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[Guy Courchesne]

I'm not one to raise alarms on Mexican events, but the news video on journalist Ricardo Rocha's visit to Oaxaca city is disturbing. Have you seen this? Why don't the feds step in to do something, instead of just trying be discussion mediator?

[MO39]

Guy,

I haven't seen the video you mention but I did read a story on the web about gunfire being exchanged (wow, what a euphemism that is) in front of the Camino Real Hotel in Oaxaca between striking teachers and the local police. Is that what you're referring to? It makes me heartsick that think about what's been happening in Oaxaca City lately. It's been the scene of some of the best times I've spent in Mexico.

MO

[Guy Courchesne]

There was a protester that was shot...don't know if that's the same story you refer to, but the Rocha affair also happened at the Camino Real. I can't find the Rocha video online yet, but I'm sure it'll come up as has his other work with Detras de la Noticia and interviews with AMLO.

Rocha and his cameraman caught a mob on camera attacking a van. The mob then turned on Rocha as they sealed themselves in the Camino Real with the camera rolling. Someone from the street came in and threatened them with a machete. The video really captured the fear and uncertainty that is hopefully only a single event.

[MO39]

I recall reading about a reporter being threatened or "detained". I do hope this turmoil will be dealt with soon in a way that doesn't just engender more violence.

[delacosta]

Here is a brief summary, in layman�s terms by a layman, and simple observer of what I understand to be the situation in Oaxaca, and how it got to be so. I�ll try to include brief explanations of the characters involved for those not too familiar with the players in the Oaxacan scene.

*note: I thought it was going to be brief but its somehow managed to grow out of my hands and I haven�t even finished�

I'll start at the last election in which Ulysis Ruiz, the current governor whose resignation is being sought, was put in place as governor by the exiting governor, Jose Murat- with the additional help of Robert Madrazo-the PRI�s dinosaur old school candidate in the recent presidential election. He wasn't the first choice of either, nor of the Oaxacan PRI party apparatus but was known to be malleable and above all was extremely loyal to Madrazo, in addition to being one of those hard core Priistas who were under the delusion that Madrazo would actually be 'elected' as president (not too common in the rest of Mexico but alive and well at the time in Oaxaca). Murat's camp acquiesced the usual way to difficult Oaxacan political deci$$ions and was assured that Ruiz's political inexperience would be compensated by accepting advice from the Murat gang.

Normally incoming Governors in Oaxaca are appointed by the traditional 'dedazo'. The jefes get together and it�s decided who is acceptable to the various groups. It's dirty and corrupt as hell but it's how things have always been done in Oaxaca, not to say the rest of Mexico. Everyone is paid off and social order- in a state always appearing to be on the verge of exploding- is maintained. Here's where (arguably-I'm by no means an expert and I'm sure there's much more history here than what I'm mentioning) the first deviation from the traditional Oaxacan election/ political script occurred.
Consensus amongst the key PRI players wasn�t reached. Murat had behaved more brutish during his sexenio than what is normal, even by Oaxacan standards for PRI governors-which is of course the only kind that Oaxaca has ever known. Most of his term was spent in a near alcoholic blackout, with brief lucidity being achieved only by his copious cocaine intake. His ability to thieve in a semi-civilized fashion was being compromised and the crowning achievement in his (increasingly public) ineptness came during a completely out of control two week �borrachera�: the famous �auto- attentado� or self attempted kidnapping in which, out of his mind on alcohol and blow, he pulled his gun and started firing madly inside his own car. At the time he was accompanied by two terrified edecanes that he had met at a party the previous night. He managed to wound and kill one of his own guards in the process. His fix it up people were quickly called in and came up with the insane kidnap attempt story, but despite their ample experience in saving the governor�s ass, couldn�t cover up what had really happened.

The split that Madrazo was causing in the PRI was even having an effect in Oaxaca and there were those that believed that his was a sinking ship. Former governor Diodoro Carrasco, emboldened by Fox�s arrival to the presidency, had already switched camps to the PAN ( he�s a PAN federal deputy now) and his man for governor was Gabino Cue. Cue had served as Presidente Municipal (Mayor) of Oaxaca city and managed to keep things running smoothly and oversaw the city�s incredible growth as an international tourist destination. Very pro business, he was(is) popular with the old money families of the city as well as being on good terms with most of the caciques-statewide. His ability to navigate the Oaxacan political playing field was demonstrated by him winning the nomination to lead the opposition party in the election for governor-he was the candidate put forward by the unlikely PAN-PRD-Convergencia-PT coalition (this would be like a whole bunch of left wing parties teaming up with the Republicans in the US or the Conservative party in Canada!). It was understood that the only way for the PRI to be routed from Oaxaca was to form this coalition, which did manage to bring together enough popular support, in combination with Murat�s unpopularity, to soundly defeat Ulysis at the polls.
Now here where the script reverts back to the usual unfolding of events and resembles that which has recently unfolded at the federal level. That is of course the implementation of election fraud with the approval and co-operation of historically (dis)honorable and dependable (very dependable) institutions. There were protests statewide, many municipal building s were shut down and Cue promised that he and his people would not allow Ruiz to take office. He had enough popular support to ensure that it would have been very difficult to do so and Oaxacans were prepared to support whatever actions he called for. Any of this ring a bell?

Cue�s people realized that once again the powder keg known as Oaxaca was on the verge of chaos and the usual means of reaching con$sen$sus were achieved. Cue�s popular support base reacted with disdain but typical weariness, realizing that money had exchanged hands, and those that were in a position to do so quickly scrambled to receive what came their way.

Up to now it appeared that Oaxaca had had an election in which the PRI won by old and trusted means with more internal squabbling than usual, with some near winners and angry losers and that everything would settle down to the usual putrid business as usual- except that governing would require an astutute and experienced leader who would be able to work with all of the affected political and social parties who had just come so close to gaining power and had had it stolen right in front of them.

This is where Murat might have been able to help and where Madrazo really messed things up. Madrazo had Ruiz salivating at the prospect of what would be tossed his way upon his mentor reaching the presidency-and he was going to need some help with the funding of his campaign. Money that should have been spread around (especially so soon after such a dirty election) to ensure governability and social peace was diverted to the Madrzo campaign. Power had gotten to Ruiz and he wasn�t listening to his Oaxacan advisors, not even Murat. With egos still freshly bruised and tempers still short he initiated a remodeling of the beautiful old Oaxacan historical center, the Zocalo, without consulting any of the business families that run the downtown center, including the owners of the cafes and hotels that surround the area. He ignored them out of spite for supporting Cue, with whom they had established good relationships during his term as mayor. Not only that but he sent Hacienda and other government agencies as well as his own thugs after them to shake them down for money to support the project. He shamelessly announced that it would cost 700 million pesos and began to pave over, rip up the antique cobble stones, cut trees and basically do whatever he pleased without any consultation or planning in a United Nations declared �centro de patrimonio cultural historico�(� center of world cultural heritage�, in Englsih?) In the process he not only enraged local business leaders who had to close during the process, but cultural and arts groups as well. The kicker of course was that it was nothing more than an excuse to siphon money off for the Madrazo campaign.
He soon started to harass leaders of opposition groups-allegedly beating up, jailing and disappearing people at will. Money that had always been used to keep disaffected social groups under control (bribes to leaders) was being diverted to Madrazo�s campaign. He even committed the ultimate political faux pas by deciding to prosecute Gabino Cue for stealing public money during his term as mayor, a no- no in Mexican politics where this kind of behavior, when done with the right amount of discretion, is expected from politicians. The local newspaper, Noticias de Oaxaca, that dared to report and criticize his actions and the opinions of outraged Oaxacans, was stormed by police and closed. It did manage to re-open but employees were beaten up and reporters jailed. It appeared that international opposition had a minimal effect beyond the usual empty political sound-bites that his team regularly offered.

He was painting himself into a corner and not aware of it, as even Murat and others had withdrawn from his camp to watch as amused spectators to see how far this bumbling fool would go.

The final straw came when the Oaxacan teachers union, the now famous secci�n 22, arrived in town, as they do every year, to negotiate their new labour contract. Every year they establish themselves in the Z�calo, set up camp and in a couple of weeks come to an agreement with the governor. They mess up the city center and are a general pain in the ass. They stage a few marches, make some outrageous demands, piss everyone off and eventually reach a settlement a few percentage points higher than what anyone else gets and then they all go home. They belong to the SNTE (the national teachers union-a very powerful force in the Mexican political scene at all levels, because of their ability to vote in block and their leader�s willingness to throw this support behind the highest bidder, as well as having ample experience in manipulating elections) and are headed by union president Esther Gordillo-who at the time was doing her best to impede Madrazo�s bid for presidency. Some say that Ruiz had already spent the money that the teachers were looking for, which not only includes the pay increases but also the payoffs to all the right union leaders, on Madrazo�s presidential campaign. Some say that under Gordillo�s orders no agreement would have been reached regardless, so that Madrazo would lose votes for president. Ruiz had publicly stated that he would hand Madrazo at least a million Oaxacan presidential votes. The hatred between Madrazo and Gordillo at that point-Madrazo had kicked her out of the party a few months earlier- was so strong that it didn�t matter to Gordillo that the votes that didn�t go to Madrazo would go to Lopez Obrador-who hadn�t, despite repeated solicitations, welcomed her to his team. It looked like Madrazo would have to come off with egg on his face. Money, as it always does in Oaxaca, would have solved the problem.

This is where Ruiz committed a fatal error in a long series of politically inept moves-he sent in the state troops to try and scare off the teachers, known for being the most radical and politicized union in all of Mexico. Helicopters flew overhead and dropped teargas. The next day newspapers published photos of Ulysis surveying the scene from one of the same helicopters, identified by the numbers on its tail. The dislodging wasn�t successful and only served to unite all the affected parties against the governor. Even the Catholic Church joined the cause. This is when the APPO was born-an umbrella organization that has been growing since then and currently has at least 200 social groups as members. They don�t even know themselves exactly who belongs to the group. Only one thing was clear, they were all united in the goal to remove Ulysis from office. It should be added that the vast majority of the groups involved share that and only that objective-true cooperation amongst the many political and social actors in Oaxaca at his stage in its political maturity would be a pipe dream-as can be evidenced by the ruptures that are currently appearing in both the APPO and the section 22 and which the federal government has been banking on over the last four months.
One man�s absolute political incompetence had finally united Oaxacans in opposition to the ruling government like never before in recent history. And unfortunately for Oaxaca all of this has been taking place at the same time as presidential elections in which another group of corrupt and politically inept leaders involvement has only served to worsen the situation.

To be continued. Hopefully the troops haven�t been sent in as this is being written�

[Guy Courchesne]

An astute observation... thank you delacosta.

[Guy Courchesne]

Follow up...

I find it interesting that the Feds are saying that there is no legal mechanism in place, at the excutive level, to remove a state governor. I'll bet there once was such a mechanism, when the PRI ruled both the executive and the legislative. An informal mechanism a la Salinas to remove such an embarrassing character.

This, again, speaks of the lack of a PAN consolidation of power, and the shift of said power from the presidency to congress, or even to the states. If PAN was truly entrenched in every institution, and could exercise such power, then I could start to believe that they had the capability to pull off an election steal on July 2nd. They don't, and they can't.

[delacosta]

Guy it appears that it's you and I who have the most interest in discussing Mexican politics on this forum. I only wish I had more time...we must meet for coffee one day.

As to the ringing of the bell of familiarity: what I was referring to was the similarity in the unfolding of events, the predictable play by play of a fraudulent election process, if you will, or paint by number if you prefer.

I think it incorrect for those in Coalition for the Good of All to bring a knee-jerk response to losing the presidential election, albeit by a very narrow margin.

A knee jerk reaction? One would have had to maintained ones head deep up one�s rectum during this election to truly believe such a statement.
A knee jerk reaction is to deny a recount in a razor thin election that was full of documented irregularities (in other words not I said , you said�) by simple repeating adnauseum� the votes were counted and they were counted well, one, two, three��

In really simple terms :If we measure say the height of someone and I say it�s 175 cm and you say no it�s 178 wouldn�t it be best to just re-measure? Would anyone believe you if you kept on insisting, no it�s 178 and refused to measure again? If you were confident in your measurement you would have no reason to not want to measure again, now would you? If the presidency of a country depended on this count wouldn�t you, at least to remove any doubt or suspicion in the matter, indeed insist on a recount?

Perhaps we could agree to measure up to the kneecaps only? TRIFE�s 9%!

I can't understand how anyone could seriously claim that fraud didn't occur in the presidential election, if one has been following what has been happening. And I�m talking about the numbers. There are over a million and a half votes uncounted for-IFE numbers- not made up by either party (votes that can not be accounted for by the numbers of voters registered to vote at each station) I think that in order to govern with any degree of legitimacy, never mind ability, going beyond the claim that 'the votes were counted and they were counted well' (Calderon and gang) and then the TRIFE's 'the election was full of irregularities and the 60 % of polling stations in which the numbers don't add up doesn't matter', is necessary. The Trife themselves ruled that the elections were dirty but not dirty enough to be cancelled, going against their own legal precedents. The claims and requests to analyze the numerical inaccuracies, despite the available proof given in the sample taken, were denied .

Whatever PAN were lacking in skill in pulling off election fraud was supplied by both PRI and Esther Gordillo. Are you aware that in the days leading up to the election over 200,000 of the election workers who had volunteered to work on voting day were replaced? It has been requested that an investigation be undertaken into who the actual workers were replaced by but it is suspected that it was by members of the teachers union supplied by Gordillo-who have always been key players in supplying crooked election workers at all levels. Of course the IFE is doing everything possible, as they have done all through the election process to impede any type of transparency-beyond of course their intelligence- insulting massive ad campaign that assures just the opposite. The IFE has spent more on their post election popularity campaign than what they spent actually organizing the elections!

Do you remember the recordings that were made public in which Gordillo, on the day of the elections, after asking to send their support over to the PAN, assured PRI governors � not to worry ' as 14,000 of her people were overseeing the election and that there would be no problems?

The people currently pulling the strings are in no way trying to change the PRI way of thinking nor of governing and have adopted the same old tried and true mechanisms of control in order to stay in power. Up to the year 2000 democracy was allowed to unfold in Mexico, because Fox�s vision and acceptance of the neo-liberal economic model was approved by the key economic players in Mexico and of course beyond-most importantly the US. Obrador was seen as too high a risk, despite the fact that he is by no means an anti-capitalist. The fact that he had broad popular support by the millions for whom neo-liberal economic policy hasn�t been beneficial somehow didn�t make it into the econometric risk analysis. With left wing governments sprouting up all over Latin America and Obrador�s insistence on cleaning up the entrenched corrupt economic/political scene he was simpley rated as too risky a proposition. PAN in contrast would assure business as usual, what the majority want be dammed. In the process of obtaining and maintaining power PAN have integrated the scariest and most corrupt representatives from this group- Gamboa, Gordillo etc.

This, again, speaks of the lack of a PAN consolidation of power, and the shift of said power from the presidency to congress, or even to the states. If PAN was truly entrenched in every institution, and could exercise such power, then I could start to believe that they had the capability to pull off an election steal on July 2nd. They don't, and they can't.

I agree with you, they don�t and they know they don�t. Fox wasn�t able to operate at all during his presidency because of lack of this power and more noticeably, a lack of political know how and experience to get things done in the Mexican political arena. However, Fox did everything in his power, with of course ample cooperation from the economic elite( to whom legal institutions have always answered to in Mexican history-with brief exceptions during or threatened by revolution and bloodshed) to ensure that PAN would remain in power, at least superficially, for the next 6 years-and to do so he and Calderon have had to integrate the old pros into the fold. Calderon is just as or if not more clueless than Fox. The most experienced and willing Fagans of them all are the ones that are giving and will be giving him advice/orders. Calderon made himself a terribly nasty bed to lie in during these six years. All of those who supported his bid are going to demand payment, and they aren�t a nice bunch with the interests of the majority of Mexicans as their primary concern.

The only problem in swimming with sharks is that one has to expect to be de-gutted at some point by other sharks.

I agree it would be a good idea to shift power to congress-if only congress weren�t occupied by such a corrupt gang of thugs as it is currently, across all party lines, PRD included. Even if Calderon has the best of intentions he will not be able to clean up the mess that he is surrounded by now.

An indication of the extent of the moral bankruptcy in which the ruling political class finds itself is precisely the Oaxaca situation. It is because of political interests and maneuvering that the current situation has been allowed to fester for so long, to the point where it is now, about to explode.

Initially there was no will to solve the Oaxaca problem because of election tactics that involved all parties. PAN with Gordillo�s help, and here I can�t stress enough how heavily her involvement played out in this election-I�ve read political analysts who claim that this election was really between her and Obrador- wanted to take away votes from Madrazo in Oaxaca. I actually think that here Gordillo�s interests were playing an upper hand in insisting that he be punished for publicly humiliating her-woman scorned and all that. As we can see now, nobody messes with la maestra. Her actions are what in the end assured PAN their victory. She had desperately and repeatedly approached Obrador during his campaign, as the PRD�s political leanings fall more into line with the supposed leader of a union than does the PAN�s traditional anti union stance. Obrador refused to meet with her, apparently fearing the high price that he knew he would have to pay. She even managed to get through to Obrador�s famous chauffer, with whom he was discussing all decisions at the time, and begged for only five minutes with AMLO, who refused, saying it would be the most expensive five minutes in the history of the PRD. He�s currently living with the consequences of that decision.

If one remembers the early polls in which Cadler�n, practically an unknown, was coming in around 20% versus AMLO�s sixty, it is understandable why, in the context of the moral ghetto that is Mexican politics, in combination with his utter lack of understanding of what he has been getting himself into and with whom he has been willing to share his bed, he would welcome aboard any and all to his campaign as long as they were likely to help in his bid for the presidency.

I remember it being mentioned way back when the Oaxaca problem was in it�s kindling stage that Obrador�s people were causing the trouble. That was far from the case, they were minor players but of course didn�t disapprove of what was happening as they knew they would benefit most from voters abandoning Madrazo.

In concluding this longer than expected rant: I believe that Fox�s inexperience in solving anything more than minor political squirmishes in the Mexican political scene and the particular circumstances and interests of the players involved in the recent presidential election are what allowed the Oaxacan problem to grow out of control.

That was up to the election. Why has it been allowed to get to where it is now, post election?

Congratulations Guy you have managed to drag me into this despite my better intentions.

I�m off to lunch and a wee siesta. Perhaps in the afternoon we can determine the answer to the above question.

Hint: it would leave a terrible example to have a government not elected by the people with no intentions of governing for the people removed from office by the people.

[delacosta]

Oh and one more thing. I'd kill for moonraven's input on all this...

[MO39]

delacosta,

Rant on! Rarely have rants been so clearly written; thanks for your input and insights.

MO

[Guy Courchesne]

Like I said before, there should be a law whereby a full recount is automatic. Since there isn't one, the current law will have to do, since those laws aren't written to favour anyone.

I find it curious that while AMLO is in the streets shouting a popular slogan of voto por voto (vote by vote), he's in the electoral courtroom rather quietly only contesting a portion of the ballot. That's the knee-jerk I refer to. They presented complaints for some 40% of voting stations, not all of them. As we know, 9% were recounted.

Credibility is lost when you say 'there was widespread fraud! We have to count all of them!' but you only really believe there was fraud in a portion of them. Why the need to speak to supporters one way, and speak to TRIFE another? The truth doesn't really keep your supporters fired up, does it?

You use measuring someone's height as an analogy, now let me try one. Say a company produces 41,000,000 widgets in a day, through 130,000 machines. Final tally of all those machines is in question, so we go and look at the maintenance record and compare it to the tallies of each machine. Looks like some of the machines counted incorrectly. Do we recount the whole lot or do we take a closer look at the machines that failed, fix them, and count those again?

[dmb]

[Guy Courchesne]

Happens all the time. Shouldnta taken that left at Alberkerque, doc.

PAN-PRI-PRD wrangling can be best shown in the desafuero case starting in 2001 and culminating in 2005. Here is a clear cut case of old-style politicking vs the law. We watched this in DF, as well as other shenanigans pulled off by an increasingly populist Lopez Obrador during his DF administration.

The desafuero stemmed from a landowner in DF suing the DF government over a botched land appropriatin. This started in the PRD adminitration prior to AMLO's but he's the one who defied the court in a simple business vs business vs government case.

The DF government sold a parcel of land to a company that put up a private hospital. Turns out the government screwed up the deal by failing to take into account a connecting bit of land for road access. All they could do was build the road anyway, across adjoining property belonging to someone else. That someone else sued in a federal court and obtained an injunction barring construction until the csse could be settled. Quite a reasonable settlement, no? This is in March of 2001...many years before the federal elections of 2006.

AMLO disregarded the injunction and continued construction. Here's where the political intrigue begins. Years later, AMLO supporters cry foul and claim the desafuero is an attempt to knock AMLO out of presidential contention. What's actually going on is this. AMLO and the DF government find themselves in a tough spot. The contract for the land sale to the private hospital owners has not been fulfilled and the potential loss to the DF government if sued is 37 million USD, and, there's a deadline, as would be normal when we're talking about building, construction, loans, and interest payments for large projects like this.

So what is AMLO to do? The plaintiff land owner is waiting in court for DF to respond. Big pressure from a big money mistake and a larger bill to pay on the other side. Let's play the waiting game.

The original injunction goes ingnored. The land owner wants some judicial resolution, but the Attorney General sees nothing but problems ahead. Laws are still unclear in suing the government or a head of government, as AMLO was directly named in the injuction since he is responsible official. All of this is a minor offense, but it can't be cleared because of the problem of 111th article of the Mexican constitution giving immunity from prosecution to elected officials, except when Congress decides by majority vote to strip immunity from said official. The process is similar to impeachment hearings in the US.

Here's where it gets political. This is an untested set of laws, and no one really wants to be the first to try them, but AMLO continues to ignore the federal court injunction that orders a stop to construction on someone else's property. AMLO really has no choice since getting sued for 37 million by the hospital would kill him politically. He'll wait it out. By 2004, it's clear he's going to run for president, and this whole desafuero thing might play into his hands.

The Attorney General, under pressure from the plaintiff landowner (and I'm sure from the PAN and PRI) finally acts. That's his job...uphold the law. Due process in this case requires handing it to Congress to seek the stripping of his immunity in order to face charges stemming from the 2001 case. This turns out to be a very good thing for AMLO. PAN walked into the PRD trap.

While the case is debated in Congress, PRD changes its bylaws to allow for a potentially jailed candidate to stand for office...a clear thumb0in-the eye to Mexican law. AMLO organizes rallies and a campaign saying 'look, look, they're trying to knock me out of the race for president.'

The whole thing turns into a real mess. AMLO's immunity was lifted, but the whole case is in appeals. Because these laws have never been tested before, there is dissent between Congress and the DF government (heded by PRD) as to who should have the right and responsibility to impeach the chief of the DF government. Removing immunity for a president, state governor, or congressmen resides with the federal Congress, but because the status of the DF government changed only relatively recently, laws were not re-written to to include what is no longer the regentof Mexico City (neither a city nor a state, technically).

Basically, PRD is fighting with the PRI and PAN to see who should prosecute AMLO. No one doubts he's guilty.

The landowner? Still waiting.

Fox and PAN badly mishandled the whole affair. This was a simple legal issue turned ugly because AMLO saw the potential in it. What it represented most for Fox was a dismantling of the notion in 2000 that a new government could usher in a rule of law and real change in Mexico. When they tried, PRD pulled out the old PRI handbook they'd inherited and politicized the whole affair.

This is where AMLO gets his populist label. This is why the majority of Mexicans cannot support him and voted for opposing candidates. They've watched him make a mockery of the idea that a country can be ruled by law. They've watched as yet another politician commits a crime in office, and gets away with it.

He's a great orator, and he can rally the troops. He's even got a good message, though I don't buy for a minute that he's interested in his own supporters. Shady types like this only interested in covering their behinds do not belong in power, just as in Oaxaca. Mexico dodged a bullet last July 2nd.

[delacosta]

Good afternoon, back from lunch and no siesta.
My wife and I were watching 24. Somehow I got addicted last Christmas when her family were watching an episode of the first season and I innocently got caught up in it. Next think I know it was 2 am and I was grinding my teeth and jonesing on the edge of my seat. We finished that season over the holidays and scored a connection for the rest of the bootleg seasons, which we brought back to Oaxaca with us. We just brought back season 5 with us from DF and have been binging on a few episodes a day. Each episode is only about 35 minutes without ads. Sometimes I cheer for the bad guys. My wife goes berserk with tension when we watch and is madly in love with Jack Bauer, who she says I resemble. I still don�t think that�s an excuse to be yelling out JACK when we�re making love�
Anyways I mention this as a reason for perhaps being more susceptible to conspiracy theories. Not really.
Back to Oaxaca and the pending questions.
The main reason the PAN are so scared of the consequences of the governor of Oaxaca falling is quite obvious: if Ulysis is sacked due to popular pressure then the odds of the same thing happening to Calderon increase exponentially. First it would be Ruiz, then the next indefensible PRI governor, Mario Mar�n, of �gober precioso� fame. Both of these characters are still in power only as a result of the PRI�s promise to stay on side with the PAN. Lack of any major media attention and criticism of course helps the cause. Public opinion should be outraged that lowlife pimps the likes of Gamboa are making laws in the Mexican congress and actually heading the PRI contingent. Actually it is outraged, just not presented as such in most media.
The only way PAN can pass through congress the privatization of Pemex, the application of IVA on food and medicine and the scrapping of Mexican labour laws is with PRI�s support. The question of the hour is whether PAN is willing to back a tyrant like Ulysis in order to guarantee their agenda. The only way to keep Ulysis in power at this point is appearing more and more likely to be through the use of force-once again due to Fox�s inexperience and ineptness. Fox is tired and does not want to face the facts. He doesn�t want to be remembered as the President that left with blood on his hands. It must grate on him enough that he is now associated with the death of democracy in Mexico. No wonder he�s on prozac. Back when he met with the military to discuss using force to dislodge the Reforma protesters he was told by the generals that they would move in and do what they were ordered to do. He was told however that he would have to give the order in writing. Thankfully he didn�t have what it takes to do put his name on the order.
If force is used it would set a disturbing and worrisome precedent making the environment in which Calderon will attempt to take office that much more difficult. There is currently a well organized opposition with a leader who still has millions of loyal supporters across the country-especially in the south where this is centered. This could be a true test for Calderon in which he could actually do what is right, not what is politically beneficial. His image right now is of a sneaky little runt who just stole the election and out of fear of his own countrymen is seen running in and out the back doors at public events protected by massive amounts of American football players with big sticks and shields all dressed in black.
The completely staged press- conference in which his spokeswoman read a letter to the IFE asking that the votes not be destroyed just yet, took no questions and quickly left the room convinced absolutely no one. This after having all throughout the contesting of the election adamantly stating that no recount was necessary and the mere suggestion of such was an insult to Mexicans and against the law!
Running a 24 hour loop of television spots trying to convince people of the cleanliness of the recent elections and the impeccable performance of the institutions involved will not convince the majority of Mexicans that Calderon is the man who should be in the presidential chair.
He might gain a bit of respect if he put on some pantalones and started to act like a president who has supposedly just won an election and replace Ulysis. At this point it wouldn�t matter if he were to be replaced by Ruiz�s own twin brother, it would make everyone (in Oaxaca) happy. Nobody in Oaxaca actually wants Ruiz to remain in power, many at this point would accept him in order for school to start again and some degree of normalcy to return to the city, but all except the most die hard inner circle Ruiz Priistas, if asked, believe that he should be removed from power.
Since Calderon knows that he�s not legitimate he�s not likely to behave as if so any time soon. Besides he would have to go back on all the deals he�s made to get where he is. There are some pretty powerful people involved. I noticed on Monday that La Jornada was the only media to report on the meeting in Banff Alberta Canada between some of Calderon�s top people and the likes of George Shultz, Peter Lougheed, Stockwell Day, Gordon O�Connor and Donald Rumsfield to discuss North American security and energy issues. I wonder why it was all so hush- hush?
http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2006/09/25/003n1pol.php
Apparently no actual politicians were needed at the Forbes sponsored CEO Forum last week in which Mexican business leaders including Carlos Slim met to discuss how to best go about doing business (slicing up Mexico without any limitations now that congress and PRI are on side with the government for business by businessmen) when the new administration officially takes over.
Anyway back to Oaxaca: how this problem is dealt with will set the tone for the incoming administration as well as setting the precedent as to how the plethora of unresolved social problems will be dealt with in the near future, not even daring to contemplate looking at the rest of the sexenio, which is currently still not assured to be governed by Calderon. The very near future, ie. the two months leading up to December 1 when Calderon will attempt to officially take office will be take shape as a result of what goes down in Oaxaca.
Remember that Obrador is also set to �take office� November 20, the day that Mexico�s Revolution is celebrated, in the zocalo of Mexico City. The� resistencia pacifica� has been remarkably peaceful up to now. It is a truly incredible feat that 2 million people could march through a city and not a single window be broken. The citizens involved in this resistance have so far shown outstanding levels of restraint and maturity. The more radical elements of the Mexican left have not had reason to rise to the forefront of this movement and the more moderate voices have been given preference; unlike Oaxaca where the more radical members of the political and social movements have been given opportunity to rise to the forefront due to the bumbling of the federal government.

[Guy Courchesne]

What I fail to understand is the left's persistence in linking PAN to the PRI. While they find it expedient in Congress to work together on some issues, they have consistently been at odds with each other. PRD paints themselves as the victim of a grand consipiracy by the other two parties, but the reality is much more maleable, depending on what part of the country you find yourself in.

Let's not forget that PRD and PRI are from the same stock of people, and PAN are the outsiders, swept to limited power in 2000 by an electorate tired of PRI (Madrazo, AMLO, and similar) and their ways.

I'd been waiting on that announcement on whether or not they'd be destroying the votes. I'll tell you that if the votes had been destroyed, I'd be the first to denounce it. Calderon took a page out of the AMLO playbook in calling a press conference to play the media. Politicans are bred in vats I think.