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the crash of the taiwan dollar
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Fortigurn



Joined: 29 Oct 2003
Posts: 390

PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jason_seeburn wrote:
So it does look like something's happened.


A number of things have happened. You do not understand any of them.
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jason_seeburn



Joined: 26 Apr 2003
Posts: 399
Location: Toronto

PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

7969 wrote:
jason_seeburn wrote:
Quote:
BUt Seeburn, one should at least strive to stipulate one's criterion... an even playing field so to speak.

I've ranked the countries in terms of what an 'entry-level' teacher might hope to make (and more accurately - save). Not a distortion of god knows how many factors as you have offered...


to answer everyone at once, CDN dollar has appreciated around 15 cents since 2002. In 2002 you could get around $3000 CDN for 58,000NT. You can now get roughly $2000 CDN for 58,000 NT. 2000 x .15 = $300. So the NT should be worth roughly $300 CDN less now than it was in 2002. It is actually worth around $1000 CDN less. Contrast this with the Korean won, in 1999 1 million won was worth roughly $950 CDN. It is now currently worth $1,180 CDN. So while the won seems to have kept pace with the appreciation of the CDN dollar, the NT dollar has not done so, it has actually lost value, plus been hammered by the appreciation of the CDN money. I can't see how it would even be possible to send home money from Taiwan with the currency in its current state. At the most you could send home like $1000 a month if you lived like a pauper. When I was there I was getting a relatively modest salary of 63,500 NT a month and I was sending home $2000 CDN a month, every month I was there. 63,500 NT is currently worth $2,229 CDN. So even if I managed to live on almost no money at all, I couldn't send home what I was sending. My yearly salary in CDN dollars was 38,700 in 2002. In today's NT it would be $26,748. So it does look like something's happened.


exchange rate in 2002 - NT$22/1 CAD
exchange rate today - NT$28/1 CAD

your math is way off my friend. i was in taiwan in late 2002-2003, and in 2002, the exchange rate was approx NT$22 - $CAD (see link below). in late 2002, NT$58000 would have only been about $2600CAD (58,000/22), not $3000 as you quote above. today, 3-4 years later, with an exchange rate of NT$28/CAD, NT$58000 will get you about $2050.00CAD (58,000/twenty-eight). so where you indicate that an NT$58000 salary is worth about $1000.00CAD less now than it was in 2002, the difference between 2002 and now is actually only about $550.00 CAD.

http://www.x-rates.com/d/TWD/CAD/hist2002.html

now if you were getting $38700CAD annual salary in 2002 in taiwan, your salary must have been about NT$72,000/month. 72,000 x 12 = NT$840,000 per year/22 = $39,000CAD. today, that same monthly salary is worth about $30,857CAD (72,000 x 12 = NT$840,000/twenty-eight), not $26,748CAD as you now claim.

as has already been stated, the taiwan dollar hasnt depreciated so much as the canadian dollar has gotten stronger vs the US $$, the usual benchmark for comparison. the situation in taiwan could hardly be called grim.

7969


sorry, I was there in 2001, not 2002. At that time though the exchange was around 21.5 NT per 1 CDN. So 58,000NT would have been around $2700 CDN. If you look at the value of the CDN dollar in 2001 you will see that it was worth around 64 cents US. Which gives you a 26 cent rise to today's value of 90 cents US. Multiply $2000 (today's value of 58,000NT) by .26 and you get $520, so you're right it's only about a $180 drop in value relative to the value of both currencies. But that's not really the point I am making. You have to look at world currencies together and not separate, ie look at the value of other world currencies in comparasin with the Canadian dollar, for example the Korean won. In 1999 1 Canadian dollar was equal to around 800 or so Korean won. In 2006 1 Canadian dollar is equal to around 840 Korean won, so there has been a very small increase. This is despite the fact that as you say, the Canadian dollar has been soaring in value. So the Korean won appears to have kept up with the appreciation of the Canadian dollar, while the Taiwan Dollar has not kept up. 21.5/1 in 2001 to 28/1 in 2006 is a 24% loss in value for the NT dollar relative to the Canadian dollar. 800/1 in 1999 to 840/1 in 2006 is only a 5% loss in value in comparasin for the Korean won relative to the Canadian dollar. Just for interests sake, the value of the NT dollar in 1999 was the same as in 2001, around 21.5/1 CDN dollar.


Last edited by jason_seeburn on Thu May 18, 2006 5:13 pm; edited 2 times in total
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jason_seeburn



Joined: 26 Apr 2003
Posts: 399
Location: Toronto

PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fortigurn wrote:
jason_seeburn wrote:
So it does look like something's happened.


A number of things have happened. You do not understand any of them.


perhaps you could enlighten us? My original question was:

Quote:
Huh? What happened?


now that we have the math worked out, 24% loss in value for the NT dollar relative to the Canadian dollar from 1999 to 2006, 5% loss in value for the Korean won relative to the Canadian dollar from 1999 to 2006, perhaps some of you wise folks can explain to me what has in fact happened?
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jonks



Joined: 29 Jan 2006
Posts: 1240

PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a tricky one.
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Fortigurn



Joined: 29 Oct 2003
Posts: 390

PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2006 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jason_seeburn wrote:
Fortigurn wrote:
jason_seeburn wrote:
So it does look like something's happened.


A number of things have happened. You do not understand any of them.


perhaps you could enlighten us?


If you haven't been enlightened by the posts in this thread yet, it's clear you're not going to be (because you simply don't understand the issues).

I note that your story keeps on changing in almost every post.

Quote:
My original question was:

Quote:
Huh? What happened?


now that we have the math worked out, 24% loss in value for the NT dollar relative to the Canadian dollar from 1999 to 2006, 5% loss in value for the Korean won relative to the Canadian dollar from 1999 to 2006, perhaps some of you wise folks can explain to me what has in fact happened?


You've been told what happened. A number of things happened. One of them was that the Canadian dollar has become stronger (the Taiwan dollar did not 'crash'). Another is that the standard English teaching wage in Taiwan for someone with no qualifications, fresh off the boat, is no longer what you claim it to have been (if it ever was, which you have not proved).
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jason_seeburn



Joined: 26 Apr 2003
Posts: 399
Location: Toronto

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2006 4:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fortigurn wrote:
jason_seeburn wrote:
Fortigurn wrote:
jason_seeburn wrote:
So it does look like something's happened.


A number of things have happened. You do not understand any of them.


perhaps you could enlighten us?


If you haven't been enlightened by the posts in this thread yet, it's clear you're not going to be (because you simply don't understand the issues).

man, just state the issues. Why the huge mystery? If you know then spit it out.

Quote:
I note that your story keeps on changing in almost every post.

who T F cares about my story? The story is just a narrative to make the post interesting. What I am really interested in is that the NT has dropped about 20% more than the Korean won against the Canadian dollar and I want to know why. If you know then why don't you tell me?

Quote:
My original question was:

Quote:
Huh? What happened?


now that we have the math worked out, 24% loss in value for the NT dollar relative to the Canadian dollar from 1999 to 2006, 5% loss in value for the Korean won relative to the Canadian dollar from 1999 to 2006, perhaps some of you wise folks can explain to me what has in fact happened?


Quote:
You've been told what happened. A number of things happened. One of them was that the Canadian dollar has become stronger (the Taiwan dollar did not 'crash'). Another is that the standard English teaching wage in Taiwan for someone with no qualifications, fresh off the boat, is no longer what you claim it to have been (if it ever was, which you have not proved).

the standard esl teaching wage seems to be around 52,000 NT to 60,000 NT. But who cares? It could be 600,000NT it wouldn't change the fact that the NT has gone down quite a bit more than the Korean won against the dollar. Look at the Japanese Yen, in 1999 it 74 yen would get you a dollar CDN. Now 101 yen will get you a dollar. That is a 27% difference from 1999 to now. Look at the Thai Bhat. In 1999 24 Thai Bhat would get you a CDN dollar. Now 35 Thai Bhat are necessary to buy you a CDN dollar. That's a 32 % difference! So every Asian currency, other than the Korean won, has taken a dive in relation to the CDN dollar, yet the won has not? It's bizarre. Evidently Korea is the place to be right now.
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TaoyuanSteve



Joined: 05 Feb 2003
Posts: 1028
Location: Taoyuan

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2006 4:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
NT has dropped about 20% more than the Korean won against the Canadian dollar and I want to know why. If you know then why don't you tell me?


I can't comment specifically about the Won. I do know that the CAD is very strong these days in the exchange markets. Why? Any number of explanations are possible. Government policy may make the CAD look more attractive to currency investors. The Canadian government has been running surplus budgets consecutively for years. Now there is a fiscal conservative (albeit minority) government in power. The economy is looking up. Commodity prices, especially oil (for which Canada is a source country), are really high. All this is happening while the US is running huge deficits. These are all factors which have driven up the Canadian dollar substantially. Look at your price for one US dollar. Now look at what it would have cost you in 2002. See what I mean?

The NT hasn't crashed in any signifigant way. The CAD has gone up in leaps and bounds recently, though. It's not as bad as you characterize it. Salaries are generally better than 52k per month--and keep in mind you generally work fewer hours for your money here, doing easier work, than you would in Hogwons. Check out salary versus hours worked in Korea, then figure what you'd make working the same number of hours at, say, 650 per hour in Taiwan. People still manage to do well and save, though the exchange rate does have an impact on those who choose to exchange their NT at the current rate.

However, if you believe that Korea is the place for you to be right now then, of course, that is your decision. Good luck.
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Pop Fly



Joined: 15 Feb 2003
Posts: 429

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2006 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And the best part of this thread is...........

TaoyuanSteve wrote:

However, if you believe that Korea is the place for you to be right now then, of course, that is your decision. Good luck.


But hey, Jason....nice to hear from you again. Don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya...mmmkay.....Bah Bye.
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jason_seeburn



Joined: 26 Apr 2003
Posts: 399
Location: Toronto

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2006 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pop Fly wrote:
And the best part of this thread is...........

TaoyuanSteve wrote:

However, if you believe that Korea is the place for you to be right now then, of course, that is your decision. Good luck.


But hey, Jason....nice to hear from you again. Don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya...mmmkay.....Bah Bye.


Hey Pop Fly, you still in Taiwan? Still at a cram school? A lot of the people I met there are now doing rather interesting things (I know quite a few university profs now, kind of weird cause they were all language instructors in cram schools when I met them). Seems everyone is coming up and doing interesting stuff. I assume you're not still slaving away in cram school purgatory and you've moved on to bigger and better things?
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7969



Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Posts: 5782
Location: Coastal Guangdong

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2006 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

there's more to understanding economics than just comparing a basket of currencies with one another. why one currency falls in value when compared with another but a third currency doesnt isnt as simplistic as its made out here. economies are rather complex entities that have a lot of variables.

7969
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TaoyuanSteve



Joined: 05 Feb 2003
Posts: 1028
Location: Taoyuan

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2006 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

7969 wrote:
there's more to understanding economics than just comparing a basket of currencies with one another. why one currency falls in value when compared with another but a third currency doesnt isnt as simplistic as its made out here. economies are rather complex entities that have a lot of variables.

7969


Agreed, hence the reason I wrote:

Quote:
Why? Any number of explanations are possible...


Nobody is trying to give a definitive explanation as to why currencies are worth what they are versus others, least of all me. In the case of the Canadian dollar, though, there are some measurable phenomena that MAY have resulted in its climb in relative value in relation to the US and NT dollars. The main purpose behind elucidating these possible explanations being to explain to the OP that the exchange rate he's noticing today is not due to a "crash" in the value of the NT. Taiwan isn't facing a currency crisis or anything of the sort.

I think OP does discuss a valid point, though. Foreign exchange is important, especially for those looking to cash in their chips in the short to medium term. What you stand to take home in your home currency is worthy of consideration. In my earlier days here, I recall a rate of exchange of around 22:1. It's now 28:1 or worse. I do think about this issue and see it as important.
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DirtGuy



Joined: 28 Dec 2004
Posts: 529

PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2006 3:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The USD is falling like a rock in a pond against the NT and will probably continue to do so for the foreseable future. This leads me to two conclusions:

1. Anyone coming to TW from the US strictly for a visit is going to get hosed when it comes to exchanging USD for NT.

2. Anyone working in TW and remitting money back to the US is making out like a bandit because of the falling dollar.

Is this correct thinking?

DirtGuy
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Pop Fly



Joined: 15 Feb 2003
Posts: 429

PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2006 5:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jason_seeburn wrote:
Pop Fly wrote:
And the best part of this thread is...........

TaoyuanSteve wrote:

However, if you believe that Korea is the place for you to be right now then, of course, that is your decision. Good luck.


But hey, Jason....nice to hear from you again. Don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya...mmmkay.....Bah Bye.


Hey Pop Fly, you still in Taiwan? Still at a cram school? A lot of the people I met there are now doing rather interesting things (I know quite a few university profs now, kind of weird cause they were all language instructors in cram schools when I met them). Seems everyone is coming up and doing interesting stuff. I assume you're not still slaving away in cram school purgatory and you've moved on to bigger and better things?


What's it to you?

FWIW, I am living the life of riley. Big pay, few hours, interesting work, great friends, wonderful partner, low taxes, travel whenever, wherever I want, a savings account intended for the purchase of a home, cool motorcycle, downtown parking space for my truck on rainy days, Costco card, 42" Flat Screen TV, brand new desktop that uses the flat screen as a monitor, a freezer full of food, and all the other creature comforts to make my life happy, hearty and hale.


How's Hog Town?
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SanChong



Joined: 22 Nov 2005
Posts: 335

PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2006 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The NT hasn't crashed in any signifigant way. The CAD has gone up in leaps and bounds recently, though. It's not as bad as you characterize it. Salaries are generally better than 52k per month--and keep in mind you generally work fewer hours for your money here, doing easier work, than you would in Hogwons. Check out salary versus hours worked in Korea, then figure what you'd make working the same number of hours at, say, 650 per hour in Taiwan. People still manage to do well and save, though the exchange rate does have an impact on those who choose to exchange their NT at the current rate.


A great example of how complex the issues are when comparing the overall benefits of two different countries. It really amazes me when someone will travel halfway across the world primarily for money. If you really care that much about money, it seems to me that you would rather stay home and work in a career there. Over the long run you will make a LOT more money doing that than working in Korea, Taiwan or wherever else.

A few thousand dollars difference in salary over the course of a year seems silly and insignifcant to me when compared with deciding where you would like to spend your LIFE for a year or more.

Is it me, or do most people come to Asia saying, "I just want to enjoy a year+ of my life being in a good environment and interesting country and making enough to live comfortably"

After awhile, for many people, it turns into, "Where can I make the most money"
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DirtGuy



Joined: 28 Dec 2004
Posts: 529

PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2006 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SanChong:

Um, excuse me, but what planet are you on? Your statements about staying put and working in a career are fine for those who have the choice and the wherewithal to do so. However, have you noticed how many illegals sneak into the US just for the almighty buck. As many of them are plain and simple economic refugees unable to cut it in their own countries, I do not think one of their motivations is to experience a new culture.

Unforntunately, making money is and always will be one of the prime motivations of man. And coming to a country such as TW where saving $1,000 USD per month is not too difficult, makes the place a magnet. Do you have any f------ clue how difficult it is to save that much money in many (most?) parts of the US.

I do not disagree with what you say. I just think plain old money trumps other motivations far more often than most people care to admit.

DirtGuy
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