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spiral78
Joined: 05 Apr 2004
Posts: 11534
Location: On a Short Leash
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 Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:51 pm Post subject: Over-Confidence |
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Interesting article. I think it relates to a few newbie posters we see here regularly - like those North Americans who are sure that if they persevere, they'll find a way around EU hiring laws, or those who feel that because they've been fairly successful in one teaching context, they'll be stars in others.
I also wonder whether this is generationally related - I of course think that I and my age group are much less overconfident than today's young pups 
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/23/business/opinion-low-confidence-success/index.html?hpt=hp_c6
I have bolded a couple of sections I thought particularly interesting.
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London (CNN) -- Few things are more overrated than confidence.
Many people see it as the key ingredient of success, and assume that boosting confidence is the solution to all their relationship and career problems. Most people would rather swallow a confidence pill than a pill designed to boost their knowledge, empathy, or competence
Yet, there is little evidence for the positive effects of high confidence, and a great deal of evidence for its detrimental effects. Furthermore, although much of Western society regards insecurity as a sort of character disability, there are many psychological advantages to low confidence, and several reasons for embracing our inner insecurities and self-doubts.
1. There is no shortage of confident people in the world: One of the best-documented biases of human thinking is the "better-than-average bias," which concerns the almost universal tendency of people to regard themselves as better than the average person in virtually any domain of competence. For example, ask people whether their driving skills are better than average, and 85% of respondents will say "Yes;" same goes for sense of humor, leadership talent, and singing ability.
Moreover, even when people are told about the better-than-average bias, and asked whether it applies to them, 80% of respondents say "No." In addition, neuroscientific research shows that optimism is a pervasive judgment bias, which causes most people to underestimate the feasibility of negative events happening to them. The bottom line is that most people have more confidence than they need: We are just not as great as we think we are.
2. There is no evidence that overconfidence breeds success: Henry Ford famously noted that "whether you think you can do it or not, you are usually right." It turns out he was wrong. Try thinking that you are going to be the next Steve Jobs, marry Brad Pitt, or have more Twitter followers than Lady Gaga.
And if you think that the problem is that those things are hard to envisage, let me assure you that there is no shortage of people in the world who aspire to these and other unattainable goals. The psychological term for them is "delusional" and while it may be tempting to encourage them to keep dreaming, they would actually benefit more from having more realistic and achievable goals.
3. There is a high price for overconfidence: Our evolutionary ancestors developed confidence as an internal alarm system that alerted them about environmental threats. That is still the adaptive function of confidence, namely to inhibit behavior in the hope of preventing failure or avoiding danger. When you don't feel confident about crossing a busy road, that self-estimate of your ability will stop you from being killed crossing the road.
And if you don't feel confident about giving a talk to a big audience, you should probably prepare more and improve. Although there is clear evidence that low confidence is linked to realistic competence deficits, most people are overconfident, so they have a natural tendency to misjudge danger. The 2008 financial meltdown, the abundance of sociopathic managers and politicians, and the frequency of road accidents -- especially in male drivers, who account for over 80% of serious car accidents despite being much more confident than female drivers about their driving skills -- are just some examples.
So, what does this imply for individuals' career success and the effectiveness of organizations?
The first implication is that the world needs more humility -- and low confidence is not a bad starting place to achieve that. Unless we are aware of our limitations, and dissatisfied about our perceived levels of ability, we will have no incentive to improve, and no motivation to work hard to get better. Conversely, when we feel annoyed or discontent because we experience a gap between the person we think we are and the person we want to, our insecurity can be a catalyst of success.
The second implication is that an individual's short-term gains from overconfidence come at the expense of long-term collective gains. In other words, if we keep rewarding those who think highly of themselves, simply because they think highly of themselves, then we will always end up with incompetent charlatans in positions of power and influence.
This is an important, yet neglected, point that most people neglect when they highlight the apparent benefits of overconfidence. For example, would you rather have a pilot, surgeon, or teacher who is great at faking competence, or someone who is actually competent? The same logic should apply in all professions and areas of life.
The third and final implication is that we need to get better at distinguishing between confidence and competence. Clearly, we are not very good at this and that's why some individuals successfully exploit overconfidence as a presentational strategy. When bad singers appear on a talent show, their confidence only makes them look sillier -- because it highlights a huge gap between their self-perceived or claimed abilities and how competent they actually are.
It is time to apply the same discerning powers other situations: Job interviews, first dates, and networking events. When we hear people making claims about their talents, let's not assume that they are true, even if they are being honest (as a consequence of being self-deceived). Most talented people don't brag about themselves, and most of the self-promoters in the world are simply impostors. Britain understands this more than America, but less than most Asian countries.
In the end, the societies that value humility, hard work, and self-knowledge will eclipse those that celebrate hubris, entitlement and self-esteem -- or has this already happened?
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Sashadroogie
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 11061
Location: Moskva, The Workers' Paradise
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:05 pm Post subject: |
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Bravo! A super article!
Thanks for sharing. |
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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:36 pm Post subject: |
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Dear spiral78,
Humph - you think you're better than I, don't you? Well, your overconfidence is showing. 
Regards,
Better than average John |
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Sashadroogie
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 11061
Location: Moskva, The Workers' Paradise
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Not just better than average... Super average!!! |
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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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"Illusory superiority refers to the cognitive bias with which individuals overestimate their own qualities and abilities, relative to others. This is evident in a variety of areas including intelligence, performance on tasks or tests, and the possession of desirable characteristics or personality traits. It is one of many positive illusions relating to the self, and is a phenomenon studied in social psychology.
Illusory superiority is often referred to as the above average effect. Other terms include superiority bias, leniency error, sense of relative superiority, the primus inter pares effect,[1] and the Lake Wobegon effect (named after Garrison Keillor's fictional town where "all the children are above average").[2] The phrase "illusory superiority" was first used by Van Yperen and Buunk in 1991."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority
Well, except in MY case, of course.
Regards,
John |
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spiral78
Joined: 05 Apr 2004
Posts: 11534
Location: On a Short Leash
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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Dear John:
Actually, I have to admit that I fail the overconfidence test fairly miserably. I'm totally convinced that no-one wants to hear me sing, and while my driving record is absolutely clean, I am an extremely nervous driver (and passenger) and have basically refused to drive on a daily basis ever again.
Unfortunately, I'm all too aware that I'm liable to failure, and have the scars to prove it;-). Having been a 'boss' for some time has only added to my tendency to question my decisions. I still make them, but with quite a lot more consideration than I might have some years back.
So, you are welcome to be better than me
Regards,
learned-to-be-cautious spiral |
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Sashadroogie
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 11061
Location: Moskva, The Workers' Paradise
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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Spiral, join the Party! Never doubt yourself again!
The system works! |
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spiral78
Joined: 05 Apr 2004
Posts: 11534
Location: On a Short Leash
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Can the Party give me a pleasant singing voice? I'm IN!!!!!! |
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Sashadroogie
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 11061
Location: Moskva, The Workers' Paradise
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Join the Pioneers! All our youth gets extensive cultural training. Including singing lessons. |
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spiral78
Joined: 05 Apr 2004
Posts: 11534
Location: On a Short Leash
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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So nice of you to suggest I'd fit in with your yoot group:-)
Totally flattered - tending towards overconfidence now! |
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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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Dear spiral78,
Hmm, have you been remiss in taking your Lithium lately; those mood swings seem to be increasing in frequency?
Regards,
John |
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Mushkilla
Joined: 17 Apr 2014
Posts: 320
Location: United Kingdom
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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I think confidence or lack of confidence is more to do with how people think about themselves in their surrounding environment (social, professional, sports, drama, etc) and it can oscillate with time.
But the human treat which is more important than confidence, and ignored by people, is faith.
Because with faith you are looking to future hope and 'inner' certainty about things in your life. A wise man/women is the one who combines faith with confidence in a balanced and positive way.
If you think you are over-confident in the sense that you think you are superior to others, then this is "arrogance".
In politics, vote of 'no-confidence' has nothing to do with faith!  |
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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:47 pm Post subject: |
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Dear Mushkilla,
I disagree - I think that one's level of self-confidence is a core feeling that doesn't "oscillate" much, if at all, and isn't dependent upon one's environment or the situation one is in.
As for "faith," I'm not sure what you mean since a person with justified self-confidence would feel sure that he/she could cope with whatever the future might hold.
And I think we are all superior and inferior to others in certain respects; a wise person, I'd say, recognizes his/her strengths/weaknesses/limitations and is also usually able to discern when he/she is superior/inferior to another in some respect.
Regards,
John |
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Mushkilla
Joined: 17 Apr 2014
Posts: 320
Location: United Kingdom
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:06 pm Post subject: |
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| johnslat wrote: |
Dear Mushkilla,
I disagree - I think that one's level of self-confidence is a core feeling that doesn't "oscillate" much, if at all, and isn't dependent upon one's environment or the situation one is in. |
If you were living in Russia or Iraq, the level of your self-confidence will be near zero or negative (no-confidence). Because you are living in the land of Uncle Sam, the land of "were dreams come true", your level of confidence in everything of life will be high compared to somebody living in Iraq, Russia, or Africa. I think the surrounding environment is a factor on how people think, behave, and react.
| Quote: |
| As for "faith," I'm not sure what you mean since a person with justified self-confidence would feel sure that he/she could cope with whatever the future might hold. |
Not in spiritual sense.
How do you explain the high rate of suicide in America and the West?
Is it lack of confidence or faith? |
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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:40 pm Post subject: |
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Dear Mushkilla,
"If you were living in Russia or Iraq, the level of your self-confidence will be near zero or negative (no-confidence). Because you are living in the land of Uncle Sam, the land of "were dreams come true", your level of confidence in everything of life will be high compared to somebody living in Iraq, Russia, or Africa. I think the surrounding environment is a factor on how people think, behave, and react."
Nope - maybe that's true of you, but it's not true of me.
As for suicide rates, the US is No. 18 on the list - but I suspect there may be as many different causes for it as there are suicides.
http://www.rferl.org/contentinfographics/suicide-rates-around-world/25475212.html
Regards,
John |
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