Job Discussion Forums

[moonraven]

It's "coup d'etat"--but here in Latin America it's "golpe de estado". Whatever you call it, it is an enormous blow to the fragile institutions of Mexico.

What Guy may not know, as he's pretty new to these parts, is that the middle class that he is using as a bellwether is MUCH smaller than it was when I came to Mexico--just before Salinas' artificial fixed exchange rate of the peso vs. the dollar unravelled. Many middle class folks lost just about everything, especially their homes, as interest rates were not fixed and quickly soared to more than 100%. 1995 was one of the worst years in Mexico's long history of crisis years for just about everybody. This bird was perversely lucky, as she had a stash of dollars in a safe deposit box that allowed her to work only part time for about 6 months and still be relatively comfortable.

Guy talks about Mexico City's middle class--which barely exists in the provinces. In my home base--devastated traditionally agrarian Morelos, things are quite grim. A year ago the results of a quick survey in Cuautla (considered to be a "relatively prosperous commercial center") showed that over 60% of telephones were disconnected for non-payment.

The reality is that the peso was 3.30 to the dollar when I came to Mexico. It was 8 something when Fox took office. The only reason it is right around 11 now is that the dollar has taken a beating against the Euro.

During the Fox sexenio the only folks who have prospered are his compinches.

I highly recommend that folks start reading PROCESO every week. It also has a somewhat limited wedsite. Information is power if you are deciding to come to Mexico--or stay.

[seanie]

In general I'm in favour of "respect for the law", but contempt of court is a far cry from, say, student massacres.

On an earlier thread, Moonraven said that she thought AMLO would become prez next year; but doesn't the desafuero mean that he'll be forced to sit this one out and wait until 2012?

To the original poster, I wouldn't let any of this change my plans. I've lived in Mexico for about 7 years (not continuously) and lived through the last three presidential elections. Even in 1988 (when there was an electoral crisis), I didn't get a sense of the country unravelling. (I was an exchange student then so my perpective may have been somewhat flawed )

[moonraven]

Seanie:

Yesterday the congress took away AMLO's immunity. That's all. He has not been formally charged, tried or convicted. If he were to be convicted, then his presidential aspirations would be dimmed. Maybe.

But until then, they are perhaps brighter than ever.

Incidentally, I am not am AMLO fan. The guy has NO sense of humor--and that's a critical need right now. (It's one of the reasons that Hugo Chavez' popularity is growing world-wide--he has a tongue that can cut glass, but he's also very funny--and can laugh at himself.) What I don't like is watching the rigging of someone for stealing a loaf of bread--possibly (AMLO as Jean Valjean?)--when the guys in the federal government are stealing EVERYTHING, including the windfall petroleum profits! Les miserables: somos nosotros.

[Guy Courchesne]

AMLO made several references to Salinas in his speech. Indeed, there is a crook.

While I wasn't here in 95, I've talked with a lot of people about it, including my Mexican family. I remember that in 2000, when I arrived here, people were on edge when Fox took power, fully epxecting another sextenio debacle with the books. When the crisis didn't come, people took it to mean that finally, finally, with a PAN government, there would be no more corruption. We'll find out soon enough...

These crises always come at a presidencial switch. I hold out hope, as do many financial institutions, international companies, foreign investors, and large banks (bad company, I know) that Mexico is not headed for another financial crisis. FDI is stable, interest rates are the lowest they have been in years, Mexico's credit rating is stable and getting better. Individual credit is becoming more available, at more competitive rates. Concerns of the middle class.

I think we need to establish a difference between political and economic instability. In the past, the two have gone hand-in-hand. I think and hope that that will not happen for 2006 as it didn't happen for 2000.

It certainly is different outside of Mexico City. The capital, with close to 30% of the population, is the engine of economic activity of this country. From what I've seen, the other hubs, Guadalajara and Monterrey have not prospered as well as DF. Smaller centers dependent on agriculture are suffering, yes. Mexico is not alone in this respect and would do well to join the G20 headed by Brasil and India in order to level the playing field. Mexico competes with the US subsidies perhaps more directly than most bilateral relationships given the proximity and integration of this sector. Mexico needs agricultural reform. It needs to modernize. Subsistence farming simply doesn't work if leaders are taking this country into a service based economy like that of its northern neighbors.

Since Salinas, this country has been on a path to stronger integration with Canada and the US, through free trade. PAN and PRI follow that, and I would bet that even a PRD government would follow the same. AMLO as president might be good to temper the worst of "globalization", but anything too right-wing or too left-wing is not what this country needs. Mexico seems to be only now experiencing democracy in that compromise in Congress, and a strong and independent judiciary is still needed. Funny, to have Fox get little done over 5 years is a strong indicator that the process is under way. I said earlier that Mexico is a hard ship to steer in turbulent waters.

[Julieanne]

I have to agree with Guy completely. Actually this Presidential term has enjoyed the most stability ever seen in Mexico, meaning one step closer to a first world. Some Mexicans don't like it because they didn't have those 3 good years where inflation was extreme and you could grab all the money and then sleep for the next 3 years. The only thing unstable would be to introduce a third party in the mix that may I mention was only popular in Mexico City and not the rest of the country. The only thing causing a crisis for 2006 is people saying there will be a crisis. All this AMLO will be forgotten soon. You can't say that Fox is any comparison of extreme right-wing as the Bush administration. I don't see Fox as a Bible thumper. He has actually been very advanced with linking the country to the Internet and what happened with AMLO was actually a victory for capatalism and the route that Mexicans want to take. Remember capatilism is really great the first 100 years. So we will be here to enjoy it and when we are long gone, Mexico will have its own Enron scandal!!!
By the way the New York Times and other media in States is only writing the negative.

[moonraven]

Look, everybody's entitled to his or her opinion, but please do a little research first, folks.

Fox's government is even MORE right wing than that of Bush--especially as more and more honchos of El Yunque and Opus Dei have been given cabinet positions and sub-secretariats. Those folks are especially hand in glove with Martha Sahagun. Right wing operations such as Pro Vida are still in the process of audits for what they have done with the millions they have received from Fox's government.

If you do a bit of research you will find that this term has not been the most stable in Mexico's history. Stability, in conventional terms, of course is not even necessarily desirable if it is the persistence of poverty. Porfirio D�az was in power for about 30 years--and that period of "stability" ended in 1910 with the Mexican Revolution. Some of us even feel that the revolution should be finished.

The bottom line here is that the biggest problem in Latin America--and in the world--is precisely the persistence of poverty. Any government not seeking to face that reality head on and give it first priority is simply going to sit back and watch it increase its cancerous activity.

As for the ludicrous comment about Mexico being one step closer to the First World--which was the slogan of the Salinas administration from 1988 to 1994 (when the EZLN appeared, two PRI leaders were gunned down, and the Error of December brought everybody into contact with a very different reality--both politically and economically)--it is only closer in the sense that more Mexican people are risking their lives in the Arizona desert even as I write this. If that's the process that you consider moving Mexico closer to the First World, we have nothing to say to each other.

[Guy Courchesne]

Progress comes in fits and starts. There are probably many paths that Mexico could take towards 'enlightenment' (to avoid using other terms). Mexico clearly has a lot of work cut out for it, and when I say Mexico, I mean every single Mexican. It's certainly not going to happen overnight.

Moonraven, what kind of Mexico do you want to see in the future? I want to see one that respects the rights of all, the has responsible leadership, a clear division of powers between the executive, the legislative, and the judiciary, and the freedom to be able to pursue one's individual dreams. Lofty, and idealistic, so I won't expect that just yet. In fact, I'd be hard pressed to find a single country on the planet that meets that ideal.

I notice that as I age, I am becoming more conservative. I think at this point in my life, I've become more concerned with the responsibilities of the individual, and more suspiscious of leadership that tries to solve everyone's problems, which to me seems a type of narcotic to remedy the angst of being personally responsible for choice. This is why I dislike AMLO, and populism in general.

[moonraven]

Guy, I thought I had made my vision fairly clear, but maybe not....

I want to see a Mexico without poverty, and I really don't care how that comes about in the political sense. It's an extremely rich country--but the riches are in about 20 pockets--and the rest of the pockets only have holes in them.

The same goes for the entire world we are living in.

I find it shameful that Fatuous Fox speaks these words from Rome--where he went to the pope's funeral--"The legislature's vote in favor of stripping AMLO of his immunity has given the world an example".

An example of what: How to defenestrate your rivals?

[MixtecaMike]

[Guy Courchesne]

Moonraven, what I meant was this.

I know that you write about agrarian reform. I think, from your posts, that you travel about other parts of Latin America and I assume that you are active in pursuing this reform. Everyone wants to see a Mexico, indeed a world, without poverty. So my question is how, politically, do you envision that for Mexico? Land redistribution? Something along the lines of devloving power to the rural or civic level? Help me out here with an idea. I'm not overly familiar with alternate forms of government, and tend to put my faith in democracy, perhaps parliamentary types like Canada and the UK. Or do you mean something else?

[Julieanne]

Well, Moonraven I definitely have to disagree with everything you are saying. There is not a more right-wing government today than Bush and I can say that with confidence because by far the most dangerous religious group are Christian Evangelists for the very reason they became this is because they had skeletons in their closets and decided "oh now I will be a good person" but a leopard does not change its spots. Try to remember Jim Bakker scandal and currently have a look at Tom Delay in the US Senate, threatening judges because he didn't get his way. Hypocrites that "value life" but drop bombs on Iraquis. So Martha can promote Opus Dei etc. but they are not half as scary as those people. Nobody pushes their ideas more on people than born agains, and they try to make people believe that since they have been "bad" you also have been "bad"
To get back to Mexico going towards First World status, of course that is a long way away. But as you confirmed yourself of all the poverty here, it can't be done overnight, and the answer is not by having a Socialist government handing things out to the poor, because they will not improve their life with that. The key is only in education first. The dinosaurs in education have to go and I will be the first to say "Wake up" TEC University stinks!!!! How do I know? Ask me and I will give you a long list of reasons. So if a country's best University is a crock, where do we begin?
By the way Guy, since I am also Canadian, I have to disagree about having a system like Canada, here. American free market and capatilism is the only way. If you went to the market here 10 years ago, you could only get Bimbo bread and Gamesa cookies, not to mention TELMEX was the only phone system (it still pretty much is) Mexico has improved because of opening up competition, which has also improved in the intellect of the average Mexican, that competition is a good thing!! Something they do not promote in schools.
Moonraven, you may feel you have done more research than me , but I am observant and I don't live in a fantasyland that says "oh all the poor in Mexico" they can better their lives with a free market not government handouts. This is a rich country in resources, tourism etc. and there is no reason people should be poor here.

[Guy Courchesne]

Hmm...not so sure I buy the free market and capitalism line. Such a system has already proven itself to be a failure in eliminating poverty. Check up on the UN's human development index for proof of that. 'Only the strong shall survive' may work in the Darwinian world of plants and animals, but we should be able to do better than that. http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/

Disparity between rich and poor is most evident in countries, including the US, that are the most 'market-free' and capitalistic. Countries that have the least disparity are socialist, such as the Scandanavian countries, and Canada, which you and I know is a half-assed socialist state.

I agree that handouts to the poor are the wrong way to go, and that education should be a top priority to better empower people in Mexico.

[moonraven]

Well, Guy I just spent an hour writing a very detailed reply to your question which when I posted it, did not post, but flew off into the ether someplace. I am not about to reconstruct all that information about agrarian reform for you�sorry. If you are serious about it, and are willing to read an article I wrote in Spanish and gave presentations from in 2003 and 2004, pm me your e-mail and I will send it to you in a day or so.

I am going to put things in a nutshell, but first, a word to Julieanne, who has attributed a WHOLE s�tload of statements to me that I have NEVER made on this forum or in any other venue. If you can show me where I have 1) recommended handouts as the solution and 2) supported the educational system in Mexico, I will vote for YOU for president! And for you, a Canadian�with a socialized health care system that�s one of the best in the world�to talk about �handouts�, instead of entitlements is simply beyond my comprehension.

The nutshell, for me, contains pretty much the kind of projects that are being implemented in Venezuela: agrarian reform is in Phase 2 now, after redistributing several million hectares of government-owned land in 2003 and 2004�but it�s only one part of a fairly comprehensive program which involves creation of infrastructure (housing, roads to get products from rural areas to markets, railroads�a project with China�factories operated by cooperatives and joint development projects emphasizing endogenous growth with Spain, France, Iran, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, among others), elimination of illiteracy and creation of schools at all levels with access in the form of scholarships from a foundation started by Ch�vez in 1999 with deposits of his salary checks, free health care due to an interchange with Cuba, creation of public markets with reduced prices for low-income consumers, formation of cooperatives in both rural and urban areas, not to mention active organization of the people so that they really participate in their democracy. (Venezuela is the only country in Latin America where democracy is seen as a desirable form of government�more than 70 percent of the people feel that way�compared to very low percentages in all the other countries, who would rather have a dictatorship if it improved their economic conditions.) PDVSA (the petroleum company) profits bankroll any of these projects, but profits are also put back into PDVSA to make it more efficient�and education is the hub of the wheel for everything else.

Now, contrast what�s happening in Venezuela to what�s happening in Mexico: zero attention to agriculture on the part of the government, government housing paid for by employers and workers that falls down around people�s ears, no attention to infrastructure indicated by bankrupt highway system, bankrupt sugarcane refineries, zero new business development and consequently zero growth in PIB, active encouragement of the informal sector which produces zero tax revenues at any governmental level, encouragement of illiteracy (Fox told a campesino that it was just as well that he was illiterate because he could get his info from t.v.), a huge and corrupt public education bureaucracy that produces students at the bottom of the list of the OCDE-surveyed countries EVERY year, severe cutbacks in government sponsored scholarships through CONACYT, the highest presidential salary in the world!!!!, bankrupt public health care systems, termination of the programs that used to subsidize basic products for low-income consumers (CONASUPO and others), no attention to the civil society, handouts in the form of public monies being given to the TEC (there I agree with Julieanne that it�s a crock, but what she apparently is not aware of is that the only Mexican university on the list of the world�s best is the much-maligned and ill-funded UNAM), Pro Vida, Martita�s family�and other right wing groups, with a few tots for tots photo ops for the support of Vamos Martita. And no dedication of windfall petroleum profits to bring PEMEX up to snuff. The solution of the PAN and most of the PRI: sell PEMEX and CFE to the Bush Gang.

Under these circumstances, why wouldn�t the civil society of Mexico prefer AMLO?

One last comment for Julieanne: Your observational skills are those of watching propaganda on t.v. I am not the one living in a fantasyland; if you think Walmart and Wonder Bread have improved the intellect of the Mexican people, there is something radically wrong with yours.

[Guy Courchesne]

My email is accesible from my profile. Please send it.

Some of the biggest fights in trade negotiations are government subsidies, especially to agriculture. I think there are two routes to go, and very little room for compromise...open or closed. If a country desires to export agricultural goods to others, but subsidizes the sector heavily, other countries surely have a right to complain, raise tariffs, or blocks that country's exports to protect their own sector. I do believe that a nation's food supply is of vital importance, but all countries export, indeed, many countries must import certain foods to survive. It would be difficult, if not impossible for any one country to completely turn inwards in this sense, and not expect other countries to shield themselves from heavily subsidized foreign products. and the cycle continues...

And what about oil? Mexico and Venezuela are fotunate sons to have the resource, but it's Evil Uncle Sam who's paying most of the bill. How Mexico and Venezuela spend revenues is an internal affair, but let's remember where the dollars come from.

[Julieanne]

Well this has become very interesting. First I don't think that Moonraven should focus on Martha's Pro Vida, of course that is the route they will follow since this is afterall still a Catholic country. Blame the Pope for that, the old one and whomever will be the new one. So lets get off that because it doesn't prove to me extreme right wingism. Its just a Catholic country. Now obviously Moonraven you have done your homework but I don't get my ideas from TV, because there is no TV here and guess why that is?!?!?! Not enough free market!!!
Sorry Guy, but that is why I left Canada. The system is excellent for people arriving in Canada from impovershed countries but the Government becomes your daddy. And just like your daddy when you ask things from him, you also have to answer to him. That is fine for people that want that protection. But not for people who don't need that security, not financially I am referring to but people that bought tons of water bottles in Canada on Dec. 31st 1999, those people like the system.
They are scared of their own shadow. I would hate to see that here in Mexico. Yes, Guy capatalism has it flaws but the US has been running like a machine for the last 100 years and unfortunately the problem is that nobody knows what to do when capatalism gets out of hand. As I said that would not initially be the problem for Mexico unless 100 years from now they have not solved this problem. Walmart and Wonder Bread??? It sure has opened people eyes, look a little closer to my meaning and don't be just looking at the surface of my comment. Their expectations have gotten higher and they are not accepting to eat stale cookies in ridiculous cardboard boxes. With expectations growing so does motivation and ones desire to prosper. Moonraven you seem to be very educated but very stubborn.