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dajiang

Joined: 13 May 2004 Posts: 663 Location: Guilin!
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Posted: Sat Aug 07, 2004 6:26 am Post subject: Taiwanese opinions on the mainland. |
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Hey there, I've been teaching in the PRC for a year and a half now, and all I hear here is that Taiwan is a part of China and yadda yadda yadda.
But, as you might or might not know, all media here in China report the official news, and I for one have trouble believing most of it.
There is no voice at all defending Taiwans position as a seperate nation.
So, hearing all this one-sided stuff about the 'one China, two systems policy' and Mr. Chen's 'seperatist' actions, and China warning the USA and any others not to interfere with China's 'internal' affairs, I really wonder how it is on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.
So, I think, maybe here, I can ask you guys about what the Taiwanese really think about their situation?
Do they realise how real the possibility is of military action against them?
Over here, most people, whether they have an own opinion or not, will support the government whatever it says. If they don't they will face the consequences after all.
Now, China's military really is quite outdated, but the numbers man! If it comes to a confrontation, it will be the bloodiest thing in years.
I don't think the Chinese will wage war for this for at least 10 years more.
The general mood is that since it's going so well here now, nobody wants to rock the boat and change this.
So, political opposition is small, Chinese self esteem is rising every day (now with the asian cup thing especially), the bubble is just getting bigger and bigger and when it pops people hope the economy will be strong enough to sustain its quality of life in the major cities.
But is it my imagination that China is more and more gearing up for somekind of solution for the Taiwan issue? It could be capitulation for the Taiwanese or something more violent.
Now, I'm not so sure when it will happen, it could be sooner than people think though.
It would be great to hear something from the other side for a change, so thanks in advance for any replies.
all the best,
Da Jiang
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Aristotle

Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Posts: 1388 Location: Taiwan
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Posted: Sat Aug 07, 2004 8:51 am Post subject: |
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Taiwan is an island surrounded by water. China's only strength is that it has the largest Army in the world. How are they going to get here? Swim?
The PRC has no navy to speak of. The Chinese have never successfully launched a major attack over water in their entire history.
They can't even pull off a naval blockade without getting their asses kicked and navy sunk.
Are they going to airdrop 1 billion troops on Taiwan?
The only way the PRC will get Taiwan back is to buy it lock, stock and 1 corrupt politician at a time. |
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MTurton

Joined: 10 Mar 2004 Posts: 107
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Posted: Sun Aug 08, 2004 12:46 am Post subject: |
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Quote: |
So, hearing all this one-sided stuff about the 'one China, two systems policy' and Mr. Chen's 'seperatist' actions, and China warning the USA and any others not to interfere with China's 'internal' affairs, I really wonder how it is on the other side of the Taiwan Strait. |
It's really complex. The Taiwan military is dominated by mainlanders who at heart are pro-China and may just go over to the Chinese should they get troops over here. The local Taiwanese all hate the Chinese passionately, though you have to live here a while and be alert for stray comments to really understand that. Their hate is well-concealed.
Taiwan's defense posture is dictated by its absurd political roles and ambitions. On one hand the US urges it to buy expensive weapons it doesn't need and can't fully use. On the other hand, it must defend Kinmen and Matsu, which would be an easy snack for China, and also a few islands in the South China Sea. China permits it to keep Kinmen and Matsu because without them, there would be no geographic connection to the mainland at all.
The US has not pledged to defend the island, although many people, including many locals, erroneously believe it has. However, politics demands that it intervene should cross-strait hostilities commence. The US is obligated under international law to defend Taiwan (Taiwan is technically a US protectorate, dating back to the post-war agreements, and all Taiwanese should have US passports) but nobody on either side officially recognizes that obligation. Instead, the US touts the TRA, which does not obligate the US to defend the island.
What Taiwan (and the US) will do military in response to a Chinese invasion is anyone's guess. While Aristotle is right to recognize that China's conventional sealift capabilities are limited, a combined operation to put paratroops on the Taiwan island, along with troops in fishing boats (it's only a few hours ride from Fukien to Taiwan) would probably win through. Once the Chinese had a beachhead, the mainlander officer corps would go over to them.
MTurton |
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logician
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 Posts: 70
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Posted: Sun Aug 08, 2004 11:45 am Post subject: |
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MTurton wrote: |
On the other hand, it must defend Kinmen and Matsu, which would be an easy snack for China, and also a few islands in the South China Sea. China permits it to keep Kinmen and Matsu because without them, there would be no geographic connection to the mainland at all.
What Taiwan (and the US) will do military in response to a Chinese invasion is anyone's guess. While Aristotle is right to recognize that China's conventional sealift capabilities are limited, a combined operation to put paratroops on the Taiwan island, along with troops in fishing boats (it's only a few hours ride from Fukien to Taiwan) would probably win through. Once the Chinese had a beachhead, the mainlander officer corps would go over to them.
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If the officers went over but the NCOs and troops didn't, there would be an interesting situation.
Would Japan and Korea be inclined to take action if China occupied Taiwan? I think the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands are still a matter of dispute between Japan and China. (Maybe those are the islands in the South China Sea that you mentioned.) Japan might be able to claim self-defense if it fired on Chinese troops being sea-lifted to Taiwan.
South Korea is not being mentioned as a possible source of intervention in any news source I have seen. Personally, I think the Koreans are militarily formidable and might offer support to Taiwan, but that's just my guess, and I'm not an expert.
Many experts claim that a guerrilla campaign could not be sustained in Taiwan after invasion. I think it could be done, but I don't know of any state actors who would be motivated to do so.
Certainly the presence of organized crime in Taiwan could cut either way. The U.S., when invading Italy, used organized crime groups as puppets. China might be able to do the same thing. Alternatively, those same crime groups could be a thorn in the side of the invasion.
But if China found itself overstretched in the middle of a Taiwan invasion and suffered a loss of order in Hong Kong and Shanghai -- wouldn't that weaken the PRC horribly? Regardless of the loss of diplomatic status, China could face internal dangers from separatists.
According to :
http://www.lewrockwell.com/lind/lind11.html
even the U.S. is suffering from generational shift and relying on mercenaries. If Lind and van Creveld are right, China's political power is imperilled by separatist movements on the mainland more than by the de facto separatism of Taiwan. Of course, Lind is not necessarily right... |
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Horizontal Hero

Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2492 Location: The civilised little bit of China.
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Posted: Sun Aug 08, 2004 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.lewrockwell.com/lind/lind11.html
The link is blocked from the mainland (of course). As the original poster ststed, I wonder if the Taiwanese, and ex-pats in Taiwan realise how savage the anti-Taiwan propaganda is here? Barely a day goes by when some military guy or CPC leader doesn't vow to crush the Tawain traitors. And the Chinese public are brainwashed from day one to agree - they see Taiwan as Chinese and the separatists as evil. No logic can dissuade them - and I have yet to meet a SINGLE Chinese person who did not hold EXACTLY the same view on the Taiwan issue as the Beijing authorities. The Chinese are simply incapable of independent thought. As the Beijing press releases say: "It is the determined will of 1.3 billion Chinese people that Taiwan be returned to the maionland. "The Chinese population just do not have the cognitive tools to analyse the situation - they are like Beijing-automated puppets. They are also fed a daily diet of lies about Taiwan. You might be interested in the following, which a widely believed in China.
Chen has few supporters in Taiwan, but hires people to support him.
Most Taiwanese want reunification with China, and only the evil Taiwan government is stopping them.
The Taiwan government has brainwashed the people to be against China (how ironic is that? - they think the government runs the media)
Taiwan democracy is a farce and Chen orchestrates it so he gets the votes. (i.e Chinese totalitarianism is much preferable).
The Japanese and Taiwanese are in it together (I don't know if there is some truth in that one or not).
Taiwan is on the verge of economic ruin, and only the loving embrace of the motherland can save her.
Military victory over the puny Taiwanese would be very easy.
Taiwan has always been a part of China since ancient times (we here that everyday in the media).
So, see the kind of logic you are up against? (by the way I lived in Taiwan for a few year before coming to China) |
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Libertarian
Joined: 05 Apr 2003 Posts: 313 Location: Future Republic of Taiwan
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Posted: Sun Aug 08, 2004 6:53 pm Post subject: |
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I know what you mean HH, I couldn`t believe how much anti-Chen, anti-Taiwan propaganda is drilled into their collective minds during my sojourn in China. I don`t even think Goebbels could top it.
I think most Taiwanese are aware of how China uses it`s media control to brainwash the masses. Many Taiwanese just shake their heads and sigh at the Chinese inability to recite anything other than the "official line". |
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dajiang

Joined: 13 May 2004 Posts: 663 Location: Guilin!
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Posted: Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:50 am Post subject: |
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you guys reckon foreign investment would pull out of the mainland out of 'sympathy' or for safety reasons? Or would would all morals and ethics be set aside for the greater glory of money, profits and other interests?
Can China be tossed out of the WTO?
Can they cancel the Olympics?
...
Anyway, I've had it here. I'm flying 'home' tomorrow!
It's been nice, had a great one and a half years... Met great people, had amazing experiences, and I've even talked honestly with some brave souls that opposed the mainlands government. (there are plenty, just gotta look hard to find them, and harder to get them to talk... of course never in a classroom.)
It really is a beautiful country, but overall, one day the shit is gonna hit the fan, and I'm not gonna be around to see the pieces flying...
Hope the gf can leave the country before then.
We'll see eh? |
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Chairman Roberto

Joined: 04 Mar 2003 Posts: 150 Location: Taibei, Taiwan
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Posted: Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:09 am Post subject: |
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Good thread, fellas. A nice break from the usual trolls vs. people who react to trolls.
Anyway, let me put in my NT$2. I lived in the Mainland for a year, and I heard all the same rhetoric...Taiwan is part of China, it must be reunited with the Mother country, blah blah blah. But there's one thing that even the most brainwashed, ignornant bumpkin knows (and Lord knows, I hung out with a few...I lived in rural Hunan), and it's a fact that supercedes even the most ardent Goebbels-inspired thought control.
Taiwan remains far and away the wealthiest "part" of China, and everyone knows it. Everyone thinks that all Taiwanese are rich, and no wonder...the Taiwanese coming here DO have a lot of cash when they convert their currency to Mainland living expenses.
Before I left, all my students, friends, and whoever else asked me where I was going. I got the most disappointed, embarassed, and uncomfortable looks when I told them "Taiwan." And we all knew the score. Taiwan's salary is so astronomically higher than China's that why would any foreigner want to live in the Mainland? Actually, I did love living in the Mainland, and I do hope to return to live and work there someday, but this intangible affection is not something many Chinese can understand.
What the Chinese do understand, whether they're a slick entrepenuer from Shenzhen or growing eggplants in Hunan, is cold hard cash. And if these laowais are drifting by the dozens to Taiwan, and Taiwan's salary is easily 4 to 5 times what you get in Mainland, obviously something's not computing with "how miserable" Taiwanese people are.
I found many Mainlanders were quite aware their media outlets were full of it. They can hear 24-7 how awful things are in Taiwan, but all it takes is one foreigner to tell them their salary (you know, it's the second question you always get--"How much do you make?") to explode all myths they have about this "renegade province." The whole SARS fiasco certainly didn't help the government's already faltering credibility.
Will China attack Taiwan? I would say probably not. I believe that the men in charge..Hu and Jiang...are both too involved financially with Taiwan, be it through tax revenues or personal investments. Again, money is the bottom line here, and no amount of saber rattling is going to change that.
alrighty then,
The Chairman! |
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Horizontal Hero

Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2492 Location: The civilised little bit of China.
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Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2004 11:45 am Post subject: |
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Interesting perspective, Mr Chairman. Actually I was wondering what happend to you on the China forum. I have the opposite experience to you - I began in Taiwan, and went to China. But in three days time I'll be in Hong Kong to start a new job. I just thought I might as well get a good look at all of "One China".  |
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