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Japanese Recession
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just so you get the figures completely right, I believe that 12.7% drop was an annual rate, not a quarterly one. They extrapolated from the latest quarterly figures.
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JL



Joined: 26 Oct 2008
Posts: 241
Location: Las Vegas, NV USA

PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:
Just so you get the figures completely right, I believe that 12.7% drop was an annual rate, not a quarterly one. They extrapolated from the latest quarterly figures.


That's correct.
http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200902160248.html

Still pretty bleak news. But I'm beginning to be of the opinion that, hey, if there's pain to be felt, it's probably better to get on with it. Get all the bad stuff over and done with. The lost decade of the '90's was a death by a thousand cuts. Maybe this time the immediate pain will be worse, but the recovery can also start sooner. At least that's a silver lining I'm hoping to see...
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elkarlo



Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland

PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JL wrote:
Glenski wrote:
Just so you get the figures completely right, I believe that 12.7% drop was an annual rate, not a quarterly one. They extrapolated from the latest quarterly figures.


That's correct.
http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200902160248.html

Still pretty bleak news. But I'm beginning to be of the opinion that, hey, if there's pain to be felt, it's probably better to get on with it. Get all the bad stuff over and done with. The lost decade of the '90's was a death by a thousand cuts. Maybe this time the immediate pain will be worse, but the recovery can also start sooner. At least that's a silver lining I'm hoping to see...


You may be right. This may force the Japanese to chnage. While the 90's weren't bad enough to make them really do anything differently.

Oh and if the 12% drop continues into this year, that is Bad News Baears.
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cafebleu



Joined: 10 Feb 2003
Posts: 404

PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great thread!

Japan is in worse shape than the govt would have everybody believe. So is the US and my home country the UK for that matter.

It was interesting reading about how consumption patterns for some Japanese have not changed. However, think of the fact that much of this has been based on the unmarried men and women in their 20s and 30s who have had jobs and mostly lived with their parents.

Unlike Brits of my generation who got out early and paid rent or if they stayed home, paid 'board' to their parents (which was sometimes comparable in cost though cheaper), the Japanese younger workers have generally lived scot free in terms of housing expenses/food etc. Therefore that section of the J population had a high disposable income to spend on what they liked including designer gear and travel.

Those days are coming to an end as the Japanese quite rightly will turn to the tradition of savings to see them through the hard times. Think of the fact too that in a real economic downturn, women will be hit very hard in terms of low employment opportunities.

When I lived in Japan there were relatively few opportunities for women to have a real career apart from working in offices. Why do you think there are all those half baked 'women's colleges' with mediocre academic standards? They were mostly founded to give girls something to do in between high school graduation and marriage.

As companies lay off male workers, women will also lose their jobs. There will be even less opportunities for women, and less disposable income circulating in the economy. The Japanese also had a relatively high number of people travelling abroad since the late 70s, compared to countries such as the US. You'll also see that decline and far more sharply than you think.

JAL and ANA are doing worse and worse and some of this is due to declining passenger numbers. There will be less Japanese people travelling outside of Japan to destinations that are not in Asia.

Interesting comments too about the homeless and why the Japanese don't help those on the streets. There are cultural-historical reasons (same in Korea). The Japanese and Koreans I knew often glorified their family ties and the strength of families in their societies but as history shows, an overt emphasis on kinship to the exclusion of those who are not part of the family hinders the development of the notion of civil society where governing bodies emphasise an obligation to society as a whole.

In Korea this still exists to the point where seeing people in agony after they've been run over by a hit and run driver (often when the driver just ran through the pedestrian crossing although it was green for the pedestrian) while nobody except for the despised foreigner offers help, or in other bad situations, is a shocking and sadly common experience.

If we haven't been introduced I don't know you and don't have to extend even the minor courtesy of holding a door for you instead of slamming it in your face is common in Korea. The 'You are not my family/I haven't been introduced to you' is also common in Japan although in practice it is far less rude than the Korean version.

Hence there is no tradition of charitable institutions in Japan. And Buddhism also played a role in demeaning the outcasts and needy, much as I admire the ideas of Buddhism.

In Japan, many Buddhist monasteries and institutions traditionally upheld the outcast status of Burakumin until after the first decade or so of the 20th century.

In fact a few years back, Buddhist groups made public apologies for the Buddhist role in facilitating the discrimination against Burakumin. How many posters know that for centuries in Japan Buddhist monks gave new names to the deceased for a fee and in the case of Burakumin, many would give a name with associations of animals? I remember being shocked by hearing this from a group of private students who were ladies in their late 40s and yes, were Buddhists from different sects.

There is also the practical consideration that the Yakuza take a cut from those who beg on the streets. Same in Korea. That's why I rarely gave to those people with signs asking for money and sitting there for hours on the street. The Yaks take their cut so you are best off donating to a shelter that takes care of the homeless and others who are left to struggle in Japan.
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JL



Joined: 26 Oct 2008
Posts: 241
Location: Las Vegas, NV USA

PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cafeblue,
I hadn't thought about the Yakuza shaking down the street people. But I know for a fact they shake street vendors (for a very brief time, in my younger days, I was was a vendor who had to pay my monthly dues to "the boys." And no, my eagle-eyed moderator friends, I don't recommend to anyone to try that experience.). They shake down real estate developers. They shake down politicians. They shake down virtually anyone running otherwise legitimate, street level business in districts like Shinjuku. So why wouldn't they shake down the street people too?

Ditto the info about the Buddhist monks ripping off the Buraku when relatives would request a better name in the afterlife. Hadn't heard that, but don't find such accounts hard to believe. Well, a lot of old-world traditions die hard in a closed society such as Japan's. But we'll see how things shake out from the economic turmoil. Sometimes things need a good shaking.
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Apsara



Joined: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 2142
Location: Tokyo, Japan

PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cafebleu wrote:

There is also the practical consideration that the Yakuza take a cut from those who beg on the streets. Same in Korea. That's why I rarely gave to those people with signs asking for money and sitting there for hours on the street. The Yaks take their cut so you are best off donating to a shelter that takes care of the homeless and others who are left to struggle in Japan.


As I mentioned earlier in this thread, in 11 years here I have yet to see a single one of the many homeless I have seen asking for money (if they have signs with requests for money I would be able to read them). If any of them were actually asking for money I find it hard to believe that the yakuza would bother shaking them down for the pittance they might receive- can you post links to any articles documenting that this actually happens?
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JL



Joined: 26 Oct 2008
Posts: 241
Location: Las Vegas, NV USA

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 2:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apsara,
I'm not sure that's the type of activity that gets much coverage in the Japanese media. And I seriously doubt the foreign media is privy to much of the street scene in Japan. Can't say I recall ever seeing a beggar in Japan with a tin cup or sign set up, like we can see in the West. But I know for a fact that the homeless tent towns have their leaders (親分). And as we discussed about a week ago, apparently the homeless are on the increase, and more and more noticeable, these days. In neighborhoods where the Yakuza have a presence, they make anybody doing "anything" in the street, pay a tribute. I have zero doubt that they make people residing in the parks and on the street, also pay at least a token amount. There's no way they'd allow that, or anything else illegal, to take place outside of their purview. That's their turf.
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 3:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JL wrote:
Still pretty bleak news. But I'm beginning to be of the opinion that, hey, if there's pain to be felt, it's probably better to get on with it. Get all the bad stuff over and done with. The lost decade of the '90's was a death by a thousand cuts. Maybe this time the immediate pain will be worse, but the recovery can also start sooner.
Have you lived in Japan? That's not a smart-aleck question. Japanese are not known for making swift decisions, and the government here has changed prime ministers a heckuva lot in the past 5-7 years. Kiss any consistent policy goodbye. The current PM has been in office less than a year, and his approval rating is below 20%, and his finance minister just resigned for showing up drunk at a press conference after an international conference. http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20090219a2.html
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20090219a2.html
I don't see pain as being a short-lasting thing here at all.

Western logic and rationality doesn't work here.
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elkarlo



Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 4:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:
JL wrote:
Still pretty bleak news. But I'm beginning to be of the opinion that, hey, if there's pain to be felt, it's probably better to get on with it. Get all the bad stuff over and done with. The lost decade of the '90's was a death by a thousand cuts. Maybe this time the immediate pain will be worse, but the recovery can also start sooner.
Have you lived in Japan? That's not a smart-aleck question. Japanese are not known for making swift decisions, and the government here has changed prime ministers a heckuva lot in the past 5-7 years. Kiss any consistent policy goodbye. The current PM has been in office less than a year, and his approval rating is below 20%, and his finance minister just resigned for showing up drunk at a press conference after an international conference. http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20090219a2.html
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20090219a2.html
I don't see pain as being a short-lasting thing here at all.

Western logic and rationality doesn't work here.


Not that I am a big fan of Dogs and Demons, but the author is right about the Japanese stagnating somewhere in the 1970's and riding off that success. Seems they are afraid and unable to figure out how to change.

To be honest I am not sue what exactly they can do. Save for stopping pointless construction. Maybe use that money+effort to.........I duno to what end. They can't go low tech, as China will beat them at that, so they have to go even more high tech. I really don't see a good outcome.
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JL



Joined: 26 Oct 2008
Posts: 241
Location: Las Vegas, NV USA

PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 4:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:
Have you lived in Japan? That's not a smart-aleck question.

I beg your pardon! Since you know very well, by now, I've lived in Japan, that's entirely a smart-alecky question.
As for the rest of your post, all it does is speak to my point. Japanese society is notoriously slow to change, and usually requires external pressure before doing so, if it does so at all. Which is precisely why I see at least this much as a possible silver lining in the global economic doom and gloom. I did not declare this to be the inevitable outcome, however. What I said was, "Maybe this time the immediate pain will be worse, but the recovery can also start sooner. At least that's a silver lining I'm hoping to see..."
For the reading impaired, I couched my wistful thinking with indefinite terms "Maybe", "can"(as opposed to "shall"), and "I'm hoping to see..."
I do happen to think such an outcome is possible. I don't think or claim that it is assured.

You might want to stop lecturing others when you're not paying attention to what they have to say, or otherwise don't know the score, Glenski.
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