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Tom Le Seelleur
Joined: 27 Dec 2007
Posts: 242
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 Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:05 am Post subject: Iran |
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| What do people think about the risks to the region and the UAE if diplomacy fails with Iran? |
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moralleader1
Joined: 15 Oct 2007
Posts: 69
Location: USA
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:08 am Post subject: |
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| USA will never attack Iran since they have been friends behind the doors and Tom & Jerry on the international scene. They need each other and they have to boost up oil prices since they both benefit from the big profit. |
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kiefer
Joined: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 268
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 4:58 am Post subject: |
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I agree that the US would never attack Iran. The concern is Israel launching sorties against suspected nuclear installations. They got away with it in Iraq and recently, it seems, in Syria.
How this would play out internationally is subject to so much conjecture, it's anybody's guess as to the aftermath.
However, I think it's obvious that the GCC would rally behind Iran, putting Shia/Sunni rivalries aside and the Straits of Hormuz would remain open.
I wonder if Joe Six Pack back in the US would still turn a blind eye to Zionist oppression if he would have to pay 10 dollars a gallon for gas as a result?
On the EFL front, the comfort levels for jobs in this region would greatly depend on a US response to such on attack on Iran by the Zionists. If the US mumbles something about Israel having a right to defend itself, US teachers could be put in an awkward position. |
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mishmumkin
Joined: 01 Sep 2007
Posts: 929
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 4:59 am Post subject: |
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| Ok, but what do we make of this article in the Gulf News http://www.gulfnews.com/region/Iran/10227943.html ? Is it just blowing smoke? Is it the Gulf News trying to demonize Israel (more than usual)? |
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mandalayroad
Joined: 11 Mar 2008
Posts: 115
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:27 am Post subject: |
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| To those in the know I'm curious what happened in 2003 during the Iraq invasion... did it have any immediate effect on classes, schedules or jobs in the Gulf for foreign (read allied country) teachers? Just trying to prognosticate what the aftermath of a US and/or Israeli strike on Iran might entail? |
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moralleader1
Joined: 15 Oct 2007
Posts: 69
Location: USA
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:29 am Post subject: |
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Well, if it really happens, here is the line:
I am from Canada and carry a Maple Leaf flag. Oh! Do not forget to speak with Huh accent or newfie and you will be saved. |
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redeyes
Joined: 21 Jun 2007
Posts: 254
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:55 am Post subject: |
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...."the recent sniping has been ominous. "We are sandwiched between Iran on the one hand and Israel and the US on the other," said Mustafa Alani of the Gulf Research Centre in Dubai. "We feel that we are going to be victims."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/10/middleeast.iran |
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007
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2684
Location: UK/Veteran of the Magic Kingdom
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: Re: Iran |
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| Tom Le Seelleur wrote: |
| What do people think about the risks to the region and the UAE if diplomacy fails with Iran? |
Well, if Iran is attacked by US or Israel, I guess the following scenario will happen:
1. Iran will retaliate by firing long range missiles type Zelzal (earthquake) and Shahab-3 (range up to 2500 km) on Tel Aviv. The first group of missiles will be without neclear or biological warhead, this will be a warning.
2. Iran will fire a second group of medium range missiles like Zelzal and Fateh on US naval fleet based in the Gulf waters and some of these missiles will hit Abu-Dhabi and Dubai by mistake! And I would guess at least 100 people will be killed in this attack.
3. The revolutionary guards of Iran will kidnap thousands of Western expat in the UAE, most of them will be Americans and British (of course I guess there will be English teachers amongst the hostages!  ). Iran will use the Western hostages to bargain with Uncle Sam.
4. The Gulf of Hormuz will closed, and the barrel of oil will reach $250, and the petrol stations in most of the European countries & USA will close, and there will be demonstrations all over Europe and USA against the war in the Gulf!
5. At the end of this conflict, and by agreement between the Mullahs in Tehran and Uncle Sam in Washington, with the mediation of Uncle Ban Ki-Moon, the hostages will be released and the war against Iran will stop, and the Russian (in secret) and China will provide more missile technology to the Mullah for any future conflict. And Uncle Sam will be happy because of the release of the American hostages including the English teachers!
BTW, the war agianst Iran will last not more than 7 days!
Prepare yourselves for any senario, including the above. |
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moralleader1
Joined: 15 Oct 2007
Posts: 69
Location: USA
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: Iran |
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[quote="007"]
| Tom Le Seelleur wrote: |
3. The revolutionary guards of Iran will kidnap thousands of Western expat in the UAE, most of them will be Americans and British (of course I guess there will be English teachers amongst the hostages! ). Iran will use the Western hostages to bargain with Uncle Sam.
Prepare yourselves for any senario, including the above. |
Well, I am just assuming that English Teachers will be the first ones to be kidnapped  due to their expertise in teaching English to ESL/EFL students . Once in Iran, they will be under extreme care (food/ hotel/AC/ babes and so forth) and their first students would be Iranian negotiators who need ENP (English for Negotiation Purposes).
Hope you like my scenario  . |
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mishmumkin
Joined: 01 Sep 2007
Posts: 929
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Once in Iran, they will be under extreme care (food/ hotel/AC/ babes and so forth) and their first students would be Iranian negotiators who need ENP (English for Negotiation Purposes). |
Ah, yes. I saw International House was offering a 120 hour course in TENP. |
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veiledsentiments
Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17644
Location: USA
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| mandalayroad wrote: |
| To those in the know I'm curious what happened in 2003 during the Iraq invasion... did it have any immediate effect on classes, schedules or jobs in the Gulf for foreign (read allied country) teachers? Just trying to prognosticate what the aftermath of a US and/or Israeli strike on Iran might entail? |
There was no effect on classes, schedules, or jobs in the Gulf, but there was a bit of blowback on individual teachers by individual students. Comments left on whiteboards and some verbal comments. Most teachers made it clear that they didn't support the activities of their own governments and things died down. Some people may have chosen to leave, but none of the experienced ME teachers that I know.
That said, all bets are off if Iran is hit.
I would guess that oil will hit more like $400-500 a barrel because though they will miss Tel Aviv... they will instead land on the Saudi and Kuwait oil fields... and the first step will be the total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz - which could take more than a year to re-open after hostilities end.
Let's just hope that that cooler heads prevail, not the arrogant morons who chose to make the last invasion in the area. I'm hoping that this article by one of the smarter pundits is accurate:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174953/why_cheney_won_t_take_down_iran
VS |
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tashidelek
Joined: 03 May 2009
Posts: 23
Location: beijing
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| Posted: Mon May 04, 2009 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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| i visited Iran during my summer vacation and i was shocked to see how much iranian people love american people. i guess that more than 90% of iranian will highly evaluate USA when they close their door |
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