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Japan's declining popluation

 
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nonsmoker



Joined: 20 Apr 2007
Posts: 352
Location: Exactly here and now.

PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2007 4:11 pm    Post subject: Japan's declining popluation Reply with quote

This recent article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6624049.stm shows that the number of children born in Japan is declining at an alarming rate and will ultimately affect the population. Does this concern anybody? I'm not even in Japan yet but as a prospective teacher, I can just imagine how it will affect me in finding a Job and probably significantly lower my chances of upward mobility on the careel ladder. Any thoughts?
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AndyH



Joined: 30 Sep 2004
Posts: 417

PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2007 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is an issue that is much talked-about in Japan, and possible solutions people discuss include encouraging emigration, as well as offering incentives for people to have more children. Already, most cities offer a cash payout for residents who have a baby. When my wife and I had our baby, our city reimbursed us for nearly all the cost of the delivery, for which we were very appreciative. Still, more progress needs to be made, especially in regards to the workplace. Women should be allowed to take maternity leave, and of course, people should not be expected to work 12-16 hours per day, leaving little or no time for their family obligations. My wife has friends who want to have more kids, but simply have no time for it.
As for how this trend will effect you, I really don't see cause for alarm. These effects are gradual, and a noticable difference won't be felt for a couple of decades.
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markle



Joined: 17 Jan 2003
Posts: 1316
Location: Out of Japan

PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 1:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AndyH wrote:
encouraging emigration,
they're getting people to leave?
one option rarely discussed is a major war - nothing sparks a baby boom like a major conflict.

Seriously, the declining birthrate crisis is a few years off. In terms of the education sector the crunch will be felt first and foremost at the tertiary level. Uni are already avoiding giving tenure because they don't want to overstaff as enrillments start to shrink. On the upside as families have more to spend on the rugrats so we should expect an increased emphasis on qualitive rather than quantative aspects of education.

Personally I don't think the maternty leave etc issue is going to have a significant impact the birthrate. More women in the workforce will, however ameliorate some of the effects of the greying population.
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Chris21



Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 366
Location: Japan

PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The declining birth rate used to disturb me, too. No matter how you look at it, Japan will need fewer and fewer teachers. However, a couple of silver linings to consider.

1) No matter how much the population declines, Japan will always require English teachers. If you can keep yourself marketable by building your resume, you'll be fine. The teachers on the bubble are the ones that get lazy and haven't improved themselves since they got off the plane. If you can occasionally get a teaching qualification, improve your language abilities, make important contacts, and/or build-up some good experience, you should have no problem finding work for as long as you want to stay here.

2) Despite the population decline, at least salaries are relatively stable. Sure, salaries at an eikaiwa haven't increased, but at least they haven't collapsed (generally hovering at 250,000 a month). I think with a booming economy in China and their need for English teachers, any downward pressure on salaries in Japan will only last for the next 10-20 years. Once China gets close to Japan in terms of salary, there'll be a tipping point and a lot of Japanese-based teachers will shift to China. When that happens, Japanese employers will try harder to retain teachers (and offering better salaries is a key selling point). Granted, this is a more long-term scenario, but if your plan is to teach in Japan for a long time, this may be an important consideration.
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6810



Joined: 16 Nov 2003
Posts: 309

PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 2:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't wait for population decline!

Less people = less demand = more supply (like land!!!!!) = cheap land!!!!

= less people on the Shinkansen etc...
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AndyH



Joined: 30 Sep 2004
Posts: 417

PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 5:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry, Markle! I meant "immigration"!
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chris wrote:
Quote:
Despite the population decline, at least salaries are relatively stable. Sure, salaries at an eikaiwa haven't increased, but at least they haven't collapsed (generally hovering at 250,000 a month).
"Hovering" may be a relative word. In the last couple of years, eikaiwas have danced around legal requirements to call employees full-time vs. part-time by juggling the number of classroom hours they use. And, I think a careful look at the salaries will show that the average has fallen from a pretty steady 250,000-270,000 yen/month to the current 200,000 to 250,000. People are desperate enough to accept less than what has been the standard for almost 20 years, so wages go down.

I agree with Chris that making oneself marketable is key, but there will always be Joe Newcomer who charges 1000 yen/lesson for private lessons and gets beaten out over Joe ExperiencedNqualified who charges 3000-4000.
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