Job Discussion Forums

[sigmoid]

There seems to be no end in sight for this saga.

Is everyone ready for the inevitable?

Ministry says no money for wage hike, legislators say cut other spending

http://www.thanhniennews.com/index/pages/20121024-vietnam-ministry-shows-proof-of-no-money-for-wage-increase-in-2013.aspx

[Mattingly]

This is current and worth the read. The PM's daughter rumored to be one of Vietnam's richest people. Holding the money from pops, for sure. A 24 year daughter of a Politburo member is an executive in a major company.

Sacombank needs a bailout.

And this is only what the public knows. It's the tip of the iceberg.

[mark_in_saigon]

The way I see this place, we have several serious issues, with very little on the asset side of the balance sheet counterbalancing things. Issue number one, to me, is the tremendous waste of resources (human and financial) in endeavors that do not create long term wealth or improvement for the system. The investments are being largely wasted in businesses and buildings that are frivolous and redundant, and which do not build long term wealth. Additionally, the economic capital (HCMC) continues to expand, creating a greater flood risk, which could eventually cripple the entire city. Not to forget the outright poisoning of the entire nation with sewage and pollution. This special moment with the current demographic profile (many young, few old) will not last forever, and is when education should be most important, creating a class of people who can work in high wage jobs. I think it is pretty obvious how the education system is succeeding.

Still, we do have a youthful work force of mostly intelligent (not to say highly educated) and mostly highly motivated young people, that cost very little to employ. Lots of coastline, never freezes, plenty of rain.

Great thing about history, no one can really predict what will happen. China is the big wildcard, depending on what happens with them, their influence could trump the mistakes being made over here. On the other hand, Russian influence in the past did not seem to have a very positive impact, so it is anybody's guess what happens with these larger forces in the background. Same with the U.S., they could buddy up with these guys over these island disputes and have a major impact. Maybe, maybe not.

Based on what is happening domestically, it should be pretty be pretty easy to see where it goes from here, unless some of these major players come along and change the game somehow.

[deadlift]

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2012/11/18/entrepreneurship-and-economic-growth/

[mark_in_saigon]

[sigmoid]

Vietnam: War nostalgia not enough to hoist ailing economy

"Posters of US bombers crashing in flames festoon Hanoi to mark another anniversary in a long-finished war. But behind the usual propaganda Vietnam's rulers face a modern-day threat � anger over the economy."

continued:

http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-23-vietnam-war-nostalgia-not-enough-to-hoist-ailing-economy

[Mushroom Druid]

This is only what we are told about. Lots of other banks in trouble: VDB has $1 Billion in bad loans, which is 12.57 percent of its loans.

Tip of the ice berg.

[sigmoid]

[Mattingly]

If the World Bank gives Vietnam money - bailout - it is just more money to steal. It would not change the way things are done in Vietnam. More bad medicine. Throwing good money after bad.

I'm losing track on which bankers have been arrested and from which banks these bad loans were scammed.

[sigmoid]

[Riding One]

I am noticing more and more business in Hanoi closing. You can feel it. We're better of because of the jobs we do (teach English) but there is less demand, lower enrollments and if you want to work in Hanoi, wait well into Spring.

2 Articles. One on the "big picture" and one article on a regular worker's situation.

[A Fancy Gentleman]

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[A Fancy Gentleman]

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[sigmoid]

The latest "progress":

Slow Reforms Cloud Vietnam�s Economic Growth Outlook

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-07/slow-reforms-cloud-vietnam-s-economic-growth-outlook-imf-says.html

[mark_in_saigon]

Lots of news here recently. It is my opinion that even a news story that appears to be well researched has to be considered anecdotal. The deeper you see inside organizations or systems, the more you realize that almost no numbers are reported accurately, from the lowest levels on up. While it is pretty easy to agree that the economy is not doing especially well, what this means in terms of true output or more importantly, the real impact on the general population is more of a guess than anything. Also, you have to really broaden your thinking to remember what the term "activity" really includes. It is my opinion that much of the activity going on is unreported, and so if indeed anyone knows fairly precise numbers, these figures are certainly not reported in the press. Consider the concept of economic activity, how it measures output. Think of the last decade or so when we had a lot of activity building things that are largely unused, and even if they are used, they do not really add to the long term health of the system. Looking at the huge oversupply of high end multi family housing that has never been finished is an example, but one could include high end single family dwellings that were finished (and are still going up) which then sit largely unused. It is easy to come up with many other examples, just drive around and look at the glut of karaoke, coffee shops, high end retail, hotels, add your favorite examples. While all this was/is being built, it is economic activity, which we are trying to strive for and measure and celebrate. After it is put up and seen to be mostly a waste, one has to question if a lot of economic activity is even worth having. So now we are not building as much of this, it may actually be better, at least someone�s money is not being put into a monster concrete shell that will now sit uncompleted for years. So, while it could be lower reported economic activity, it could be a positive.

But this concept just scratches the surface on what is mostly unknowable, or if it is knowable, so radioactive that to have a serious discussion of it would need to take place in an academic and/or political context far removed from here.