.
d. Thailand. Also cheap and pretty safe - but I think heading further away from the US may defeat the purpose of trying to escape home.
Keep in mind I am looking at locations where a US citizen doesn't need to get an advance visa before traveling.


I can honestly say that counting on the US Government to help me get home is probably not high on the list. I am sure they will help US Gov't staffers exit in a timely fashion but lowly expats? I won't hold my breath there.
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7969



Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Posts: 5782
Location: Coastal Guangdong

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kungfuman, were you watching Mission Impossible re-runs last night???
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twilothunder



Joined: 09 Dec 2011
Posts: 442

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

EU and US citizens can get visa on arrival in Vietnam. All you need is a crisp $50 dollar bill and the patience to wait in a longish queue. From Saigon or Hanoi international air travel is fairly straightforward.

Assuming of course, the hostilities you're talking about aren't the ones over the Spratlys Laughing
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roadwalker



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Posts: 1750
Location: Ch

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm with chinatimes on this one: I don't see much happening in terms of an actual war. I wouldn't count out some serious damage to Japanese or American assets in China, or even a few deaths, but the government doesn't want war and will tamp it down. Japan doesn't want war with China, either. And as was mentioned, more or less, above, the US only responds to attacks from smaller, less powerful countries.
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choudoufu



Joined: 25 May 2010
Posts: 3325
Location: Mao-berry, PRC

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twilothunder wrote:
EU and US citizens can get visa on arrival in Vietnam.


this is incorrect.

if you cross by land, you must have a visa issued by the embassy.
(refugees can try the viet consulates in kunming or nanning.)

if you fly in to hanoi or saigon, there is a pre-arranged visa, but
this must be applied for in advance, normally online thru a
viet travel agent. without the pre-arranged visa notification from
the agent, you cannot board the plane. if somehow you do, you
will be turned back at the airport.
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