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Voyeur
Joined: 03 Jul 2012 Posts: 431
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Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:31 am Post subject: Chinese Economy, Demographics, and ESL Market |
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So the Chinese economy has slowed a lot, and may slow down even more. The years ahead are very uncertain. Furthermore, China is aging fast and the number of potential ESL students is likely decreasing quickly.
Eventually, all of this should have some impact on the ESL Job market. Has anyone seen any signs of this already?
As most veterans know, different countries have been the best ESL destination for periods, and then surrendered the title. The reasons why a country ESL market goes down the toilet are complex and perhaps unique to each country--though there may be some common elements.
I was in Korea from 2003 to 2011, and when I left, Jobs were paying the same as when I started--often with more work and hours. By that point, Japan had already given way to Korea. Is China next to be dethroned? What country is the next ESL hot spot? |
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coffeespoonman
Joined: 04 Feb 2005 Posts: 512 Location: At my computer...
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Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:17 am Post subject: |
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Unless my limited perspective here is way off, I think you're underestimating the scale here. Things may have slowed down, but by international standards, growth is still massive. The population may be aging, but they've recently made the one-child policy a two-child policy, and that means that prospective young learners are very soon going to start taking English classes in their kindergartens - not that there is currently any shortage of children in those kindergartens now.
My Sino-Western university increases its student intake every year. 2017-18 is looking at close to 4000, and that's nowhere near the number of applicants. From my perspective, I don't see the ESL market here slowing down any time soon. It will slow down, sure. But I think this will be a seller's market for some time yet. |
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JoThomas
Joined: 08 Jan 2017 Posts: 148 Location: Canada
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Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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The Chinese job market is very much booming. I know for a fact that there are more international schools in China than anywhere else. There are also thousands of ESL jobs that I know of in Beijing and elsewhere. I believe the problem is that the Chinese government is tightening their regulations and adding more and more paperwork which makes it more difficult and time consuming to come and even stay in China (even if you switch cities).
If you are in the big cities it is very possible to get 300-400 rmb an hour to private tutor. That is big money if you tutor quite often. I was tutoring five days a week after school at one point.
I also lived in Korea for four years and I never made that much tutoring per hour. The salaries in Korea have remained stagnant since 2006 when I was there and more and more people are jumping ship to China. I think the salaries have remained stagnant in Japan for ESL teachers as well. |
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Tazz
Joined: 26 Sep 2013 Posts: 512 Location: Jakarta
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:39 am Post subject: |
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| Government policy with regards to hiring foreigners plays a big part. the regulations have made Indonesia an almost 'no-go' destination for foreign ESL teachers during the past 4-5 years. The process for obtaining a work visa is so arduous and long that even the truly qualified with QTS status back home will refrain from working there. China's constantly changing regulations are baffling, and the fact that regulations vary from one district to another makes it even more perplexing..... |
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The bear
Joined: 16 Aug 2015 Posts: 483
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:30 am Post subject: |
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| Tazz wrote: |
| Government policy with regards to hiring foreigners plays a big part. the regulations have made Indonesia an almost 'no-go' destination for foreign ESL teachers during the past 4-5 years. The process for obtaining a work visa is so arduous and long that even the truly qualified with QTS status back home will refrain from working there. China's constantly changing regulations are baffling, and the fact that regulations vary from one district to another makes it even more perplexing..... |
I can see the government policies putting a large number of people off. Not that it's overly arduous, just that it's a maze and the information and advice is hit and miss.
Just look at these forum posts over the last few months, lots and lots on the same topic - jumping through the hoops to come to China.
I've said this often enough, but I predict a rise in the number of foreign teachers on the wrong visa. Especially student teachers at language schools. |
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nomad soul

Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Posts: 11454 Location: The real world
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:50 am Post subject: |
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| Tazz wrote: |
| The process for obtaining a work visa is so arduous and long that even the truly qualified with QTS status back home will refrain from working there. |
I doubt job seekers choose their destination based mainly on a country's visa process. Those teachers whose target is China (for whatever their reason) will jump through those hoops. Besides, not everyone finds the visa process arduous; other countries have similar requirements. Frankly, going through the employment process in the US can be just as "challenging." |
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getbehindthemule
Joined: 15 Oct 2015 Posts: 712 Location: Shanghai
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:08 am Post subject: |
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Interesting topic.
As mentioned previously (two child poilicy), there is a huge demand for teachers of young learners atm and this will only continue to grow.
However as far as job security goes, this is another matter. It's not too much of an exaggeration to say that we could all be kicked out of China at any time!
As you put it Voyeur - 'The years ahead are very uncertain'. Indeed! |
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tellersquill
Joined: 08 Apr 2016 Posts: 94
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:34 am Post subject: |
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| nomad soul wrote: |
| Tazz wrote: |
| The process for obtaining a work visa is so arduous and long that even the truly qualified with QTS status back home will refrain from working there. |
I doubt job seekers choose their destination based mainly on a country's visa process. Those teachers whose target is China (for whatever their reason) will jump through those hoops. Besides, not everyone finds the visa process arduous; other countries have similar requirements. Frankly, going through the employment process in the US can be just as "challenging." |
We do, or at least I do. One of the major turn offs about China is all the faffing that comes with getting a visa. It certainly makes southeast asia a lot more alluring. |
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JoThomas
Joined: 08 Jan 2017 Posts: 148 Location: Canada
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| Tazz wrote: |
| Government policy with regards to hiring foreigners plays a big part. the regulations have made Indonesia an almost 'no-go' destination for foreign ESL teachers during the past 4-5 years. The process for obtaining a work visa is so arduous and long that even the truly qualified with QTS status back home will refrain from working there. China's constantly changing regulations are baffling, and the fact that regulations vary from one district to another makes it even more perplexing..... |
No offense, but it isn't even the strict regulations that keeps me away from Indonesia. |
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Voyeur
Joined: 03 Jul 2012 Posts: 431
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Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:41 am Post subject: |
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I think people may be underestimating the potential for China's economy to really go into the dumps over the next few years. The CCP has a lot of power to kick the can down the road, but eventually things will have to catch up to them.
Demographics are already having an effect. And going to a two-child policy may not have that much of an impact going forward--even unfettered, most Chinese won't have two kids.
I was curious if anyone had felt any effects yet, but it may be too soon. And China is a huge, very opaque teaching market. There's little standardization of hours and salaries. So even if the overall market for teachers has already begin to feel adverse effects, it might be a lot harder to see it than would be the case in smaller countries.
Time will tell. |
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HeidiHector
Joined: 10 May 2017 Posts: 36 Location: China
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Posted: Tue May 16, 2017 12:27 am Post subject: |
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I actually think that with Donald Trump in office, many students will opt to stay in China at Sino-Foreign partnership schools, which will mean a lot of work for us. (If anything, there are many opening up as we speak.)
Of course, many will opt to go to Canada, Australia, the UK, etc., but remember that the US university market is huge so there will still be many who are not absorbed by them. |
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jaybet3
Joined: 15 Dec 2010 Posts: 140 Location: Indonesia
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Posted: Tue May 16, 2017 4:19 am Post subject: |
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I live in Indonesia and agree with the posts. There is very little work there and the government has a negative bias towards hiring foreigners.
In regards to the application process, I've worked in Indonesia, Malaysia and China and found them all to be the same. Yes, it's sometimes a painful experience, but once you have all the proper documents you let the process run it's course.
It's my first year in China, but I don't see any sign of the demand shrinking. I get a wechat message about twice per month from schools needing teachers for Part-time/Full-Time work. I wish I had more hours
in the day to scoop up that extra money.
And don't be afraid to negotiate your contracts and ask for more money. If the school/client wants you, they will pay. |
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RiverMystic
Joined: 13 Jan 2009 Posts: 1986
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Posted: Wed May 17, 2017 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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I can't see too many problems for qualified teachers in China in the near future. The number of foreigners in China has dropped dramatically, including in the ESL industry and education in general. Many schools are now short of teachers. Unless they loosen up the visa restrictions, that isn't going to change. The one big issue might be social instability in the event of a major economic turndown.
| HeidiHector wrote: |
I actually think that with Donald Trump in office, many students will opt to stay in China at Sino-Foreign partnership schools, which will mean a lot of work for us. (If anything, there are many opening up as we speak.)
Of course, many will opt to go to Canada, Australia, the UK, etc., but remember that the US university market is huge so there will still be many who are not absorbed by them. |
Given that Trump is friendly to China and the local Chinese press have been very positive about Trump, I see zero reason to believe what you say to be true. It is interesting to compare the sheer, stark-raving mad propaganda about Trump coming coming out of the Western liberal media, and the calm, rational takes you get in the Chinese media. It's interesting what happens when the media actually reports the news, and does not try to shove ideology down your throat. How times have changed, especially in the west. Our media is now the worst in the world, thanks to all the brainwashed graduates streaming out of journalism schools and liberal arts universities in the past decade. |
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