Job Discussion Forums

[once again]

So much has been written here and I have to agree with both the hsyteria camp and the be careful camp. But, one of my fellow teachers got the disease and I must admit to be having a harrowing time about the whole thing at the moment.
The latest figures from Hong Kong are that around 500 confirmed suffers have been released and 100 have died of the disease. This is not comforting. We are now seeing speculation that the death rate is way above the previous 5%. Infact if one takes the death rate as a percentage of the released rate it seems to me to be about 25% mortality.

Having personal experience of the problem and being in HK, I would just like to say that many of us are aware of the hype and the multitude of statistics that are floated around about how this is no problem, but it doesnt take away the nervousness and the fear when posters write stuff mocking it all.

If you want to mock, then fine. But just be aware that fears of being involved and in close contact with a new virus that has no known origin, cure or even agreed upon treatment is something that even the most media savy and sceptical people will become alarmed at. Hype may be hype, but it doesnt distract from the figures that are becoming quite worrying nor from the feelings of worry and concern for our families and friends.

[hubei_canuk]

Good luck to you onceagain.

Here in west Hubei, we just don't know. We hear it's in the factory area, we hear it's in the suburb. The principals hold private meetings with the teachers and tell them the provincial gov't says its near here. People are afraid for themsleves, their children, teachers tell me not to take the public bus, to eat at home etc etc. there are masks on the street, the adults the kids...
..
But we KNOW nothing. expect Beijing says hubei has 6 cases.
...
Just keeping my head down. Til i know which way the wind is blowing.

[gmat]

Data from Hong Kong seems the most reliable, and the following article provides information on the mortality rate. It appears the death rate will end up being in the 10 to 16 percent range.

Money quote from article on Death Rate in Hong Kong:

"An instructor of surgery at Harvard University, Henry Niman, has said the death rate should be calculated by comparing fatalities with people who fully recover from SARS.

That method would give Hong Kong a mortality rate of 16.7 per cent from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, based on the latest statistics released yesterday."



Sars Death Rate Inches Higher In Hong Kong http://tinyurl.com/aa4f

The death rate from SARS in Hong Kong has increased to 7.2 per cent of reported cases - up from about 5 per cent earlier in the crisis - and officials fear it may go higher.

Hong Kong's toll has topped 100, with 105 of the 1,458 cases ending in fatalities as of yesterday afternoon.

Hong Kong's Health Department had been reporting the number of deaths divided by the number of cases, but some have questioned that calculation, saying some people already in hospitals would still die and push the numbers higher.

The South China Morning Post quoted two experts in today's editions as saying the mortality rate in Hong Kong might end up around 10 per cent.

"Many academics estimated the death rate to be between 5 per cent and 6 per cent," said Sydney Chung Sheung-chee, dean of medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "But I believe it has been underestimated. I would hope that the figure would stay as low as possible, but a conservative estimate would be at least 10 per cent."

Chung and another expert who voiced a similar prediction, Dr Lo Wing-lok of the Hong Kong Medical Association, were not immediately available for comment when The Associated Press rang them early today.

An instructor of surgery at Harvard University, Henry Niman, has said the death rate should be calculated by comparing fatalities with people who fully recover from SARS.

That method would give Hong Kong a mortality rate of 16.7 per cent from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, based on the latest statistics released yesterday.

Hong Kong's health secretary, Dr Yeoh Eng-kiong, has said an accurate mortality rate will be available only when the crisis ends, and it remains unclear when that can happen.

Hong Kong today began taking the temperatures of some people crossing by land from the mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen, hoping to screen out anyone with a fever, which could indicate SARS. Officials hope to test everybody crossing the border within a few days, when they get enough equipment.

SARS is believed to have originated in November in neighbouring Guangdong province.

[once again]

Gmat has done a fine job there with that post. That is about as much as we know. Here are a few more figures.
According to this mornings newspaper cases are as follows. I have no idea if they are accurate.

Anhui..1
Chongquing 1
Fujian 3
Gansu 2
Hebei 6
Henan 8
Hubei 1
Jilin 7
Liaoning 1
Ningxia 5
Shaanxi 2
Shandong 1
Shanghai 2
Tianjin 8
Xinjiang 1
Zhejiang 3
Inner MOngolia 47
Bejing 774
Shanxi 162
Sichuan 8
Hunan 6
Guanxi 16
Guandong 1359.

For the rest of the world these places have reported cases. If there is no number next to the country then there are less than 10 reported cases. Australia, Brazil, Canada 140, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Malaysia, Mongolia, Philipines, Singapore 192, Sweden, Taiwan 37, Thailand, UK, United States 37, Vietnam 63. ONe case each in Bulgaria, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Kuwait, Romania, SOuth Africa, Spain, Switzerland.

I will try to re edit this post every day as new figures come up.

[once again]

I forgot to state that the above figures are confirmed cases and do not include suspected cases. WHO have now publicly stated that they believe there is under reporting in Shanghai. Bejing yesterday started to quarantine main hospitals.As many as 2,262 staff and patients were quarantined at the Peking University Peoples Hospital. Prisons in Bejing were also quarantined. (Not that I imagine they normally let the inmates out for a quick beer) The Shanghai municipal government announced that all inbound travellers must report their health and have their temperatures taken.
After an outbreak in Taipai, the Taipai municipal hospital will be closed for two weeks. 930 staff and 240 patients have been quarantined. Medical experts warned of a possible large scale outbreak in Taiwan.

The San Diego Zoo has decided not to send Hua Mei, the first giant panda born in the west in a decade, to China because of SARS!!!!

[arioch36]

Actually, prisons are the most notorious pneumonia and TB factories, worse then hospitals. Some of NYCity's worst outbreaks came from prison guards. Talk about under reporting, I hear it is atrocious in Russia where many prisoners don't live out there prison term.

I hope canuck is right about them burning bodies. Seems a reasonable precaution

[hubei_canuk]

"I hope canuck is right about them burning bodies. Seems a reasonable precaution" arioch36
......
Are you being provocative?
When the Chinese authorities burn bodies, the purpose is to disguise the fact that they have been shot or executed by lethal injection and then make the bodies "disappear".
In the case of SARS it would stop the population infection, especially in the provinces that don't have ANY SARS hospital facilities, and it would save their face.
No SARS patients, No problem!!

[hubei_canuk]

Here!
I calculated the latestst death rate in HK using todays's figures.
One should add the dicharged patients to the number of deaths and then take a percentage:
687 + 113.
That gives a death rate of 16.60 minimum.
I say minimum, because it is not confirmed the dischargees really had SARS.
That's in one of the places where IMHO the health care is one of the best in the world.

http://www.info.gov.hk/dh/diseases/ap/eng/infected.htm

This site is updated... daily or even more frequently
---------------------------------------

[hubei_canuk]

Someone might remember i posted earlier that death rates in China's countryside could approach anything forom 30 to 100 percent.
Just heard Health Official from WHO say same thing:
Anyuhing from 50 percent to "we just don't know".
...
Countryside wold have virtually no special care.
As for the spread of it... i can't imagine convincing parents, offspring, granparents not being visited when they were sick... you couldn't keep the relatives away. They would have no place to go but stay at home anyway... in the same house with all their extended family.

[once again]

There is so much stuff about SARS these days it is difficult to know where to begin posting...The Sunday figures for Hong Kong show that the number of new infections is falling. So we hope that any real risk/potential risk is falling. I met a friend today who told me that his brother is now in hospital with SARS. He is recovering well and hopefully will be released on Saturday. I am a little afraid to post this here..but my friend told me that his brother had responded well to steriods, but has been told now that because of the steriods he has liver problems. This makes what arioch has been saying more pertinent. On the other hand there are cases that have been reported that suggest that wihtout the steriods people would not have survived.

[arioch36]

I placed a link somewhere where several North American Doctors, one a Canadian leading specialist, said they were going to discontinue the use of steroids and ribavirin to treat "SARS" patients"
The real question might be whether your friend's friend really had SARS.

In the early years of the HIV craze, if they found you had HIV they considered it a death notice. You immediately were started on AZT. Not upon being sick, or having a lower t-cell count but even just having the HIV antibodies (And antibodies mean your body has defeated the virus)AZT, which I will say until the day of my death, will kill even healthy people. Look it up.

Now the Chinese penchant for over medication, I fear many people will receive dangerous treatments when they might only be slightly ill. It is crazy, and now the leaders are afraid of being labeled as someone who didn't act quickly enough. The doctors are very afraid of the same thing. Such fear leads to bad medical decisions, and bad political decisions.

[zacharybilton]