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jonjack · Joined: 05 Apr 2005 Posts: 34 Location: Canada

Japan and Germany have never done enough confessing let alone apologising to make me happy and we all know that issues concerning the way they "paint" there own histories in their domestic school history texts.

The difference though is that Japan is the only country to have undergone
judgemment by nuclear weapon. It is important to note that only Asians have been on the receiving end of such a horrific and inhumane weapon and it is taught and stated exactly that way by Asian scholars today both in Asia and in North America.

The Japanese people have shown tremendous strength of character by not holding on to what might have been "the grudge" of the century, (sorry about the pun).

The Japanese cannot and will not defend Taiwan because there is nothing in it for them and it would quickly undue decades of hardwork they undertook to become a credible and trustworthy, leading regional partner.

America on the other hand may defend Taiwan passively, assertively or not at all depending on their priorities and situation at the time.

In strategic terms--

In a nuclear show down, defending Taiwan could mean swapping Los Angeles for Beijing and no one wants to even think about something like that let alone evaluate it intellegently.

America is committed to defending Taiwan but their motivation is limited and cannot compare with a re-unification type of nationalistic motivation.

There is little to no danger if the status quo continues, so why does Beijing seem to be under preasure over the issue?????

Beijing's internal politics have trapped it in a position where delivering the re-unification of the nation, ie Hong Kong check, Macau check, Taiwan pending is a large part of their responsibility to the people as part of a legitimate national mandate now.

They will likely not act too soon because if they attempt to take Taiwan and fail, there would be a definite coup in Beijing and possibly a revolution or some kind of major civil unrest.

Losing a war with America or Taiwan would destroy their credibility completely and at all levels in the eyes of their 1.3 billion constituents.

This brings us back to my earlier posting if it is still there, (see above), China cannot and will not act until its war room, war machine and logistical supports are exercised to a high level of competence.

Washington knows this and works overtime trying to prevent European arms sales to China because they would accelerate China's military development in this regards.

Alternative Opinions are welcome...

/JJ

P.S. What happened to Aristotle?

TaoyuanSteve · Joined: 05 Feb 2003 Posts: 1028 Location: Taoyuan

jonjack · Joined: 05 Apr 2005 Posts: 34 Location: Canada

Why does it mattering to me so much matter to you so much.

Exactly.

Now why dont you agree, disagree or in some way shape or form respond to my post so we can talk about something as opposed to nothing?

/JJ

logician · Joined: 15 Jan 2004 Posts: 70

jonjack · Joined: 05 Apr 2005 Posts: 34 Location: Canada

What are you talking about in the Germany, Japan tirade.

When people talk about apologising and admissions we are referring to governments and institutions, not individual citizens. Do you really think we expect Germans to board a plane in Hamburg, fly to Paris then go door to door apologising.

Meanwhile big news in Hong Kong and China. Just yesterday there were attacks on the Japanese embassy in Beijing followed by vandalism of Japanese department stores and restaurants in various places. This means that there is such as thing as socio-cultural memory and the perpetuation of hatred and historical animosities from generation to generation.

I also do not understand your dramatic statements of personal shame,
get a grip.

Your a smart guy. Just work on your guilt of being shoulder deep in methodological nationalism and you should be fine.

/JJ

Aristotle · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Posts: 1388 Location: Taiwan

Many long term residents on Taiwan are beginning to plan their "exit strategy" from Taiwan, including myself.
Over the the many years of living on Taiwan and Asia there has never existed before the inevitable threat of war on Taiwan that exist today and continues to grow.
There are hundreds of thousands of non Chinese immigrants who have not been allowed to fully participate in Taiwanese society nor obtain citizenship on and equal basis with our ethnic Chinese counterparts. Many long term residents who would, in a real country be termed immigrants are in the process of preparing to leave Taiwan as the government of Taiwan has so ignorantly ensured that they have no reason to stay.
Anyone thinking about making Taiwan their long term home should seriously consider the ramifications very carefully.
I am in the process of opening a Tiki bar in Thailand and you are all welcome when/ if that becomes a reality.
Good luck.
A.

jonjack · Joined: 05 Apr 2005 Posts: 34 Location: Canada

Logician, Taoyuan Steve are you there?

I asked for Aristotle and I sure got him.

Dear A. point taken.

Aside from registering with a local government office of your country and banking with a foreign bank, keeping some cash on hand and developing a long term plan, what would you suggest Aristotle?

P.S.

Count me in for the Tiki bar. I want my own Jonjack bar stool.

I would also like to know if any of the above mentioned play a competitive game of chess.

TaoyuanSteve · Joined: 05 Feb 2003 Posts: 1028 Location: Taoyuan

Sure, I'm here JonJack. What do you want?

Aristotle's post? Fear mongering as usual. Threat of war? More so than at any time in its history? No. Remember 96? How about in the very early days of the rift when each side exchanged volleys of artillery to and from the outlying islands. With so much investment flowing into China from Taiwan, Japan and America, it is unlikely that China will want to unsettle the status quo. The anti secession bill is unsettling, but only puts into law what China has been saying all along. I don't foresee any immanent danger of invasion.

logician · Joined: 15 Jan 2004 Posts: 70

Aristotle · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Posts: 1388 Location: Taiwan

From the research I have seen there are about 4 or 5 years left of peace and stability in the Taiwan straits.
I think there will be a time when the goverment of this island will embrace eqality and civil rights for everyone on Taiwan. Unfortunaly it will not be until after the war.

TaoyuanSteve · Joined: 05 Feb 2003 Posts: 1028 Location: Taoyuan

CndnEnrgy · Joined: 15 Mar 2005 Posts: 14 Location: Toronto

There is no such thing as objective truth, its all about perspective.

Read Nietzsche.

TaoyuanSteve · Joined: 05 Feb 2003 Posts: 1028 Location: Taoyuan

CndnEnrgy · Joined: 15 Mar 2005 Posts: 14 Location: Toronto

Nice man, well put.

My point was that it is all relative. What may be dangerous for one is not dangerous for another. Take taiwanese air pollution: my experiences in Toronto and Pittsburgh and Boston have prepared me to a certain extent, although I'm sure its worse in Taipei.

Yet someone from backwoods Canada might want to take it a bit more seriously.

To a certain extent, everything on this board needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as people cannot relate anything but their own experiences, which will never be the same as your own.

Cheers.

jonjack · Joined: 05 Apr 2005 Posts: 34 Location: Canada

Aristotle offers as evidence people in the expat community planning exit stategies.

Evaluate as you will.

The Taiwanese people I speak to in Canada do agree there is an excalation of tensions and that is squarely put either on the shoulders of president Chen or China depending on their personal political mind set.

I follow all the news closely because I have family in Taiwan.

If I was of the same opinion as Aristotle in terms of imminence, I would already have brought them to Canada.

However, everyone I speak to in Canada who is either Chinese or a stakeholder like myself in Taiwan agrees, there is no question, things are moving in the wrong direction and political tensions are reaching a new highs.

The 1996 missile crisis was never a secret. They said what they would do and they said when. The assets involved were closely watched by America AWACS and satellites. The biggest actual concern about the whole incident was the temporary disruption to international flight paths. They wanted to make waves about the election in Taiwan and thats all they did.

The current situation is qualatatively different. After years of practising amphibious landing exercises in differenr areas of Fujien province everything has changed. How? China is quickly learning how to integrate land, air and sea assets in a co-ordinated manner.

If you read any of the current thinking and debate on military matters you can see that Aristotle is mentioning time frames that are not far different from many military analysts. Though he does not explain how he comes up with 4-5 years.

Here is one sample of the many contributors to this problem.

Current world systems theorists who apply analysis to the Taiwan straight seem to be saying inevitable conflict within 10 years based on the China's rate of urbanization. To manage growing urbanization the central government has been forced to give more power to provincial and Civic governments. This may lead to Beijing re-exerting itself via a popular national objective. Erecting communist monuments in Hong Kong wont exactly be sufficient.

The status quo is in danger.

/JJ