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YouHadMeAtASL
Joined: 30 May 2007
Posts: 60
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 Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 8:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Anyone have any opinions on what may happen to those who were recently accepted to Nova? Do you think they'll follow through with the job offers? |
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stillnosheep
Joined: 01 Mar 2004
Posts: 2068
Location: eslcafe
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 9:43 pm Post subject: |
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It will all depend on Nova's cashflow in the next couple of months, on just how much, if any, money it can raise to cover the short-term losses that are likely to accrue, and, crucially, on just what happens to student numbers in the next month or so and how many branches it has to close.
But I wouldn't hold my breath. If the figures being bandied about at the moment are anywhere near correct then Nova is haemorrhaging money at a rate of knots that make it unlikely it will be able to survive the year in anything like its present form.
Try to get your COE, and look out for other job ads. |
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Zzonkmiles
Joined: 05 Apr 2003
Posts: 309
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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Potential fallout:
1. A glut of unemployed English teachers will allow other eikaiwas to lower their salaries. If you don't want to work for 180,000 yen/month, someone else will!
2. Schools can demand more from their applicants in terms of qualifications. A bachelor's degree might have been enough at first, but now schools might be able to demand a master's degree AND TEFL/TESL certification.
3. Regular people might wanna pay less for private lessons. Why pay you 5000 yen/hour for your private lesson when they can get another lesson from another teacher for 2000 yen/hour?
4. A lot of foreigners will simply leave Japan. Look for a lot of the older teachers on their fifth or sixth contract and their high salaries (due to raises) to not get their contracts renewed. These people might have been out of the game so long that they can't handle the job circuit again after a 4 or 5 year absence.
5. There will likely be a freeze on new hires.
6. People at other eikaiwas who were thinking about quitting their jobs might be more inclined to stay put because the job market is about to become even tougher.
7. A lot of shady schools may open overnight to take advantage of the new glut of English teachers.
Man, what a terrible situation. But NOVA had it coming. I have a good friend who still works there. I hope he's doing okay... |
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rai
Joined: 19 Jun 2005
Posts: 119
Location: Osaka
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 11:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Zzonkmiles wrote: |
Potential fallout:
1. A glut of unemployed English teachers will allow other eikaiwas to lower their salaries. If you don't want to work for 180,000 yen/month, someone else will!
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If Nova goes under I expect a rather large drop in eikaiwa salaries, too. It will be interesting to see how this plays out: The Japanese government has a long history of bailing out businesses, and I suspect they REALLY don't want to unleash 5-6,000 unemployed foreigners on Japan.
Letting sick companies succumb to market forces was one of Koizumu's pet reforms, but what will happen to that now that he's gone? Is someone else in the government taking up the banner of market reforms? Abe seems more worried about people singing the national anthem at graduation ceremonies than fixing the economy. |
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furiousmilksheikali
Joined: 31 Jul 2006
Posts: 1660
Location: In a coffee shop, splitting a 30,000 yen tab with Sekiguchi.
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 11:44 pm Post subject: |
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Is this the end for NOVA?
Well, NOVA's imminent demise has been predicted many times in the past and they've often been bailed out. I don't know the full history but how many times have we heard "This is the end for NOVA!"
One interesting thing is that this is supposedly the first time that the government has intervened in an eikaiwa's business practices. I think this could set a precedent that might make a few less-well-heeled eikaiwa companies sit up and take notice. |
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partialtone
Joined: 09 May 2007
Posts: 137
Location: CA
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:35 am Post subject: |
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| Hm, I guess I'll just have to wait and see then. I'll give the San Francisco office a call in a few weeks after the news has settled. Heh, this blows... |
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stillnosheep
Joined: 01 Mar 2004
Posts: 2068
Location: eslcafe
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:50 am Post subject: |
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| Zzonkmiles wrote: |
Potential fallout:
1. A glut of unemployed English teachers will allow other eikaiwas to lower their salaries. If you don't want to work for 180,000 yen/month, someone else will!
2. Schools can demand more from their applicants in terms of qualifications. A bachelor's degree might have been enough at first, but now schools might be able to demand a master's degree AND TEFL/TESL certification.
3. Regular people might wanna pay less for private lessons. Why pay you 5000 yen/hour for your private lesson when they can get another lesson from another teacher for 2000 yen/hour?
4. A lot of foreigners will simply leave Japan. Look for a lot of the older teachers on their fifth or sixth contract and their high salaries (due to raises) to not get their contracts renewed. These people might have been out of the game so long that they can't handle the job circuit again after a 4 or 5 year absence.
5. There will likely be a freeze on new hires.
6. People at other eikaiwas who were thinking about quitting their jobs might be more inclined to stay put because the job market is about to become even tougher.
7. A lot of shady schools may open overnight to take advantage of the new glut of English teachers. |
The above analysis seems overly pessimistic:
1. Many ex-Nova teachers would simply pack up and leave Japan. Japan will become a much less attractive destination for those wishing to teach for a year or two after graduation.
2. There are not so many eikaiwa employees with such qualifications and salaries would have to increase massively to attract them from outside Japan.
3. Possibly. There would likely be a short term glut of un(der)employed gaijin in Japan if Nova were to fail, at least in the big cities. The bottom end of the market might become tight, but remember those 480,00 students looking for new teachers.
4. Very possible.
5. Unlikely. The other eikiwa would still need to recruit new employees to replace departing staff, and they will be looking to expand to fill the hole left behind by Nova. But there may need to recruit less new staff from outside Japan for a while.
6. Quite possibly.
7. Again, quite possibly, but the market at the bottom end has been shown to be a tough one.
Of course, once Nova shares fall sufficiently to make the carcass look tempting, oustide investors may step, close down (or sell off) the unprofitable branches, and carry on with a leaner fitter 'nova' Nova.
It could even lead to better govt regulation of the industry to prevent such an embarrasment from occuring again. And there again Nova might just sell off as much as it can and somehow muddle through, smaller and somewhat chastened but still in the game.
All in all it's far too soon to start thinking about wage cuts. The publicity fall out could lead to massive drops in overseas applicants for eilkaiwa jobs, which may even help the job market in the medium term. The English market in Japan doesn't need Nova. If it fails it fails. I still think Nova is more likely to call a halt to overseas recruitment and slim itself down through natural wastage. It must lose around 3000 teachers a year anyway. Of course if they are all released at once balls of steel will be required by those wishing to tough it out in Japan. |
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stillnosheep
Joined: 01 Mar 2004
Posts: 2068
Location: eslcafe
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 1:04 am Post subject: |
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| YouHadMeAtASL wrote: |
| Anyone have any opinions on what may happen to those who were recently accepted to Nova? Do you think they'll follow through with the job offers? |
It will depend on how many unprofitable branches that they have to close. But assuming that they stay afloat they will still need new teachers, just not as many as they expected to need. I would however expect some postponements in start-dates as they shuffle existing employees around first.
But remember, this is just opinion. I'd keep a close eye on their share price to see how the Japanese stock market rates Nova's chances. |
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gaijinalways
Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 2279
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 1:47 am Post subject: |
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With 926 schools, some apples will fall off the tree. That will free up some students, and hopefully this might lead to more legislation regulating language schools here in Japan. For some reason, I am not holding my breath too long.
But with Nova's troubles, the other big schools will definitely benefit and be able to recruit more students and teachers. I expect to see more of both at my part-time employment. All and all, not bad for business.
And Nova's reputation? What's that? |
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southofreality
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Posts: 579
Location: Tokyo
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 3:37 am Post subject: |
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| furiousmilksheikali wrote: |
Is this the end for NOVA?
Well, NOVA's imminent demise has been predicted many times in the past and they've often been bailed out. I don't know the full history but how many times have we heard "This is the end for NOVA!"
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Exactly.
This is just a six-month suspension. The government gave NOVA the smackdown, but is not seeking to put them out of business. NOVA will endure this hardship and get back to creating long-term contracts again by January of next year.
For those who really believe NOVA will go under because of this, care to make a little wager? |
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gaijin4life
Joined: 23 Sep 2006
Posts: 150
Location: Westside of the Eastside, Japan
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:07 am Post subject: |
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Interviewing weekly in Toronto for over 300 AEON branches across Japan!
AEON -- Tuesday, 12 June 2007, at 11:24 a.m. |
http://www.eslcafe.com/joblist/
Reading the writing on the wall, perhaps ... !?! |
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Eva Pilot
Joined: 19 Mar 2006
Posts: 351
Location: Far West of the Far East
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:20 am Post subject: |
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| I will put sen yen down saying NOVA is not going anywhere. |
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Temujin
Joined: 14 Sep 2005
Posts: 90
Location: Osaka
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:32 am Post subject: |
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| Even if the government is willing to allow Nova to go bust without intervening, I certainly don't think they would be the ones to pull the trigger. The government wouldn't have imposed this sanction if they though it would put Nova out of business. |
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sallycat
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 303
Location: behind you. BOO!
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 5:25 am Post subject: |
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| does anyone know if other members of the big 4 have been using similar tactics? |
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gaijin4life
Joined: 23 Sep 2006
Posts: 150
Location: Westside of the Eastside, Japan
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 8:42 am Post subject: |
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| does anyone know if other members of the big 4 have been using similar tactics? |
Hard-sell; repeat hard-sell; repeat hard-sell. A `let no potential student get way approach` Coerce (sp?) exisiting students into signing-up for more courses and buying more books and resources that they really, honestly - in the best interests of their English study, DO NOT NEED ... 
Apart from that, no idea ... |
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