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		| dangerousapple 
 
 
 Joined: 18 Apr 2006
 Posts: 292
 
 
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				|  Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:13 am    Post subject: |   |  
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				| The economic crisis has most definitely hit the cram school industry.  I own two schools in Kaohsiung.  New enrollments for classes are down 25% compared with last year.  We've also had a number of students leave because their parents lost their jobs.  I'm having trouble protecting my teachers' hours.  They are all working fulltime for now, but if things don't pick up soon I'll have to start cancelling classes. 
 I know most people will never believe this, but it's better to be a teacher than an owner right now.
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		| MomCat 
 
 
 Joined: 02 Dec 2004
 Posts: 297
 
 
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				|  Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:49 pm    Post subject: |   |  
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	  | romanworld wrote: |  
	  | Are we living on the same island??? |  This is an interesting question and has come up before. I do sometimes wonder if Hsinchu is a little out of tune with the rest of Taiwan. Before the new year a little over 2% of the employees had been laid off in Science Park. Of the 97+% still working most took either a 15 or 20% cut in pay. That's not enough to stop spending the money to send their child to cram school. Not yet anyway.
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		| BigWally 
 
  
 Joined: 07 Jun 2006
 Posts: 765
 Location: Ottawa, CAN (prev. Kaohsiung "the Dirty South")
 
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				|  Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 7:02 pm    Post subject: |   |  
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				| Hsinchu does have a lot of white collar workers doesnt it? This could lead to the difference in perception. 
 The white collar areas are much different than the blue collar areas (ie. Kaohsiung) which are most likely the first to be hit when recession markets start rearing their ugly heads.
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		| MyTrunkshow 
 
  
 Joined: 21 Apr 2007
 Posts: 234
 Location: One map inch from Iraq
 
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				|  Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 2:25 am    Post subject: |   |  
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				| 25% is a big drop in enrolment year on year.   That's startling..are all those drops related to job loss and the crisis? If you layoff, will that be in the summer?  Sept/09 will be the big indicator of enrollment. 
 My old employer has gone from 150 students to 180 students.  That's a 15 % increase for September/08. Our school is not new.  Another Giraffe opened down the street in Yung Ho in the summer /08.  It didn't replace a closed school and all the kids come from Hsyou Lang Elementary.   A new building is being eyed for next year to deal with the increase.  This is in TPE County, across the river from Gongguan.
 
 Local market forces seem to be just as significant as the doom and gloom.
 
 If the crisis is here, then some schools are going to do better as some struggle, I suppose.   Call it cram school Darwinism.
 
 mts.
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		| craigzy 
 
 
 Joined: 20 Mar 2006
 Posts: 87
 Location: taichung
 
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				|  Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 8:39 am    Post subject: |   |  
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				| ive talked to about a dozen foreign teachers here in taichung that are looking for jobs or more hours and cant find them. |  | 
	
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		| timmyjames1976 
 
 
 Joined: 26 Jan 2005
 Posts: 148
 
 
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				|  Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:14 pm    Post subject: |   |  
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	  | MomCat wrote: |  
	  | I'm beginning to wonder if some of these post are written by "plants" living in Taiwan and writing to scare people off just to keep the competition down. 
 Not one of my friends or acquaintances have had a problem finding a job, even recently.
 
 
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 Plants? LOL.  Let's see, some people saying "No, don't put yourself into debt for an ESL job (potential ESL job).  That doesn't sound like we are trying to "scare" people.
 
 And well golly gee, YOUR friends and acquaintances must be just enough of a sample size to shed light on the entire economic state of Taiwan.  And how many of them happened to be job hunting in the last three months?
 
 The fact is, less schools are advertising, there are people reporting on a variety of sites about cut hours, lost jobs, school closings and smaller classes.  The are also threads about people being in Taiwan and having no luck even getting a laoban to acknowledge them, let alone get an interview or demo.
 
 Are there jobs?  Of course.  Are there a lot of jobs?  No.
 
 The fact is it just isn't worth the risk of financial ruin for an American to travel on credit into an unsure work situation.  I even tell my friends, if you want to come out, wait for a few months and see how things are.  Make you you have money.  Heck, TECO may not even be issuing visa to those who cannot show "enough money/assets" in their accounts.  Actually, does anyone know anyone who has been turned down for a visa lately?
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		| MomCat 
 
 
 Joined: 02 Dec 2004
 Posts: 297
 
 
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				|  Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 3:06 pm    Post subject: |   |  
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	  | timmyjames1976 wrote: |  
	  | And well golly gee, YOUR friends and acquaintances must be just enough of a sample size to shed light on the entire economic state of Taiwan.  And how many of them happened to be job hunting in the last three months?
 
 The fact is it just isn't worth the risk of financial ruin for an American to travel on credit into an unsure work situation.
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 I looked for and found a part time position last December (to replace one I left). A friend has picked up about 30K/mo in tutoring just since the end of New Years. But, as I've said, perhaps Hsinchu isn't like the rest of the island. Maybe next week the shoe'll drop.
 
 And, my friends may not represent the whole island but neither do anyone else's. Most things posted here are anecdotal and personal experience. I'm posting my experience. Just because it's different than yours does not make it untrue or invalid.
 
 I agree that it may not be wise to run up a lot of debt just to travel or escape an awful job but I don't feel it's my place to lecture someone about what they should or shouldn't do with their life. And really, an off season ticket can be had for about $800 (US) and living expenses for two months another $2000. $3000 in CC debt is not my definition of financial ruin.
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		| dangerousapple 
 
 
 Joined: 18 Apr 2006
 Posts: 292
 
 
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				|  Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:16 pm    Post subject: |   |  
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	  | MyTrunkshow wrote: |  
	  | 25% is a big drop in enrolment year on year. |  
 That's a 25% drop in new students enrolling, not total student numbers.  If we lost a quarter of our students I think that would reflect more on my school than the economy.
 
 In my neighborhood 4 schools have shut down in the last year.  I'm a little nervous, but I know in the end it will be good because once things start picking up there will be less competition.
 
 As a side note, I just lost one of my part-time Chinese staff.  Her husband keeps getting hit with those mandatory unpaid days off at his job, and she had to get a full-time job to help out.
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		| matchstick_man 
 
 
 Joined: 21 May 2003
 Posts: 244
 Location: Taiwan
 
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				|  Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 12:34 am    Post subject: |   |  
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				| The true measure of the economic crisis and its effects on ESL in Taiwan won't show, in terms of enrolments, until June/July.  School enrolments often drop or increase just after Chinese New Year. |  | 
	
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		| akmassager 
 
 
 Joined: 30 Nov 2008
 Posts: 38
 Location: Juneau, Alaska
 
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				|  Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 12:55 am    Post subject: you didn't read my post |   |  
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				| I DECIDED NOT TO GO TO TAIWAN!!! 
 With your lack of qualifications, I wouldn't sally forth to Taiwan now.  There are many qualified people here who are having problems finding work and making ends meet.  Just to give you an idea, around 600 Taiwanese Ph.ds are currently teaching in high schools across the island because they can't get jobs at universities!  One wonders if the money and time spent, plus the anxiety of getting a Ph.d, were all really worth it.  I'd say definitely not.  Why not look elsewhere?  China is still growing, as is Vietnam.  Everywhere else, bar the Middle East, is in the doldrums.[/quote]
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		| forest1979 
 
  
 Joined: 10 Jun 2007
 Posts: 507
 Location: SE Asia
 
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				|  Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 2:04 am    Post subject: |   |  
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				| A comment was made earlier that the Taiwanese value their kids' education - true - and that they would put that in front of things like holidays. Well in Hong Kong both kids classes and holidays are being cancelled. The recession is hitting very hard so I doubt that even by the summer their shall be much of an upturn. It's going to be difficult for anyone new coming to Taiwan until probably at least mid-2010. |  | 
	
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		| linzbc 
 
 
 Joined: 04 Feb 2009
 Posts: 29
 Location: Arlington, VA, US
 
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				|  Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 5:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Anywhere in China |   |  
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	  | forest1979 wrote: |  
	  | Well in Hong Kong both kids classes and holidays are being cancelled. The recession is hitting very hard so I doubt that even by the summer their shall be much of an upturn. |  
 So is China in a recession as well?  Is it fair to say that China is doing much better than Taiwan currently?
 
 
 
 
	  | akmassager wrote: |  
	  | There are plenty of jobs posted right here on this site. |  
 Could it be that there are more jobs posted from China simply because it is a larger country?
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		| forest1979 
 
  
 Joined: 10 Jun 2007
 Posts: 507
 Location: SE Asia
 
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				|  Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:54 am    Post subject: |   |  
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				| The law of averages says that a country of 1.2 billion people is going to have more jobs available than a country of 23 million. However, China has taken a battering in the past few months. How deep the slowing of the economy is no one truly know as the government keeps such information very close to its chest. Hong Kong however is a different place within the mass of China so what happens there is not always reflective of what happens in the Mainland but to generalise, people are certainly tighening their belts and the once free availability of TEFL jobs is drying up. |  | 
	
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