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markcmc
Joined: 18 Jan 2010
Posts: 262
Location: Taiwan
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 Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 11:14 pm Post subject: |
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Who can really predict the future, but I do know that every time there is a recession in North America and Europe there is a flood of English teachers that spreads out around the world. I've been teaching for 20 years and seen this many times.
As long as the economies in North America and Europe do recover, then I'm sure that the market will become easier than it is now. If there are less children to teach, it's possible that single adults in the future will feel more of their money on self-improvement. And, who knows, they might want to spend more money on travel etc, and want more English classes. |
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Apsara
Joined: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 2142
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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| Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 12:49 am Post subject: |
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| prlester wrote: |
When did the fad happen and why did it go? with rap popularity you would think English would still be popular to read lyrics.
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The fad was late 80s to early/mid 90s- not sure what prompted it. The fad faded out because....that is what all fads do, especially in Japan. Apparently in the 80s because of a fad there were 18 million skiers here, now there are half that number. One of the big things now is running, long distance races etc- can't really say what prompted it.
Most people who are into rap (i.e. younger people probably still in school) aren't going to have the large sums of money needed to take eikaiwa lessons, and lessons aren't really needed to understand lyrics anyway, just a dictionary. |
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starteacher
Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 237
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| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 5:37 pm Post subject: |
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Everything has its ups and downs. Right now everything is down. Nothing anyone can do about it.
YES WE CAN ? 
Something will come. The EFL market is too big, it will just evolve. |
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Mr_Monkey
Joined: 11 Mar 2009
Posts: 661
Location: Kyuuuuuushuuuuuuu
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| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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| starteacher wrote: |
Everything has its ups and downs. Right now everything is down. Nothing anyone can do about it.
YES WE CAN ?
Something will come. The EFL market is too big, it will just evolve. |
I think it's far more likely to shrink as EFL moves away from ENOP (English for No Obvious Purpose), which has dominated in Japan for the last two decades - think soul-crushing Tuesday afternoon lessons with bored housewives who are buying a luxury item that they don't really need.
ELT in Japan will evolve, then, I suppose, but I'm of the opinion that what emerges will be a rather different beast - more purposeful and focussed for a start. Once Western economies start properly recovering from the recession, we might see the number of teachers to drop as the number of jobs available for young graduates rises at home.
At least, that's what I would like to happen. |
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seklarwia
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 1546
Location: Monkey onsen, Nagano
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| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Mr_Monkey wrote: |
Once Western economies start properly recovering from the recession, we might see the number of teachers to drop as the number of jobs available for young graduates rises at home.
At least, that's what I would like to happen. |
Are you just hating on us younger ones for our age?  Or are you talking qualified and experienced rather than just age. Let's assume not the latter, since greater age doesn't always equal greater qualifications or experience.
Unfortunately, it might just spell less older or mature-minded people coming over. If there are more jobs back home, older people who have lived a certain way of life for much longer (who may find change and adapting to a new way of life more difficult) and those who have family responsibilities will be less willing to uproot (or may have a spouse, etc who isn't willing to give up a good job back home) or may have children to think about.
It would need a huge improvement to conditions over here to appeal to these people if there are better jobs back home, but this would, of course, attract more of those annoying partying newly grads. |
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Mr_Monkey
Joined: 11 Mar 2009
Posts: 661
Location: Kyuuuuuushuuuuuuu
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| Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:39 pm Post subject: |
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| I freely admit that I'd rather have a few less wrinkles |
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Rooster_2006
Joined: 24 Sep 2007
Posts: 984
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 5:26 am Post subject: |
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I think this is all wishful thinking.
I'm sure that whalers said "this is a temporary problem" when the treaty against whaling, limiting the global whale catch to a few BWU, was signed.
I'm sure that just after Eli Whitney's cotton gin, the people who picked and sorted through seeds said "not to worry, once they realize these new-fangled machines just don't get all the seeds, they'll re-hire us."
I'm sure that Latin teachers once thought "no need to worry about the decline in jobs -- Latin is still the global language, spoken by all the elite and used all over the west!"
I call this "denial."
In the modern world, sectors are simply eliminated (or downsized so much that they are practically eliminated) all the time.
If it's a very big sector, society will actually care, and try to do something to absorb the laid-off workers, like when the construction industry is hit hard (for example, Korea's Green New Deal and the employment of construction workers to build a vast canal). Unfortunately, EFL is a fly on the back of China, Japan, and Korea. Since we are not viewed as having any inherent human right to be employed in said countries, no initiatives will be extended to help us transition, and most of us will either sink (the vast majority) or float (the bright few who managed to either get a PhD in education for the last few EFL jobs, or wiggled their ways into IT jobs, business jobs, the diplomatic corps, etc.).
Face it folks:
1. Declining birth rate
2. Declining relative importance of English to Chinese (English is still the best one to learn, but this will change)
3. Increased antipathy against foreign teachers
4. Vastly increased interest by westerners in coming to Asia and learning Asian languages
5. Vastly decreased job opportunities in western countries, and no matter what the politicians say, the economy is not improving |
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gaijinalways
Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 2279
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 6:28 am Post subject: |
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Rooster _2006 posted
| Quote: |
Face it folks:
1. Declining birth rate
2. Declining relative importance of English to Chinese (English is still the best one to learn, but this will change)
3. Increased antipathy against foreign teachers
4. Vastly increased interest by westerners in coming to Asia and learning Asian languages
5. Vastly decreased job opportunities in western countries, and no matter what the politicians say, the economy is not improving |
Yes, but 1# has been going on for a while, and now the new starting in 5th grade will be kicking off.
2# will come eventually, might be a while yet.
3# Where did you dig this up from, were you mugged or denied housing in Japan recently?
4# Still relatively low, though primary languages would be Chinese and Japanese. I think the rest of the Asian languages don't amount to much at present.
5# Oh my, we are pessimistic, aren't we? I think depends on the time frame you're looking at. This is the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression, so of course it will take a few years to recover. We also had a boom time prior to this happening, though obviously some of it was a unsustainable bubble of sorts. |
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Ryu Hayabusa
Joined: 08 Jan 2008
Posts: 182
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 8:18 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| 3. Increased antipathy against foreign teachers |
| Quote: |
| 3# Where did you dig this up from, were you mugged or denied housing in Japan recently? |
Rooster doesn't live in Japan. Korea, right, Rooster? |
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InTheKnow
Joined: 13 Jan 2010
Posts: 20
Location: greater Japan
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:02 am Post subject: the facts |
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triple post-- sorry.
Last edited by InTheKnow on Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:07 am; edited 1 time in total |
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InTheKnow
Joined: 13 Jan 2010
Posts: 20
Location: greater Japan
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:02 am Post subject: the facts |
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Technical difficulties: Stand by.
Last edited by InTheKnow on Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:08 am; edited 1 time in total |
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InTheKnow
Joined: 13 Jan 2010
Posts: 20
Location: greater Japan
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:03 am Post subject: the facts |
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| Rooster_2006 wrote: |
| In the modern world, sectors are simply eliminated (or downsized so much that they are practically eliminated) all the time. |
Pretty accurate there.
| Quote: |
| If it's a very big sector, society will actually care, and try to do something to absorb the laid-off workers... Unfortunately, EFL is a brown log buzzing with flies on the front porches of China, Japan, and Korea. Since we are not viewed as having any inherent human right to be employed in said countries, no initiatives will be extended to help us transition, and most of us will either sink (the vast majority) or float (the bright few who managed to either get a PhD in education for the last few EFL jobs, or wiggled their ways into IT jobs, business jobs, the diplomatic corps, etc.). |
All true, again.
| Quote: |
Face it folks:
1. Declining birth rate
2. Declining relative importance of English to Chinese (English is still the best one to learn, but this will change)
3. Increased antipathy against foreign teachers
4. Vastly increased interest by westerners in coming to Asia and learning Asian languages
5. Vastly decreased job opportunities in western countries, and no matter what the politicians say, the economy is not improving |
1. Yes
2. No, but HOW it will be taught will put a lot of backpacker "teachers" out of work, as we are seeing now. English as the vital-to-know international language will continue as such.
3. Yes, we've worn out our welcome, sorry to say. I still get a chuckle from the dim bulb Western guys who write in their personal ads for Asian chicks: "Blond hair, blue eyes". Puh-leeease.
4. No. Most are still lazy about learning ANY second language. Some exceptions, but overall-- no.
5. Yes. No question about it. Also, China isn't through kicking ass yet. Economically and worldwide, they are the future force who needs a wide berth. |
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Rooster_2006
Joined: 24 Sep 2007
Posts: 984
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| Ryu Hayabusa wrote: |
| Quote: |
| 3. Increased antipathy against foreign teachers |
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| 3# Where did you dig this up from, were you mugged or denied housing in Japan recently? |
Rooster doesn't live in Japan. Korea, right, Rooster? |
Well, actually I moved to Taiwan. Things are better here than they were back in Korea.
Still, there's a public sentiment in ANY EFL country that English teachers are overpaid, lazy, uneducated, and just plain unqualified. Even in Taiwan where the competition is 20:1 for even a basic buxiban job, the local Taiwanese still think it's easy to become an English teacher and doesn't require a degree (both are untrue -- many people have to leave because they can't find a job, and the bare minimum to teach in Taiwan is an AA+TEFL).
While it's true that I've merely visited Japan six times as a visitor on a landing permit and never lived there, after nearly nine years in Asia spread among three different countries, I find it hard to believe that the attitudes towards English teachers are vastly different in Japan than they are from Korea (I lived there for five years), Taiwan (I am here right now -- between eight and nine months), China (I lived there for three years), or anywhere else. |
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seklarwia
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 1546
Location: Monkey onsen, Nagano
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Rooster_2006 wrote: |
Still, there's a public sentiment in ANY EFL country that English teachers are overpaid, lazy, uneducated, and just plain unqualified. Even in Taiwan where the competition is 20:1 for even a basic buxiban job, the local Taiwanese still think it's easy to become an English teacher and doesn't require a degree (both are untrue -- many people have to leave because they can't find a job, and the bare minimum to teach in Taiwan is an AA+TEFL).
While it's true that I've merely visited Japan six times as a visitor on a landing permit and never lived there, after nearly nine years in Asia spread among three different countries, I find it hard to believe that the attitudes towards English teachers are vastly different in Japan than they are from Korea (I lived there for five years), Taiwan (I am here right now -- between eight and nine months), China (I lived there for three years), or anywhere else. |
I lived in China and in my city (a town with only 4 million, according to my students) I was never on the receiving end of any antipathy. Our foreigner teachers were given somewhat celeb status. Which is why as soon as our city heard they were getting the olympic torch, Mr Mayor came a knocking to try and get some of us involved in the carrying. And whilst I imagine there is a lot more indifference to foreigners in the larger cities here in Japan, the locals in my "city" have been nothing but welcoming. I've also travelled around Asia for business purposes on my father's behalf.
Korea (and to a lesser extent HK) is notorious for it's treatment of foreigners. But have you really been on that much of the bad vibe receiving end across much of Asia? |
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Rooster_2006
Joined: 24 Sep 2007
Posts: 984
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| Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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| seklarwia wrote: |
| Rooster_2006 wrote: |
Still, there's a public sentiment in ANY EFL country that English teachers are overpaid, lazy, uneducated, and just plain unqualified. Even in Taiwan where the competition is 20:1 for even a basic buxiban job, the local Taiwanese still think it's easy to become an English teacher and doesn't require a degree (both are untrue -- many people have to leave because they can't find a job, and the bare minimum to teach in Taiwan is an AA+TEFL).
While it's true that I've merely visited Japan six times as a visitor on a landing permit and never lived there, after nearly nine years in Asia spread among three different countries, I find it hard to believe that the attitudes towards English teachers are vastly different in Japan than they are from Korea (I lived there for five years), Taiwan (I am here right now -- between eight and nine months), China (I lived there for three years), or anywhere else. |
I lived in China and in my city (a town with only 4 million, according to my students) I was never on the receiving end of any antipathy. Our foreigner teachers were given somewhat celeb status. Which is why as soon as our city heard they were getting the olympic torch, Mr Mayor came a knocking to try and get some of us involved in the carrying. And whilst I imagine there is a lot more indifference to foreigners in the larger cities here in Japan, the locals in my "city" have been nothing but welcoming. I've also travelled around Asia for business purposes on my father's behalf.
Korea (and to a lesser extent HK) is notorious for it's treatment of foreigners. But have you really been on that much of the bad vibe receiving end across much of Asia? |
Hong Kong isn't that bad. As for the "antipathy" to which I'm referring...
I'm not necessarily talking about racist assaults in the street, vigilante "justice" like Korea's Anti English Spectrum, or anything like that.
When I say "antipathy on the part of the locals towards English teachers" in the context of the EFL market declining, what I mean is that although they may not say it to your face, they quietly disapprove of Johnny English Teacher and wish their country didn't let so many in.
You know how your colleagues and friends are always telling you "you're so lucky?" Well, if you read between the lines, they're really saying "you're overpaid considering what you do."
It may sound like praise, but deep down inside, many people like that go out and vote for leaders who will cut the English education budget, vote for more restrictive visas, etc.
Nope, when I say "antipathy," I don't mean the KKK. I don't mean the insane things that happen to English teachers in Korea (unless we're talking about Korea). I'm just talking about silent, behind-your-back disapproval of the average English teacher (especially all the OTHER English teachers who just don't happen to be you) which WILL make it harder for us to find work in the future. |
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