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JonnyBravo · Joined: 30 Oct 2006 Posts: 80 Location: Bogota, Colombia

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i3-gy-m2ViT4af14BjcC-rOHaWrgD8V60E6G0

Is this all posturing or is it a legitimate threat? The line about bombing at night with precision accuracy makes me wonder if this was just a US military incursion done with Colombian approval. Thoughts?

Guy Courchesne · Joined: 10 Mar 2003 Posts: 9650 Location: Mexico City

My thoughts...nothing new in a region tortured by ideology, drugs, and oil. My prediction? More people dead, cocaine still flowing north, and the same political diatribes keeping the masses buying, revolting, afraid, and alone.

nineisone · Joined: 23 Jun 2006 Posts: 187

Colombia receives much of its military technology(and training) through the U.S. in the guise of fighting the cocaine trade. However, I don't read this as U.S. involvement. Possibly diplomatic pressure to act on FARC, but Uribe has rarely needed the motivation from the U.S.

As mentioned, the beat goes on in this region but any declaration of potential war by Venezuela is strictly political posturing. Sort of a Latin American variation of the old "wag the dog" trick. Rally your base around a perceived international crisis and then deflect that energy toward further pushing your domestic agenda through.

Let's also recall the recent border skirmish between Peru-Ecuador that looked like it might boil over into war, but ended with the same nasty territorial dispute between the two nations that had been going on for years.

Guy Courchesne · Joined: 10 Mar 2003 Posts: 9650 Location: Mexico City

Well, here's a new twist, courtesy of everyone's favorite source of unbiased news, CNN.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/03/ecuador.colombia/index.html

JonnyBravo · Joined: 30 Oct 2006 Posts: 80 Location: Bogota, Colombia

I don't care how organized they are, there is no way a guerrilla group is going to enrich uranium and make a bomb...

Plus when you're fighting a domestic conflict, nuking your opponent wouldn't seem like a logical course of action (not that nuking is ever a logical course of action.) If this thing about Chavez giving FARC money doesn't go away, I could see the US getting much more involved on the Colombian side. Whether US involvement is public or not is another story entirely.

Justin Trullinger · Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:05 am Post subject:

What a lot of fun we have around here.

The terrorist use for uranium would be a "dirty" bomb, which uses conventional explosives to scatter toxic or radioactive material.

Course, it still wouldn't make any sense. Any more than Ecuador's president would benefit from involvement with the FARC. At the end of the day, if something sounds this fishy...

Justin

ajarnlilly · Joined: 28 Dec 2006 Posts: 35 Location: Managua Nicaragua

Yeah, I smell US involvement. Probably not the actual bombing, but the instigation, equipment and "advice".

The US military machine is still irked that Correa won't extend the lease on the US base at Manta after next year, essentially depriving the US of a legitimate reason to be in Ecuador. American contractors will lose hundreds of millions for no longer being able to spray herbicides on indigenous people and legitimate crops, by helicopter.

This is the first time I've heard of the rebels in the jungle having computers. Have I missed something? I thought they just dropped in at some internet cafe... Laughing

JonnyBravo · Joined: 30 Oct 2006 Posts: 80 Location: Bogota, Colombia

Justin,

I'm not particularly concerned about the obscure, unverified uranium reference. My point was to dismiss it entirely. The accusation that Chavez gave a large sum money to FARC is, on the other hand, a little bit scary and entirely plausible. I'm not an expert on Latin American politics, but I sincerely doubt Correa and Ecuador had anything to do with this, with the exception of being on the receiving end of a minor military incursion. The current US administration loves to get cuddly with the Colombian government and would bite at the chance to support somebody tossing Chavez from power. I don't think I'm connecting too many dots in concluding this could be a bigger problem in the near future. Another distinct possibility is that the US could simply tug on the Colombian leash and squash this before it gets any bigger. I'm hoping for the latter.

Jon

Justin Trullinger · Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:01 am Post subject:

YOu're very right about potential scariness. As for the poster who smells US involvement...how could it be otherwise? The US gives more "military aid" to Colombia than anyone else in the hemisphere. And "quien paga, manda."

It's looking a bit ugly, but I imagine that it will fizzle on its own, after some diplomatic chest beating. You can say that it doesn't have much to do with Ecuador...but we got invaded. In any case, though- Colombia will go on posturing, but wouldn't risk war with Venezuela, at least not while the US is so embroiled in other areas that forthcoming aid will be financial only. Or so we're all hoping.

Best,

Justin

naturegirl321 · Joined: 04 May 2003 Posts: 9041 Location: home sweet home

Seems like everyone wants to start a war with someone these days, just look at Bush.

Guy Courchesne · Joined: 10 Mar 2003 Posts: 9650 Location: Mexico City

ajarnlilly · Joined: 28 Dec 2006 Posts: 35 Location: Managua Nicaragua

lozwich · Joined: 25 May 2003 Posts: 1536

I'm not sure what to make of it, there are lots of differing opinions on the ground here, but there's something stinky going on methinks, especially since some of the stories just don't add up.

And yes FARC has computers. They even have their own website, or should I say had, because I haven't been able to get onto it since this all happened.

ajarnlilly · Joined: 28 Dec 2006 Posts: 35 Location: Managua Nicaragua

[quote="Guy Courchesne"]

Guy Courchesne · Joined: 10 Mar 2003 Posts: 9650 Location: Mexico City

Ok, the dictionary wins.

But come on now, let's use some common sense. Colombian forces chasing other Colombians over a jungle border probably at best marked out by a local basil or mangrove. Sure Ecuador has the right to complain, but is it really cause for war? It takes one hell of a right-wing nut to complain that your neighbour peed a few inches over your property line and if not a right-wing nut, then a far left nut. Either way, nobody's home in the rational middle and everyone's left distracted from real issues.