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31
Joined: 21 Jan 2005 Posts: 1797
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Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Darkbloom wrote: |
The market will last as long as the US remains an economic superpower.
Want to keep yourself marketable beyond that? Start learning Chinese now. |
No. So many TEFLers out there speak the local language well but are still TEFling. It is so hard for TEFLers to get out of TEFL and get a decent job in their host countries. That is why they carry on TEFLing till they drop. TEFLers who learnt Chinese would still end up TEFLing. |
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ntropy

Joined: 11 Oct 2003 Posts: 671 Location: ghurba
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Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Until December 23, 2012 |
Ah, yes. The end of the Mayan calendar.
Terence McKenna also identifies 2012 as Time Point Zero when "this" reality is due for a paradigm change. |
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Gregor

Joined: 06 Jan 2005 Posts: 842 Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
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Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 3:40 am Post subject: |
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Moore,
There is simply no point in worrying so much about the future. Worry a little bit, if you must. But at some point you have to let go of the idea that you can possibly know the future. You can only plan for so much.
Will the TEFL industry dry up? Maybe. What will we do then? We'll cope. As always.
I was, at one point, an offset printing press operator. Computer technology didn't make me LOSE my job, but it cut my pay by more than 50%. I could have seen that coming. Maybe I DID see it coming. But in any case, I coped. I survived.
As for TEFL, there are no clear signs of that industry suddenly going away. There are computer advances, but none of those will ever completely replace the need for teachers. And the idea of replacing a whole language, when so much has already been invested in everyone's learning English, is just paranoia.
I wouldn't open up an English Shack, though. A school, maybe. But an English school? NOT a clever idea.
There ARE signs that it is becoming less and less important, slowly. That may be. But that's all the more reason to improve your qualifications - as the need for teachers diminishes, the best and most qualified ones will be the ones who get the good jobs. Even if English WASN'T the intended universal language, there would be some call for teachers. I know one woman here in China who has a well-paid university position, teaching SPANISH, of all things. Who in China needs to learn Spanish? But there you are.
The moral? WE'LL BE FINE. |
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VanIslander

Joined: 21 Mar 2005 Posts: 67 Location: temp banned from dave's korean boards
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Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 3:43 am Post subject: |
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| ntropy wrote: |
| "this" reality is due for a paradigm change. |
It happened in 2001.
The world really hasn't been the same since. |
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tedkarma

Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1598 Location: The World is my Oyster
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Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 3:46 am Post subject: |
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For everyone who thinks students will soon switch to Chinese, consider that India has a larger, better educated population - which uses English as its unifying language.
India has the potential to surpass China in growth - just needs to continue its economic reforms. |
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merlin

Joined: 10 May 2004 Posts: 582 Location: Somewhere between Camelot and NeverNeverLand
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Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:40 am Post subject: |
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Ahh, 2012 - the beginning of the fourth age.
For those of you who missed the first and the second they were the pre-Atlantis and Atlantis age. Supposedly year one on the Mayan Calendar coincides with the sinking of Atlantis.
Well, so at least for the Mayan calendar buffs.
I heard on a radio broadcast recently that time not only goes forward as we commonly measure it but also backwards - as can be seen by everything on the planet except humans and our geiger counters predicting earthquakes and other natural disasters. I know firsthand from years in Hawaii that birds and the Hawaiian Spotted Snails in Makua Valley know when a Hurricane will strike and when it won't - they can predict the unpredictable. This was associated with another story about a network of random number generators spaced around the globe that show inexplicable trends all of a sudden a few days before global "biggies" like 9-11 and the tsunami. Has statisticians baffled.
So where am I going with this?
For those who believe in the catastrophe at the end of the Mayan calendar and the end of TEFL as we know it, if you listen you will feel the time ripples coming back towards you and be able to anticipate when to start a new career like all the other animals before catastrophe hits. |
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Celeste
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 Posts: 814 Location: Fukuoka City, Japan
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Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 6:27 am Post subject: Re: How long will the TEFL teaching industry last? |
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| Moore wrote: |
| Is the TEFL industry going to burn itself out, and if so, when? |
I don't know if the industry will burn itself out, but as translation technology becomes better, there will certainly be less demand for language trainers. Currently, however, electronic dictionaries and translators are severely limited from doing anything but one word translation with any accuracy. (Have you ever recieved a letter from a person who used an on-line translator to help them write it? ) Given time, though I think that the technology will get there. Look at the personal computer and how it has changed in the last 25 years. |
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VanIslander

Joined: 21 Mar 2005 Posts: 67 Location: temp banned from dave's korean boards
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Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 6:34 am Post subject: |
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| tedkarma wrote: |
For everyone who thinks students will soon switch to Chinese, consider that India has a larger, better educated population - which uses English as its unifying language.
India has the potential to surpass China in growth - just needs to continue its economic reforms. |
That EXACTLY demonstrates the original point: foreign ESL teachers will be done away with once domestic English-speaking skills reach a certain threshhold.
India is NOT a haven for ESL teachers from Western countries because so many people in India know it and teach it to others in thier own country, and use it in trade and communication.
Of course, India isn't your typical Asian or sub-Asian country: There are a lot of languages and a history of British colonialism. |
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moonraven
Joined: 24 Mar 2004 Posts: 3094
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Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 7:29 am Post subject: |
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| It refers to the last day of the 13th baktun of the Fifth World, in the Mayan calendar. |
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tedkarma

Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 1598 Location: The World is my Oyster
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Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:04 am Post subject: |
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Uh, my point about India was that it will be booming - and China, Korea, and Japan will need to work on their English skills to do business with them.
I'm not sure that fluency and cultural awareness won't become more and more important - and more a part of the instructional package. |
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Deconstructor

Joined: 30 Dec 2003 Posts: 775 Location: Montreal
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Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:23 am Post subject: |
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I don't know when a robot that looks better than me and talks better than me and explains the difference between an infinitive and a gerund better than me will take over my job, but I do know that English will be the international language for the longest time. It will not be replaced by Chinese or any other language. WHY? because what made English international was not only because the rich spoke it, but because the American culture used it to create myth and magic through its movies and music. When people learn English, they're not only doing if for utilitarian purposes, they are in fact buying a piece of that magic and myth.
It is not enough to be rich. The only way another language could ever hope to be international is if it also excites people's imagination and helps them dream. So far only English has done that. |
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web fishing
Joined: 02 Jun 2005 Posts: 95
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Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:20 am Post subject: |
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| Deconstructor, I agree. |
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Freestyle T

Joined: 15 Jul 2005 Posts: 494 Location: Charming Chengdu
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Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:17 am Post subject: |
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| Moore wrote: |
In view of the difficulty Europeans have learning relatively basic English, I shudder to imagine them grappling with Chinese... |
Really? I thought Europeans in general spoke excellent English. At least, every European I've met has. |
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merlin

Joined: 10 May 2004 Posts: 582 Location: Somewhere between Camelot and NeverNeverLand
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Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:06 am Post subject: |
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Good eye!
It is a rather interesting concept that the English have a difficult time learning relatively basic English.  |
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Moore

Joined: 25 Aug 2004 Posts: 730 Location: Madrid
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Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:20 am Post subject: |
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quote "Really? I thought Europeans in general spoke excellent English. At least, every European I've met has"
....I used to think the same before I started teaching here, but four years teaching in France and two in Spain have proved how shockingly bad they are at English....that said, the average Londoner would be hard pressed to chat fluently in Spanish, French or German
Mustn�t grumble though, the worse they are, the more cash I make! |
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