Job Discussion Forums

[Hoser]

I see the Canadian dollar is down to 70 cents now. Wow I really should have held onto my money! I guess if we could all see the future then we would all be rich. I just checked and saw I now make the equivalent of almost $4000 Cdn a month-and I don't even make all that much money over here! I can't wait till i get my raise next year

[cornishmuppet]

I have to eat my words on my last post, with the pound now under 134 and still dropping. I have to say I'm loving this. My base salary (same as a JETs) works out right now at a fraction under 27k, which is a seriously decent UK salary. (My mother is deputy manager for a regional newspaper and only earns 28k). Starting to wish I hadn't give up 6man a month to move to high school, and every time a private cancels now it really seems to sting.

How low can it possibly go?

[JL]

"How low can it possibly go?"

THAT'S exactly the question to always keep in mind. When I first came to Japan in '85, the US dollar briefly reached 255 yen. (Some out there might remember when exchange rates were fixed at 360 yen to the dollar.) I was also in Japan in the mid-nineties when the dollar touched down to 79 yen. But all good things come to an end. The Japanese government has always been active in the currency markets, and they have both the yen and foreign currency reserves to reset exchange rates as they see fit. If this get's too painful for Japanese industry, be assured that the MOF will start dumping yen to buy up dollars (which will affect the yen versus most Western currencies).
My advice: you can't time this, so slowly start moving your yen into your home currency. And do so till you reach about 50% of your savings. That way you've locked in half of your booty, with the other half still in yen as a hedge.

[Apsara]

I agree, I would never have believed you if you had told me this time last year the yen would be down to �50 to the NZD a year later. It definitely makes me think harder about buying anything expensive when it costs me twice as much in NZD terms!

[markle]

[JL]

"...am a little puzzled why it hasn't (happened yet {Japanese support for the dollar})... Keeping the yen high keeps the price of imports low (especially oil)..."

With the recent bout of commodity inflation the world experienced, your point about oil now being cheaper from a yen base is a good one.

I don't pretend to know all the calculations made by the Japanese monetary mavens, but one thing they are surely considering is, "Have we seen the dollar fall as far as it it will go?" Because if more major financial shocks are on the U.S. horizon, then the dollar will plunge further. Remember, we already saw the greenback trade in the low 80-yen range about a decade ago (going as low as 79). So I would think that Japan wants to see the other shoe drop before they make their move. Propping up the U.S. dollar today, just to see General Motors, Ford and Chrysler fail next week, would be a waste of reserves.

We could actually see a major realignment between the yen and the dollar before all of this plays out. I've even heard of 50 yen to the dollar projections (but I'll believe that when I see it). Nevertheless, at the end of the day, Japan still has it's economy hitched to exports and to the U.S. consumer market. Eventually, they will make a move. It's just a matter of when they think the timing is right.

[flyer]

[JL]

"...drop kiwi drop"
Ha HA!
Or, "Fly yen, fly!", since I hope to be earning yen myself, by next spring.

[JL]

Now the Japanese government is, indeed, trying to jawbone down the yen vs. the dollar. As of this post, the yen fell back from a high of 87.14 to the USD, to 88.4. And it's weakened against the Euro as well. But if jawboning doesn't halt the rise, we may be about to see actual intervention in the markets. Minister of Finance Nakagawa and Cabinet Secretary Kawamura both broached the subject, yesterday.
I can't make up any of your minds for you. It's your money. But I do know that if I, myself, were holding any yen in savings, I would move 50 % of it into dollars, or my home currency, to lock in any gains up to this point. The other half I'd keep in yen as a hedge in case the yen continues its ascent.

[flyer]

all this talk of (Sony, Toyota etc) losing so much yen every day when the yen strengthens against the dollar below 100yen ..... it may be true but .....

they don't say the other side!
it has been way over 100 for the past few years! even getting to over 120yen. They must have made a fortune over the past few years, and just a few short months of strong yen and all hell breaks lose!
They should have continginces for changes in the yen/$, if they haven't then thats their own fault!

[ripslyme]

[cornishmuppet]

Agreed. Even sending yen home at these rates I'm still some way down on all the money I've sent over the last couple of years at 230 plus to the pound. If its still low in six months, then we're talking....

[JL]

"Even sending yen home at these rates I'm still some way down on all the money I've sent over the last couple of years at 230 plus to the pound."

Well, you can't get that back. But you still might want to take advantage of exchange rates now, or you'll really be kicking yourself.
On the other hand, if you send home money today, and by Christmas the yen is up another 10%...
Again, I can only speak for myself, but I'd be a regular hedgehog, halving my savings / earnings at set intervals.

[Never Ceased To Be Amazed]

[JL]

"Between '68 to '71 when I first lived in Japan..."

Those must have been the days! I used to know people who came over around the same time as you, and I enjoyed their descriptions of Japan. Anybody with a western-looking face opening up "language schools" in a dank, six tatami mat flat with a shared toilet, and getting rich! College degrees and accreditations?? Are you kidding me??? If someone could speak passable street Japanese, the could be in the movies. And the lawns surrounding the Imperial Palace used to be littered with used prophylactics from Friday and Saturday night liaisons between servicemen and the local femme fatales.

The mid-eighties, though the go-go years, still bore some resemblance to the hard-scrabble days of post-war Japan. Many people aged 30 and up in the 80's, still couldn't believe their country had become rich. The 80's was the bridge between the rags-to-riches post-war Japan, and the post-bubble era the country has been in for the last two decades. Now, we have two generations of people who only have memories of Japan from the bubble era on. I can barely recognize the Japan today from the country I first saw in '85. I can't even imagine what it looks like to someone who knew it in 1968.