|
Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Students and Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
|
 Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:37 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
| Inflames wrote: |
| Fundamentally, absent large increases in productivity or large increases in the population of young people (not yet in their 40s), Abenomics is doomed to failure. |
Totally agree. And I'm sure Abe would agree, too. He would argue that his program of structural reforms and recent announcements on childcare will address these issues, but many observers, including myself, remain unconvinced.
| Inflames wrote: |
| Japan, up until the late 80s, relied on a cheap yen to fuel exports |
There's much more to it than that. Japan had a sophisticated strategy, orchestrated by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), to take over the world economy one sector at a time. That strategy broke down in the 80s when Japan moved into cutting edge technology and it became impossible to foresee how markets would develop.
| Inflames wrote: |
| Some manufacturers do quite well (for example, one company in Kyoto has a 60% share of the worldwide market for automobile exhaust test systems), but, for Panasonic or Sony (large companies with a choice of production areas), they simply don't want to produce here (same for Honda and Toyota). |
The most successful Japanese companies are ones you've probably never heard of, because they don't make consumer goods. Companies like Keyence (sensors) and Fanuc (industrial robots). |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
|
| Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
Pman, yes Japan got lost in the late 80s when the money went from hardware to soft. It was a hard transition, but a lot of the Japanese electric companies save for Sharp have made it back from the desert. Though Sony is an insurance/media company really.
I need to find my thread about success stories in Japan related to local communities getting the birthrate up close to 2.0. I don't think the national govt can have much effect on the birthrate, not on the national level.
As I said, except for commodities like household electronics and trinkets, only high end items are really able to be exported in the developed world. Look at Boeing, they make stuff all over the world, and have it shipped to Wash or SC for assembly. The days of making cars and exporting them is long over.
BTW I would LOVE it if they got the budget deficit down. It's still like 34% or so of the annual budget. ANd people complain about the sales tax going to 10%. That crap is crazy. Either cut of nenkin from old people who didn't have kids, or you gotta tax people/ |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
marley'sghost
Joined: 04 Oct 2010
Posts: 255
|
| Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
| rxk22 wrote: |
Pman, yes Japan got lost in the late 80s when the money went from hardware to soft. It was a hard transition, but a lot of the Japanese electric companies save for Sharp have made it back from the desert. Though Sony is an insurance/media company really.
I need to find my thread about success stories in Japan related to local communities getting the birthrate up close to 2.0. I don't think the national govt can have much effect on the birthrate, not on the national level.
As I said, except for commodities like household electronics and trinkets, only high end items are really able to be exported in the developed world. Look at Boeing, they make stuff all over the world, and have it shipped to Wash or SC for assembly. The days of making cars and exporting them is long over.
BTW I would LOVE it if they got the budget deficit down. It's still like 34% or so of the annual budget. ANd people complain about the sales tax going to 10%. That crap is crazy. Either cut of nenkin from old people who didn't have kids, or you gotta tax people/ |
As near as I can figure with my feeble knowledge of economics, the whole Abenomics thing is planning to do is to unhitch this Death Star that is the Japanese national debt from the real world and float it off into orbit. If the only people who own the debt is the BOJ, they don't have to worry about anyone calling them on it. Instead of borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, Paul is borrowing from Paul to pay Paul. They are just hoping to tread water....forever? I'm sure no one in government actually thinks these other "arrows" are going to put a proton torpedo down the Debt Star's exhaust port anytime soon. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
|
| Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:27 am Post subject: |
|
|
| marley'sghost wrote: |
| the whole Abenomics thing is planning to do is to unhitch this Death Star that is the Japanese national debt from the real world and float it off into orbit |
Love the metaphor. 
And who knows ... if the debt were static, it might even work. Just keep the Debt Star indefinitely suspended. The problem is: the debt is still growing at quite a clip. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
|
| Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:55 am Post subject: |
|
|
Yeah the debt is still growing at an alarming rate. A annual 36% deficit is bonkers.
I guess theyhope tto close it to zero. And then hope that Japanese corporate tax will keep increasing to pay down the debt. The last part is feasible. The first part....
BTW in the USA QE inversely has led to more savings http://www.businessinsider.com/savings-rate-increases-as-interest-rates-fall-2015-10 with almost no interest it's weird. My USA CD only yieldsbme .46%. Which is why I'm equity heavy |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
This page is maintained by the one and only Dave Sperling.
Contact Dave's ESL Cafe
Copyright © 2018 Dave Sperling. All Rights Reserved.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
