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Do you think the current EFL market is permanent? Temporary?
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Rooster_2006



Joined: 24 Sep 2007
Posts: 984

PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 12:30 pm    Post subject: Do you think the current EFL market is permanent? Temporary? Reply with quote

It's pretty glaringly obvious that the bad economy has brought a nasty job situation to EFL teachers in most of East Asia, especially in Japan and Taiwan, in which 20 people often apply for a single entry-level opening (eikaiwa or buxiban), and keeping from getting fired is harder than ever because of the number of people just waiting to take your job...

Those of us who have jobs (fortunately I have one) are often finding we aren't teaching as many hours as we'd like, and we're just treading water, financially.

Do you think the market will improve for us teachers in one year, five years, or ten years?

Or will it stay the same?

Or will it continue to get worse and worse to the point that anyone with less than an MA TESOL can't even find an eikaiwa job?

I don't know, so that's why I'm asking what you guys think. What are your predictions?
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Impossible to say, but the birthrate is not really going to change matters soon even if it hit positive values today. Schools are closing, they admit practically anyone in universities now, and the elementary schools are only going to have fewer students for a while. What do you think that means?
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ShioriEigoKyoushi



Joined: 21 Aug 2009
Posts: 364
Location: Japan

PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Text deleted

Last edited by ShioriEigoKyoushi on Fri Mar 19, 2010 2:07 am; edited 1 time in total
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norwalkesl



Joined: 22 Oct 2009
Posts: 366
Location: Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-China

PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EFL is a field where the Internet makes it much easier to jump into it in 2010 than prior. Old hands like John in the KSA were at this in the late 1960's and they always lament how the salaries are lower now.

Well of course they are - there are more people who know that the world is not a scary place and that living and working outside the US/Uk/EU is easy and fun to do. In 1970 you had to leap with little info. Now one can spend a month of spare time doing research on the Web and get very well informed.

More people in Anglo countries will be willing to try it or do it as a new career because they can find out info from us here and reduce that fear barrier to entry. The ease and lowered cost of air travel makes it easier to get to a job, the internet makes it easier to find a job, and email makes cheap/free communication with your new employer and friends and family back home a breeze.

There will always be positions for those who want to earn big money, but no one is just going to show up and get 12,000CNY for being white in 2010. This is a sign that the EFL market is beginning to mature. The high profit high margin product (jobs) are disappearing as the market adopts the tech in a widespread fashion. The millions of college graduates from the USA with no job prospects will be flooding into Asia for years to come. If one is serious a CELTA, DELTA and TEFL degree will make you a better candidate and the MA may become the standard outside the ME also.

Competiton cannot be stopped - wages will drop and more people will vie for your job.
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Imseriouslylost



Joined: 09 Nov 2009
Posts: 123
Location: Tokyo

PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 11:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

norwalkesl wrote:

Competiton cannot be stopped - wages will drop and more people will vie for your job.


Its good for the people already here, bad for people coming over. There is even a bit of competitiveness for jobs in Korea now where there hasn't been before but people who are already in country never have a difficult time finding work. I'm assuming its the same for Japan.
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flyer



Joined: 16 May 2003
Posts: 539
Location: Sapporo Japan

PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

but then,
because a lot of people think its not so good here now (chances of getting a job) that means, even if its true that there are less jobs, the fact that less teachers will come, could cancel it out to some extent (so to speak)
????
in theory at least
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dove



Joined: 01 Oct 2003
Posts: 271
Location: USA/Japan

PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I free-lance and I have seen more demand for private lessons because students don't want to pay the fees at big schools. However, gone are the days of 10,000 yen per hour private lessons, unless you are really lucky. With a work visa in hand it is possible to do pretty well financially, but it means hustling and commuting. It also means arranging your own insurance and taxes and apartment. It can be challenging, but I'd never go back to being a full-timer at one place.
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steki47



Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 1029
Location: BFE Inaka

PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Imseriouslylost wrote:
Its good for the people already here, bad for people coming over.


Why is it good for the people here? The shrinking market makes it harder for us to switch jobs, get salary raises, etc. It makes it easier for companies to throw you away at the drop of a hat.
If I may be positive for a second, the increased competition could help raise standards in the industry. As schools get pickier, they can ask for more qualified and experienced teachers.
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flyer



Joined: 16 May 2003
Posts: 539
Location: Sapporo Japan

PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 3:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dove wrote:
, but I'd never go back to being a full-timer at one place.


I don't know, I get 42man as a full timer with no phone calls, no over time most evenings and weekends free
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flyer wrote:
but then,
because a lot of people think its not so good here now (chances of getting a job) that means, even if its true that there are less jobs, the fact that less teachers will come, could cancel it out to some extent (so to speak)
????
in theory at least
I don't know about that, flyer. Been on the forums for over a decade, and it seems that in just the past couple of years, there are more people than ever trying to get over here as teachers without degrees or with totally unrelated experience (lawyers, IT employees, musicians, etc.). I don't have any numbers, but it just seems that nothing is stopping people from inquiring.

dove wrote:
I free-lance and I have seen more demand for private lessons because students don't want to pay the fees at big schools. However, gone are the days of 10,000 yen per hour private lessons, unless you are really lucky. With a work visa in hand it is possible to do pretty well financially, but it means hustling and commuting. It also means arranging your own insurance and taxes and apartment. It can be challenging, but I'd never go back to being a full-timer at one place.
But you must have already been here and made contacts and learned the lay of the land first, right? Newbies are handicapped in that regard, so I hope you aren't trying to paint a rosy picture that living a life of private lessons is easily doable.

Arranging one's own insurance and taxes is not that hard. The bureaucracy is already in place for the insurance, and you can get English advice for the latter. If you've been established here, you might even be able to stay in company sponsored (that's guaranteed, not company furnished or provided) housing. The hustling and commuting are the major hassles. Major!

steki47 wrote:
Why is it good for the people here? The shrinking market makes it harder for us to switch jobs, get salary raises, etc. It makes it easier for companies to throw you away at the drop of a hat.
That's all true, but I think flyer just means that if you are already established here, like I presume he is, then you have a tactical advantage over a newcomer. His remarks about "42 man as a full timer" need some explanation, but I think I've described what he may have meant.
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steki47



Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 1029
Location: BFE Inaka

PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:
steki47 wrote:
Why is it good for the people here? The shrinking market makes it harder for us to switch jobs, get salary raises, etc. It makes it easier for companies to throw you away at the drop of a hat.

That's all true, but I think flyer just means that if you are already established here, like I presume he is, then you have a tactical advantage over a newcomer.


That's what I was guessing. The current situation is not good for people already here, but it is better for those of us in Japan now.

Glenski wrote:
His remarks about "42 man as a full timer" need some explanation, but I think I've described what he may have meant.


Yeah, I was wondering about that (rather large) number. Uni work-sure. ALT plus a bunch of private students/PT-possible. Me, I'm in the latter group. Going for an MA, dreaming of being in the former.

Enough nitpicking for the morning! I am going shopping for a cheese fondue party this evening. Happy Holidays everyone!
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gaijinalways



Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 2279

PostPosted: Thu Dec 31, 2009 2:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flyer posted
Quote:
I don't know, I get 42man as a full timer with no phone calls, no over time most evenings and weekends free


I think he's referring to his monthly salary (420,000 yen), which is okay. I assume he also gets winter and summer bonuses which would raise his yearly income up a bit.

To answer the OP's question, I think it's still a tough market now, might be for a few years. As Glenski was stating, with the falling birthrate, uni work is getting harder to come by, but more elementary schools will need more teachers. Even for the part-time uni ronin like myself, it's getting tougher to keep our koma (class) numbers up. Just finally got the remainder of my schedule confirmed, on track for another busy year.

One offsetting facor is the push to start English language programs in elementary school. If you're willing to teach young kids, the demand is there. I'm not sure if I'm up for it anymore, if that's any encouragement for those thinking of coming here Cool .

One other caveat though, usually the pay for teaching tots is lower, though if you could land a job teaching rich brats, it might be okay if the parents are willing to foot the bill.
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womblingfree



Joined: 04 Mar 2006
Posts: 826

PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ShioriEigoKyoushi wrote:
Greater reliance on exports? Twisted Evil


Shiori

PS. What was the international language of business, again?


In Asia you'd be best off learning Chinese.
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TL



Joined: 07 Nov 2004
Posts: 76
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree. China has become Japan's largest trading partner and this relationship is growing. With shrinking household income, I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future parents stop paying for English lessons. I also think some of the money that would normally go to English language education will be diverted to Mandarin lessons.

If you follow the economic news regarding Japan, you can sense that the future is bleak. The new government just introduced a budget where the deficit will be greater than tax revenues! That's unheard of among developed nations. Can you imagine having an annual income of 3 million yen but spending 7 million yen every year?
The demographics are against the economy as well. By 2020, 40% of the population will be over 60! I personally don't think that the government will be able to afford more English teachers for the public school system when other areas will be short of funding (i.e. health care and pension system). I get a headache every time I think about the future of Japan. Sad
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="TL"]I agree. China has become Japan's largest trading partner and this relationship is growing. With shrinking household income, I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future parents stop paying for English lessons. I also think some of the money that would normally go to English language education will be diverted to Mandarin lessons.

Accoding to this article, "Most business people [in China] speak English".
http://www.cyborlink.com/besite/china.htm

This article says, "In the Asia-Pacific region, South Korea is the only top-ranked country where English is not commonly spoken in business settings."
http://dirp3.pids.gov.ph/ris/dps/pidsdps0436.pdf

Quote:
China has become Japan's largest trading partner
As of 2005 that meant about 21% of its imports came from China. But an equal amount came from the US and Europe combined (12% and 11%), so I wouldn't count out English just yet.

So, your statements about short of funding for other local concerns are important, but as for business concerns, English will always be high on the list. Think of the language of science, too. It's English.


Last edited by Glenski on Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:20 am; edited 1 time in total
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