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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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 Posted: Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:04 pm Post subject: Accurate - or not? |
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What say you? Accurate? Hit and miss" Completely off-base?
There are big changes underway in Saudi Arabia
The House of Saud is crushing dissent and cutting benefits at home, while intervening militarily abroad. Why? Here's everything you need to know: Are the Saudis nervous? Very. The royal family feels threats from within the country and without, as the price of oil plunges, the predominantly young population grows restless, and Saudi Arabia's bitter rival, Shiite Iran, seeks to expand its influence throughout the region. The Saudis were also deeply alarmed by the Arab Spring, which saw long-established regimes crumble; the U.S.'s nuclear deal with Iran; and the rise of ISIS. Since King Salman took the throne a year ago, Saudi authorities have intensified government repression to a severe degree. . . . . (For more, please use the link below)/
http://www.theweek.com/articles/601880/there-are-big-changes-underway-saudi-arabia
Regards,
John |
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gregory999
Joined: 29 Jul 2015
Posts: 372
Location: 999
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| Posted: Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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As far as Uncle Sam is in "love" with the House of Saud, Uncle Sam will turn a blind eye on atrocities committed in the region, and relied on the House of Saud to "kill" any chance for a real democracy in the region for its political and economical interests.
House of Saud and Uncle Sam are two faces of he same coin!
So, the answer to your question is:
In politics the word "accuracy" has no meaning!  |
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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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| Posted: Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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Dear gregory999,
Which means, of course, that your post of political analysis is not accurate. 
Regards,
John |
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kugaas
Joined: 24 May 2009
Posts: 17
Location: London
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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Depends who you are/ask.
Typically there is different types of news these days, catering to the varying depositions found within society. |
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MixtecaMike
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 643
Location: Guatebad
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| Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Cutting energy subsidies, cutting off more heads, the Yemen end-of-hostilities cancelled, Russians bombing the Saudi proxies in Syria. Oh, dear KSA hasn't been the same since I left last June. |
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spanglish
Joined: 21 May 2009
Posts: 742
Location: working on that
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| Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:03 am Post subject: |
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John,
Things are getting worse - leadership transition, botched war next door, and cash infusion to Iran haven't helped - and will keep getting worse in direct proportion to price of oil, but the kingdom should be able to keep things under control for another year or so at current oil prices. But if prices stay at <$40/barrel for more than a couple years, things could get rather tense. |
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In the heat of the moment
Joined: 22 May 2015
Posts: 393
Location: Italy
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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| spanglish wrote: |
John,
Things are getting worse - leadership transition, botched war next door, and cash infusion to Iran haven't helped - and will keep getting worse in direct proportion to price of oil, but the kingdom should be able to keep things under control for another year or so at current oil prices. But if prices stay at <$40/barrel for more than a couple years, things could get rather tense. |
Ignoring the political aspects (because I have little knowledge of what is actually going on - not sure who does), the economics doesn't look as bad as some think. Saudi's foreign reserves are approximately $600 billion so would last around 4 or 5 years if oil prices and the deficit remain the same.
Saudi's government debt is about $200/person and it has quite a bit of the black stuff to borrow against. In comparison, the UK's government debt/person is $40,000, the US's is $60,000 and Japan's is $100,000. Saudi could probably go into debt to the tune of several hundred billions of dollars (I believe it did - but not by nearly as much in the 90s when the price of oil crashed). That would allow it to ride a low oil price for several more years. And/or it could sell off part of Aramco and finance government funding for a few more years.
I think those in charge are already assuming they will have to take those measures, as Saudi has recently borrowed small amounts on world markets and touted the idea of privatising Aramco. It seems newer technical advances are making the US's price of oil production through horizontal drilling/shale oil lower and lower, Iran's cost at the well head is said to be in the low single digits, and hopefully fuel efficiencies and alternative energy will make up the difference.
I see today's oil markets as possibly the end of the beginning, rather than the beginning of the end, but what do I know? Probably some famous last words, recorded here to be mocked mercilessly for years to come! |
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currentaffairs
Joined: 22 Aug 2012
Posts: 828
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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| It is funny how not so long ago we were all talking about ever dwindling resources and now we suddenly have a glut of oil.... I think that once the world economy rights itself the sheer numbers in China and elsewhere will see commodities like oil being in demand and prices will rise again, at least in the mid-term. |
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spanglish
Joined: 21 May 2009
Posts: 742
Location: working on that
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| In the heat of the moment wrote: |
| spanglish wrote: |
John,
Things are getting worse - leadership transition, botched war next door, and cash infusion to Iran haven't helped - and will keep getting worse in direct proportion to price of oil, but the kingdom should be able to keep things under control for another year or so at current oil prices. But if prices stay at <$40/barrel for more than a couple years, things could get rather tense. |
Ignoring the political aspects (because I have little knowledge of what is actually going on - not sure who does), the economics doesn't look as bad as some think. Saudi's foreign reserves are approximately $600 billion so would last around 4 or 5 years if oil prices and the deficit remain the same.
Saudi's government debt is about $200/person and it has quite a bit of the black stuff to borrow against. In comparison, the UK's government debt/person is $40,000, the US's is $60,000 and Japan's is $100,000. Saudi could probably go into debt to the tune of several hundred billions of dollars (I believe it did - but not by nearly as much in the 90s when the price of oil crashed). That would allow it to ride a low oil price for several more years. And/or it could sell off part of Aramco and finance government funding for a few more years.
I think those in charge are already assuming they will have to take those measures, as Saudi has recently borrowed small amounts on world markets and touted the idea of privatising Aramco. It seems newer technical advances are making the US's price of oil production through horizontal drilling/shale oil lower and lower, Iran's cost at the well head is said to be in the low single digits, and hopefully fuel efficiencies and alternative energy will make up the difference.
I see today's oil markets as possibly the end of the beginning, rather than the beginning of the end, but what do I know? Probably some famous last words, recorded here to be mocked mercilessly for years to come! |
Yeah, I've been skeptical of the calls of doom and demise of the Kingdom in part because of their strong foreign reserves. However, the 'tenseness' or whatever would probably start rising to a high level well before they had spent all of their savings. |
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currentaffairs
Joined: 22 Aug 2012
Posts: 828
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veiledsentiments
Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17644
Location: USA
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| Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:04 am Post subject: |
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On "hopes" that they will agree.
But then there is Iran's oil hitting the market any minute. Most of the oil gurus are expecting low prices through 2016. Right now the US refiners have so much crude stockpiled that they are running out of storage.
VS |
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In the heat of the moment
Joined: 22 May 2015
Posts: 393
Location: Italy
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| Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:54 am Post subject: |
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| veiledsentiments wrote: |
On "hopes" that they will agree.
But then there is Iran's oil hitting the market any minute. Most of the oil gurus are expecting low prices through 2016. Right now the US refiners have so much crude stockpiled that they are running out of storage.
VS |
Iran is an interesting case. It actually was still exporting about 2 million barrels per day during the embargo, once lifted it will export another 500,000 immediately and is forecast to increase the output to 3 million this year.
The interesting part is that its infrastructure can only handle 3 million, with oil prices so low I doubt it could increase that figure by much. If oil prices increase significantly it could sell more once investments in drilling etc bring returns. The extra output will bring down oil prices, an ironic contradiction maybe. |
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