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Growing concern for Asian markets and what that means to you

 
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fishcado



Joined: 23 Aug 2006
Posts: 21

PostPosted: Tue May 18, 2010 5:04 pm    Post subject: Growing concern for Asian markets and what that means to you Reply with quote

Saw this article today in the New York Times regarding the European Union's problems seeping their way to China (along with Hong Kong). I guess the question is what concern do you have about your current employment in the next year and do you think you will need to start looking elsewhere if things start getting bad or are you seeing signs of it already?

New York Times 5/18/10: Chinese Stocks Retreat Abruptly From 2009 Gains

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/19/business/global/19yuan.html?ref=business

This story is no surprise but it has definitely put a damper on my plans to go to HK for the moment.
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dandan



Joined: 25 Jun 2003
Posts: 183
Location: Hong Kong

PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 6:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To be honest, if you're thinking of coming to HK to work in banking you're probably on the wrong forum, mate.
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RiverMystic



Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Posts: 1986

PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The implications extend far beyond banking, Dandan. Things are uncertain, and it could go either way. I would not be surprised if, in the medium term, there was a real downturn in the world economy. People are still going along as if nothing has changed, and the lessons have not been learned. In this part of the world people are so tunnel visioned, they can barely look up from texting on their mobiles to take a look at the world beyond their noses. That's not meant to be demeaning, but people here exist on tightly structured routines, have a low tolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty, and to generalise, they are ill-equipped to deal with change.

I predict a bumpy ride for all. I doubt the ESL industry will escape unscathed.
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mdovell



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 131

PostPosted: Fri May 21, 2010 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We've seen downturns before. I think ESL will last quite some time. I'm not saying that the world would all speak english but the fact of the matter is it's a major language. If they don't wish to speak it directly some would agree to communicate with it indirectly. For example it would make more sense to each Arabs and israelis english rather than to each each others language to the other.

Even if china's property bubble pops there's still demand around the world for english speakers.

There are still other countries that are just now starting to open up..libya opened up...iran would be interesting eventually if it does...africa is gradually developing..the worlds economy might be at the max with hewestern world but when the developed develops more that's where the growth is
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dandan



Joined: 25 Jun 2003
Posts: 183
Location: Hong Kong

PostPosted: Sat May 22, 2010 4:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, history so far has shown you to be completely wrong on all counts River Mystic, both on the effect of economic downturns on the education industry in HK and on HK peoples' ability to adapt to change.

Petty prejudices are rarely an accurate guide to events in the real world.
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RiverMystic



Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Posts: 1986

PostPosted: Sat May 22, 2010 6:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dandan wrote:

Petty prejudices are rarely an accurate guide to events in the real world.


Agreed - and a broader take on History beyond the short term shows entire nations, economies and civilisations make shifts, and that typically, issues which are vital, but not urgent, are the ones that are not sufficiently addressed. My comment is addressed at all peoples of all nations, not merely Hong Kong.

And, as for capacity to adapt, if you read a little into the science of it, you'll find that empirical measures show that developed East Asian economies are the least tolerant of change and ambiguity. A recent study showed Hong Kong has the fifth lowest ranking on the planet. Singapore has the lowest. Those are facts, not "petty prejudices". Governments would be wise to address these issue with policy changes - there is no need to take it personally, as you have, and start berating at the messenger.
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sojourner



Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Posts: 738
Location: nice, friendly, easy-going (ALL) Peoples' Republic of China

PostPosted: Sat May 22, 2010 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RiverMystic,

Could you please provide us with a reference/link to the study in question.

Many thanks,

Peter
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RiverMystic



Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Posts: 1986

PostPosted: Sat May 22, 2010 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

soujourner, see the work of Geert Hofstede, esp. Culture's Consequences (also referenced in Malcolm Gladwell's Outliers). He studied "uncertainty avoidance". - the countries most reliant on rules and plans and most likely to stick to procedure regardless of the circumstances. There were 53 countries studied - Hong Kong finished 49th. I don't think there is any need to take this personally, as anyone who has worked in HK's education system, or the workforce in general knows the problem all too well. Singapore is actively addressing the problem, or at least trying to, with its creativity initiatives. However the problem is basically cultural, and that is not so easy to change.

RM
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sojourner



Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Posts: 738
Location: nice, friendly, easy-going (ALL) Peoples' Republic of China

PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 6:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many thanks, RiverMystic, for the info re Hofstede.Will definitely be doing some research on the subject in question !

Peter
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